The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings

Producer prices jump 1.3 percent, the hottest since March 2022, and goods set a series record

Final demand producer prices rose 1.3 percent in September against 0.5 percent in August, the largest monthly advance since March 2022, and 6.3 percent over twelve months, the largest since December 2022. Goods rose 2.6 percent, the largest increase since the series began in December 2009, with final demand energy up 10.8 percent accounting for over 80 percent of it and gasoline alone, up 20.3 percent, for half. Core final demand — less foods, energy and trade services — rose 0.5 percent on the month and 5.0 percent on the year. Set against the CPI released the day before, where consumer gasoline rose 9.1 percent, the gap has a name in this release: margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3 percent, so the forecourt took a large part of the wholesale rise rather than passing it on.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 15, 2026 · The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

Editor's note: Hand-written from the release on 2026-10-16. The quoted span, like every quote taken from this release, differs from the page only in BLS’s hard line wrapping.

Two-year Treasury yield rises to 4.93 percent

Reuters reported that the U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.93 percent. CNBC reported that the two-year Treasury yield gained more than 10 basis points to 4.895 percent.

• Reuters · Oct 14, 2026 · U.S. two-year yields, which are sensitive to the outlook for interest rate moves, rose 14 basis points to 4.93% .
• CNBC · Oct 14, 2026 · The 2-year Treasury — which closely tracks the Fed's interest rate decisions — gained more than 10 basis points to 4.895%.

Editor's note: Both cited pages state the respective two-year Treasury yield moves and levels. The Reuters page is dated October 14, 2026, and the CNBC URL and article context support the stated event date.

Futures move to a 43.7 percent chance of an October rate increase

Odds of a quarter-point increase on 28 October rose to 43.7 percent from 22.1 percent the day before, on CME FedWatch pricing. Futures put a hold at about 49 percent, up from 19 percent before the report, leaving the meeting close to a coin flip between holding and raising.

• CNBC · Oct 14, 2026 · Odds for an October 28 quarter-point hike in the fed funds rate — currently 3.75% to 4.00% — increased to 43.7% from just 22.1% a day ago, according to futures trading measured by CME's FedWatch tool.
• Reuters · Oct 14, 2026 · Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing about a 49% chance that the central bank will keep the policy rate in its current 3.75%-4% range at its meeting in two weeks, up from 19% before the report.

Editor's note: CNBC reports 43.7% odds of an October 28 quarter-point hike, while the Reuters article reports about a 49% chance of keeping the target range unchanged. Both pages are dated October 14, 2026.

Federal Register publishes memorandum scheduling Cook hearing

The Federal Register published a presidential memorandum concerning a committee of inquiry into allegations against Lisa Cook. The memorandum directs the committee to conduct an in-person hearing on November 5, 2026.

• Executive Office of the President, Federal Register · Oct 14, 2026 · The Committee shall, on November 5, 2026, conduct an in-person hearing to consider the evidence and allegations against Governor Cook.
• Reuters · Oct 13, 2026 · Earlier this month Trump announced a fresh ‌inquiry into ​Cook and the appointment of a three-person committee to ⁠hold a hearing.

Editor's note: The Federal Register page identifies the document as a presidential memorandum published on October 14, 2026, establishing a committee to investigate allegations against Lisa Cook. It directs the committee to hold an in-person hearing on November 5, 2026.

September CPI accelerates to 3.7 percent, and gasoline is over half of the monthly rise

The CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in September against 0.4 percent in August, and 3.7 percent over twelve months against 3.4 percent through August. Core inflation, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent on the year. The gasoline index rose 9.1 percent in September and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase, with energy up 20.4 percent over the year — the Gulf disruption arriving in the headline number the Fed has to answer for.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 14, 2026 · The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.

result of Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.

Cook's lawyer challenges White House inquiry process

Abbe Lowell challenged the inquiry process in a letter on behalf of Lisa Cook. The letter said the process did not respect the appearance or history of independence.

• Reuters · Oct 13, 2026 · A hearing with demonstrably biased ⁠members, unspecified additional allegations, and an unclear schedule for the disclosure ​of any additional evidence – with no explanation for why it was not previously produced – is not ​a process that respects the appearance or history of independence

responded to Trump establishes committee to investigate Lisa Cook.

Editor's note: The Reuters report says Abbe Lowell challenged the objectivity of the White House probe in a letter on Lisa Cook’s behalf. It includes the quoted statement that the process did not respect the appearance or history of independence and is dated October 13, 2026.

Williams says one further 2026 rate increase may be appropriate

John C. Williams said it may be appropriate for the Federal Open Market Committee to raise rates one more time in 2026. Williams is a permanent voting member of the committee.

• CNBC · Oct 13, 2026 · I haven't changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike

Editor's note: CNBC reports that Williams said one more rate hike this year may be appropriate and identifies him as a permanent FOMC voting member.

Hammack says restrictive policy stance remains appropriate

Beth Hammack said a restrictive monetary-policy stance was appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent. CNBC reported that her comments implied further interest-rate increases could occur.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland · Oct 12, 2026 · Considering all the inputs that factor into my reaction function, a restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation.
• CNBC · Oct 12, 2026 · Hammack's comments implied that more interest rate hikes could be on the horizon.

Editor's note: Both cited pages support the summary. The Cleveland Fed page is dated 2026-10-12, and CNBC’s cited page contains the stated implication about possible additional rate hikes.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.229 percent

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than four basis points to 5.229 percent. CNBC reported that it had reached its highest level since 2002 earlier that week.

• CNBC · Oct 8, 2026 · The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down more than 4 basis points at 5.229% after reaching its highest level since 2002 this week.

Editor's note: The CNBC page states that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down more than four basis points at 5.229% and had reached its highest level since 2002 that week.

Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rate of 7.40 percent

Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40 percent as of October 8, 2026. The rate was 7.28 percent the prior week.

• Freddie Mac · Oct 8, 2026 · The 30-year FRM averaged 7.40% as of October 8, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 7.28%.

Editor's note: Freddie Mac’s cited release states that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40% as of October 8, 2026, up from 7.28% the prior week.

Waller anticipates additional rate increases if data meet expectations

Christopher J. Waller said he anticipated additional rate increases if economic data continued as expected. He said there was flexibility over when those increases would occur.

• Federal Reserve Board · Oct 8, 2026 · If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal.
• Axios · Oct 8, 2026 · But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur.

Editor's note: The Federal Reserve speech dated October 8, 2026 contains both quoted statements and supports the summary. Axios also reports the same remarks.

Futures price 85 percent odds of a December rate increase

Federal-funds futures prices implied an 85 percent probability of at least one rate increase by the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. The same prices put the probability of two increases by that meeting at nearly 20 percent.

• Federal Reserve Board · Oct 8, 2026 · According to futures market prices for the federal funds rate as of yesterday, traders see an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the FOMC's December meeting and nearly 20 percent chance of two hikes.

Editor's note: The Federal Reserve speech states that, as of the prior day, futures prices showed an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the December FOMC meeting and nearly a 20 percent chance of two hikes. Since the speech is dated October 8, 2026, its reference to “yesterday” supports the node date of October 7, 2026.

Trump establishes committee to investigate Lisa Cook

Donald Trump established a committee of inquiry to investigate allegations that Lisa D. Cook made false statements in connection with mortgage instruments. Associated Press reported that the committee was part of Trump’s effort to remove Cook from the Federal Reserve Board.

• The White House · Oct 7, 2026 · I hereby establish a committee of inquiry (Committee) to investigate allegations that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook made false statements in connection with one or more mortgage instruments.
• Associated Press via PBS NewsHour · Oct 9, 2026 · President Donald Trump opened another chapter in his effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Friday by establishing a "committee of inquiry" to investigate allegations that she made false statements in mortgage applications.

was answered by Cook's lawyer challenges White House inquiry process.

Editor's note: The White House memorandum dated October 7, 2026 establishes the committee to investigate alleged false statements connected with mortgage instruments. PBS NewsHour’s Associated Press report describes it as part of Trump’s effort to fire Cook.

September minutes discuss preparation for Treasury-market dysfunction

The September FOMC minutes disclosed discussion of preparing for possible Treasury-market dysfunction. Participants suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools while limiting its footprint in the Treasury market.

• Federal Reserve Board · Oct 7, 2026 · “They suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools for addressing market dysfunction, should it occur, while limiting the Federal Reserve's footprint in the Treasury market.”

Editor's note: The cited September 15–16, 2026 FOMC minutes state that participants discussed planning for market stress and suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve’s strategy, communications, and tools for possible market dysfunction while limiting its Treasury-market footprint. The page lists its last update as October 7, 2026.

September minutes show most participants expected another 2026 increase

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting said most participants expected another increase in the federal-funds target range would likely be appropriate by year-end. The minutes were released on October 7.

• Federal Reserve Board · Oct 7, 2026 · “With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.”

Editor's note: Repaired in review: the Federal Reserve's own minutes carry the claim and its quote was found. The Associated Press source was removed because the quote attributed to it is not on that page.

New York Fed reports one-year inflation expectations of 3.9 percent

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that median one-year inflation expectations increased to 3.9 percent in September. Median three-year inflation expectations increased to 3.3 percent.

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Oct 7, 2026 · “Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% at the one-year-ahead horizon and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% at the three-year-ahead horizon.”

Editor's note: The cited New York Fed press release states that September median one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% and three-year expectations rose to 3.3%. It is dated 2026-10-07.

Schmid says the Fed has work to do on its policy rate

Jeffrey Schmid said the Federal Reserve remained focused on its short-term policy rate. He said the Fed had work to do on that rate.

• Global Trade Review · Oct 6, 2026 · “But I think for us, we focus purely on that short rate, and I think we have some work to do on the short rate.”

Editor's note: The cited page identifies Jeffrey Schmid and states that the Fed focuses on the short rate and has work to do on it. The page does not provide an event date supporting 2026-10-06.

Daly says further rate increases depend on inflation shocks

Mary C. Daly said she supported the September interest-rate increase because inflation risks had risen. She said whether additional increases would be needed depended on whether inflation shocks faded or compounded.

• Axios · Oct 6, 2026 · “Whether more will be needed depends on the same set of conditions ... that I mentioned,” she says.

Editor's note: Repaired in review: Axios carries both claims and its quote was found. The Investing.com source was removed because its page could not be read and the quote attributed to it is not on it.

Treasury yields end higher after the September payroll report

The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.28 percent and the two-year Treasury yield near 4.83 percent. Reuters reported the 10-year yield at 5.281 percent and the two-year yield at 4.827 percent late in the session.

• Reuters via MarketScreener · Oct 2, 2026 · “The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last up 4.72 basis points at 5.281%, while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, was up 3.98 bps at 4.827%.”
• Kiplinger · Oct 2, 2026 · “The 10-year Treasury yield (+4.5 bps, 5.279%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+2.5 bps, 5.628%) followed similar trajectories.”

Editor's note: The page states that the benchmark 10-year yield was 5.281% and the 2-year yield was 4.827%, matching the summary and quoted text. It was published on 2026-10-02 and reports the market action on Oct. 2.

Futures imply a 22.7 percent chance of an October Fed rate increase

Federal-funds futures pricing implied a 22.7 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that the probability had been 24.4 percent in the prior session and 64.2 percent a week earlier.

• Reuters via MarketScreener · Oct 2, 2026 · “The weaker-than-anticipated data pulled down expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its meeting at the end of October to 22.7%, according to CME FedWatch, from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier.”
• Kiplinger · Oct 2, 2026 · “According to CME FedWatch, price action in the federal funds futures market indicates a 22.7% probability the Fed hikes rate by 25 basis points at the October Fed meeting, down from 64.2% a week ago.”

result of September payrolls rise 29,000 and unemployment reaches 4.2 percent.

Editor's note: The page states that CME FedWatch put the probability of an at-least-25-basis-point October Fed rate hike at 22.7%, down from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier. It was published on 2026-10-02 and describes the event as occurring on that date.

September payrolls rise 29,000 and unemployment reaches 4.2 percent

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 2, 2026 · “Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
• Axios · Oct 2, 2026 · “The economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, the Labor Department said on Friday.”

led to Futures imply a 22.7 percent chance of an October Fed rate increase.

Editor's note: The BLS release dated October 2, 2026 reports September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. The quoted sentence appears on the page.

Trump says he wants Warsh to vote as Trump wants on rates

Donald Trump said he wanted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to vote as Trump wanted on interest rates. The statement followed Warsh's participation in the September rate increase.

• The Business Times, reporting Reuters and Bloomberg · Oct 2, 2026 · “Asked about his comments later on Thursday, Trump said he wants Warsh to ‘vote the way he wants.’”

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Editor's note: The page states that, later on Thursday (Oct 1), Trump said he wanted Warsh to “vote the way he wants.” It also says the Fed raised rates at its mid-September meeting, although it describes the vote as unanimous rather than Warsh merely participating.

Kashkari expects further rate increases but is open on October timing

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected further rate increases but had no strong view on whether the next increase should occur at the end of October. His September projections included one additional quarter-point increase in 2026 and another in 2027.

• The Business Times, reporting Reuters and Bloomberg · Oct 2, 2026 · “I don’t have a strong view” as to whether the next hike should happen at month’s end.

Editor's note: The page reports that Kashkari had no strong view on whether the next hike should occur at month’s end and that his forecast called for one additional hike this year and another next year. It was published on 2026-10-02 and describes his Reuters interview as occurring on Thursday, 2026-10-01.

Logan says the target range needs at least 50 more basis points

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she estimated that the federal-funds target range needed to rise by at least another 50 basis points. She described September's increase as a first step and said policy needed to become modestly restrictive.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · Oct 1, 2026 · “Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals.”

Editor's note: The page is readable and states that Logan estimated the target range needed to rise an additional 50 basis points or more. It is dated October 1, 2026 and also says the September increase was an important first step and that policy needed to become restrictive.

Jefferson says future policy changes should await further assessment

Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said future policy adjustments should be based on data trends, the outlook, and the balance of risks. He said he supported September's quarter-point increase and that policymakers may need more time to assess inflation's return to target.

• Federal Reserve Board · Oct 1, 2026 · “As we look ahead, my view is that any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Editor's note: The speech is dated October 1, 2026. It states that Jefferson supported the September quarter-point increase and that future policy adjustments should depend on data trends, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks; it also says policymakers may need more time to assess inflation’s return to target.

Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rate at 7.28 percent

Freddie Mac released results from its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The survey showed that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 7.28 percent.

• Freddie Mac · Oct 1, 2026 · Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey ® (PMMS ®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 7.28%.

Editor's note: The Media Room page lists “Mortgage Rates Average 7.28%” dated October 1, 2026 and states that Freddie Mac released PMMS results showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28%.

Initial unemployment claims fall to 197,000

The U.S. Department of Labor reported 197,000 seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for the week ended September 26. The level was 1,000 lower than the prior week's revised level.

• U.S. Department of Labor · Oct 1, 2026 · In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level.
• Reuters · Oct 1, 2026 · Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ended September 26, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Editor's note: The release states that seasonally adjusted initial claims were 197,000 for the week ending September 26, down 1,000 from the prior week's revised level. It was published October 1, 2026.

Trump says Warsh should have opposed the September rate increase

Donald Trump said he would probably have voted against the Federal Reserve Board if he were Kevin Warsh. He said Warsh should have voted against the Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates while saying he did not hold Warsh personally responsible.

• Bloomberg Law · Oct 1, 2026 · I don’t blame Kevin Warsh. I probably would have voted against the board if I were him,
• Quartz · Oct 1, 2026 · President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh should have voted against the central bank's recent decision to raise interest rates, but added that he does not hold Warsh personally responsible for the move.

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Editor's note: The page supports the reported remarks and says Trump made them in an interview published Thursday. It does not provide an explicit event date that confirms the node's October 2026 date.

August headline PCE inflation was 3.4 percent year over year

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from August 2025 to August 2026. Kiplinger reported that core PCE increased 3.0 percent year over year and 0.2 percent month over month.

• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Sep 30, 2026 · From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.4 percent.
• Kiplinger · Sep 30, 2026 · Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices from the equation, was up 3.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month.

Editor's note: The BEA release states that the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from the same month one year earlier and that core PCE increased 3.0 percent year over year and 0.2 percent from the preceding month. The release is dated September 30, 2026 and reports August 2026 data.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.293 percent

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.293 percent, its highest level since June 2007. Reuters reported that the 30-year yield reached 5.6206 percent, its highest level since June 2002.

• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.293% — its highest level since June 2007.”

Editor's note: The article states that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.293%, its highest level since June 2007, and that the 30-year yield reached 5.6206%, its highest since June 2002. It is dated September 29, 2026.

October rate-hike odds fall to 51.5 percent

Futures-implied odds of at least a quarter-point increase at the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting fell to 51.5 percent. Reuters reported that the odds had been nearly 70 percent earlier in the session and declined after Williams's comments.

• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its October meeting declined to 51.5%, according to CME FedWatch, in the wake of Williams’ comments, from nearly 70% earlier in the session.”

responded to Williams says there is no urgency for another rate increase.

Editor's note: The page states that CME FedWatch expectations for at least a 25-basis-point October Fed rate hike declined to 51.5% from nearly 70% after Williams' comments. It is dated September 29, 2026, matching the node date.

Goolsbee warns inflation above target is playing with fire

Austan Goolsbee said inflation remaining above target for five and a half years was "playing with fire." He said persistent supply shocks could require a policy response.

• Investing.com · Sep 29, 2026 · “The fact we have been 5-1/2 years above inflation target is playing with fire,” Goolsbee said Tuesday.
• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “Goolsbee saying that allowing inflation to stay above the Fed’s target for 5-1/2 years is ‘playing with fire.’”

Editor's note: The page states that Austan Goolsbee called being above the inflation target for 5-1/2 years "playing with fire" and says lasting supply shocks may require a Fed response. It was published September 29, 2026, matching the node date.

Barr says further policy adjustments are likely

Michael S. Barr said his base case was that further policy adjustments would likely be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said inflation risks had increased while labor-market risks had receded.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 29, 2026 · “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”
• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “While the Fed’s Williams expressed patience for more rate hikes, other policymakers took a more hawkish stance, with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr saying more hikes are likely needed.”

Editor's note: The page identifies the speech as delivered by Governor Michael S. Barr on September 29, 2026. It states that inflation risks had increased while labor-market risks had receded, followed by the quoted statement about further policy adjustments.

Williams says there is no urgency for another rate increase

John C. Williams said the September policy action gave policymakers time to gather more information before another decision. He said one further increase could be appropriate late in 2026 if his forecast proved correct.

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York · Sep 29, 2026 · “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information.”
• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “Williams said the US central bank has time to weigh the data before deciding when to hike interest rates again.”

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. was answered by October rate-hike odds fall to 51.5 percent.

Editor's note: The speech is dated September 29, 2026, and Williams says the September policy action removes urgency while allowing time to gather information. It also states that one further upward adjustment may be appropriate late in 2026 if the economy evolves broadly as he forecasts.

August job openings decline to 7.079 million

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.079 million job openings in August, down 256,000 from July. Hires and total separations changed little during the month.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 29, 2026 · “The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
• Reuters · Sep 29, 2026 · “The Labor Department said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, that job openings, a measure of labor demand, had dropped by 256,000 to 7.079 million in August, below the 7.225 million estimate of economists polled by Reuters.”

Editor's note: The page reports 7.079 million August job openings, down 256,000 from July, and says hires changed little while total separations were unchanged. It was released on 2026-09-29.

Cook sees continued inflation pressure in coming months

Lisa D. Cook said AI-related demand, higher oil prices, and Middle East supply disruptions would continue to pressure inflation in coming months. She said future rate adjustments would depend on the economy's response to the September increase and incoming inflation and labor-market data.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 28, 2026 · “Furthermore, in coming months I expect to see continued pressure on inflation from the AI buildout, as discussed today, and from the pass-through of higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions associated with the conflict in the Middle East.”

result of The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil. result of Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.

Editor's note: The page is readable and is a September 28, 2026 speech by Governor Lisa D. Cook. It contains the quoted statement verbatim in substance and says future rate adjustments will be informed by the economy's response to prior policy actions and forthcoming inflation and labor data.

Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rate of 7.03 percent

Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03 percent on September 24, 2026. The rate was 6.95 percent a week earlier, while the average 15-year fixed rate rose to 6.42 percent from 6.26 percent.

• Freddie Mac · Sep 24, 2026 · “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.95%.”

Editor's note: The page states that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, versus 6.95% the prior week. It also states that the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.42%, up from 6.26%.

John C. Williams says tighter monetary policy is coming

John C. Williams said another rate increase by year-end could be appropriate. Reuters reported that he referred to September projections showing one further increase as the median path.

• Reuters via MarketScreener · Sep 24, 2026 · “Speaking in London, New York Fed President John Williams also suggested tighter monetary policy is coming.”

Editor's note: The page states that John Williams said another rate hike by year-end may be appropriate and cites projections released the prior week showing a rate increase. It was published on 2026-09-24, matching the node date.

Anna Paulson says modest further tightening may be warranted

Anna Paulson said modest additional tightening could be warranted if conditions evolved as she expected. She said she supported the September 25-basis-point increase because underlying inflation had made little or no progress while growth and labor-market conditions had firmed.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia · Sep 24, 2026 · “Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.”

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Editor's note: The speech is dated September 24, 2026, and states that Paulson supported a 25-basis-point rate increase because underlying inflation showed little to no progress while growth and labor-market conditions strengthened. It includes the quoted statement about modest further tightening.

Michael S. Barr says further policy adjustments may be needed

Michael S. Barr said further monetary-policy adjustments would probably be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said strong growth, a solid labor market, and inflation above target had changed the balance of risks and led him to support the September increase.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 23, 2026 · “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Editor's note: The page is a September 23, 2026 speech by Governor Michael S. Barr. It states that strong growth, a solid labor market, and above-target inflation changed the balance of risks, that he supported the prior week's policy-rate increase, and includes the quoted sentence verbatim.

Susan Collins cites insufficient inflation progress after rate increase

Susan Collins said persistent inflation and renewed Middle East conflict were reasons she supported the September rate increase. She penciled in another rate increase later in 2026 and expected rates to remain unchanged in 2027.

• AP News · Sep 21, 2026 · “I did not see the inflation progress I was hoping to see.”

responded to FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. result of Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.

Editor's note: The AP article says Susan Collins cited stubborn inflation and renewed Middle East fighting as reasons for supporting the September rate increase, projected another increase later in 2026, and expected rates to remain unchanged in 2027. It is dated September 21, 2026, and includes the quoted statement.

Federal Reserve Board raises interest on reserve balances to 3.90%

The Federal Reserve Board unanimously raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90%. The change took effect on September 17, 2026.

• Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026 · The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective September 17, 2026.

Editor's note: The page states that the Board voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective September 17, 2026. The quoted language appears on the page.

Trump says he told Warsh to vote with the Board

Donald Trump said he told Kevin Warsh to vote with the Federal Reserve Board because the outcome would not change. Axios reported Trump's statement on September 17.

• Axios · Sep 17, 2026 · I talked to Kevin. I said, 'You might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter,'

Editor's note: The Axios article published September 17, 2026 reports that Trump made the quoted remark late Wednesday, September 16, and attributes it to his discussion with Kevin Warsh.

Warsh says underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved

Kevin Warsh said summer inflation readings did not show that underlying trends had meaningfully improved. Axios reported the statement on September 16.

• Axios · Sep 16, 2026 · This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.

Editor's note: The Axios article, published September 16, 2026, reports that Kevin Warsh made the quoted statement to reporters on Wednesday afternoon. The page supports both the summary and the stated event date.

September projections put the funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of 2026, implying one more increase

In the projections issued with the decision, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, against 3.8 and 3.6 percent in the June round, and raised the median core PCE inflation projection for 2026 to 3.4 percent. With the target range just moved to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the 2026 median implies one further increase this year; Axios counted 12 of 18 officials projecting it.

• Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026 · In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2029 and over the longer run.
• Axios · Sep 16, 2026 · The announcement was accompanied by new projections that show a healthy majority of top Fed officials — 12 of 18 — anticipate one more rate hike this year.

Editor's note: Repaired 2026-09-18: the entry was rejected because the Federal Reserve's projections page does not itself characterise the dots as one more hike. The medians it publishes do, and the count is carried verbatim by the Axios source already on the entry, so the summary now states the published medians and attributes the count.

Markets price an 85 percent chance of a September rate increase

Investors priced an 85 percent probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting ending the following Wednesday. Axios reported that CME's FedWatch estimate was 72 percent before that day's inflation data.

• Axios · Sep 11, 2026 · Investors now see an 85% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's meeting that concludes next Wednesday — up from 72% before today's inflation data, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Editor's note: The Axios page states that investors saw an 85% chance of a rate increase at the meeting concluding the following Wednesday, up from 72% before that day's inflation data. It was published on 2026-09-11, matching the node date.

BLS reports consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in July, and 3.4 percent over the 12 months before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent, after increasing 0.2 percent in July.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
• Axios · Sep 11, 2026 · Core prices rose 0.3% in August, after increasing 0.2% the previous month.

Editor's note: Hand-checked against the BLS release USDL-26-1496: the headline, 12-month and core figures all appear in the August 2026 CPI release.

Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rate at 6.76 percent

Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.76 percent on September 10, 2026. The rate was 6.71 percent a week earlier.

• Freddie Mac · Sep 10, 2026 · The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% as of September 10, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.71%.

Editor's note: The page states that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% as of September 10, 2026, up from 6.71% the prior week. The quoted wording appears on the page.

Two-year Treasury yield rises to 4.56 percent

The two-year Treasury note yield rose 13.33 basis points to 4.56 percent. Reuters reported that this was its highest level since July 2024.

• Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights · Sep 10, 2026 · The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 13.33 basis points to 4.56%, touching its highest point since July 2024.
• U.S. Department of the Treasury · Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates: These rates are commonly referred to as "Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or CMTs.

Editor's note: The page states that the 2-year note yield rose 13.33 basis points to 4.56% and reached its highest point since July 2024. The Reuters article is dated September 11, 2026 and reports the market move occurred on September 10, 2026. Official source added: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

Markets price a roughly 70 percent chance of a September rate hike

Traders priced a roughly 70 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62 percent before the producer price data, according to LSEG interest rate probabilities.

• Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights · Sep 10, 2026 · After the data, traders were betting on a roughly 70% chance the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62% earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probabilities data.

Editor's note: The page states that after the PPI data, traders priced a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15–16 meeting, up from 62% earlier. The Reuters article is dated September 10, 2026, matching the node date.

BLS reports producer prices rose 0.4 percent in August

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Final demand prices rose 0.1 percent in July and fell 0.1 percent in June, and the index was up 5.4 percent over the 12 months ended in August.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 10, 2026 · The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Editor's note: Hand-checked against the BLS release: the quoted sentence and the July, June and 12-month figures all appear in USDL 26-1495.

August payrolls jump 162,000; traders put 60 percent odds on a hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting

Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the strongest month since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent; bars and restaurants led and information jobs fell, possibly on AI investment. Short-dated Treasury yields rose and CME FedWatch showed about 60 percent odds of a quarter-point increase at the first meeting with new projections under Warsh, pending the August CPI and PPI reports the following week.

• CNBC · Sep 4, 2026 · Traders were still pricing in about 60% odds of a quarter percentage point increase at the central bank's policy meeting Sept. 15-16, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Christopher Waller ties September vote to August inflation data

Governor Christopher J. Waller said his September vote would depend principally on the August inflation data. He said continued inflation progress would incline him to support holding rates, while a hot reading could lead him to consider a rate increase.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 3, 2026 · But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.
• Associated Press · Sep 3, 2026 · The government will release August inflation figures Sept. 11, and if that report shows inflation continues to cool, then Waller said he 'would be inclined' to keep the Fed's benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Editor's note: The page is a September 3, 2026 speech by Governor Waller. It says his policy decision would be heavily influenced by August inflation, that continued progress would support holding rates, and that a hot reading could prompt consideration of a rate hike.

Michael Barr says insufficient inflation progress could require a rate hike

Governor Michael S. Barr said he would favor raising interest rates if inflation did not appear to be moderating sufficiently. He said that progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective would support taking more time to assess the policy stance at the September meeting.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 1, 2026 · However, if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.
• Reuters · Sep 1, 2026 · Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that if inflation does not cool quickly, it will be time for the U.S. central bank to increase interest rates.

Editor's note: The page states that Governor Michael S. Barr would support raising rates if inflation did not appear to be moderating sufficiently, while sufficient progress toward 2 percent would warrant more time to assess policy. It is dated September 1, 2026.

Jackson Hole: Warsh says inflation is too high and the Fed may have work to do

In his first Jackson Hole keynote, on his hundredth day as chair, Warsh declined to offer forward guidance or a reaction function, said this summer's better inflation readings did not show underlying trends had meaningfully improved, and set his standard as confidence that inflation is moving to target clearly and at sufficient speed. He also argued AI investment could lift growth substantially. Two-year yields jumped and futures moved to better than even odds of a September hike.

• Federal Reserve Board · Aug 28, 2026 · Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.

led to Daily rates hit a 2026 high of 6.87% after Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech on Mortgage Rates: One Week Below 6 Percent, Then Back Above 7.

Trump restarts the Cook removal with a notice letter and a 21-day deadline

Following the Supreme Court's instruction that Cook was entitled to notice and a chance to respond, deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino wrote that the president was considering removing her and gave her until August 26 to answer the mortgage allegations. Her lawyers called the allegations as baseless as a year earlier and, in a five-page reply on August 26, noted that the Treasury secretary and the attorney general had faced similar accusations.

• SCOTUSblog · Aug 7, 2026 · In a letter dated Aug. 5, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino notified Cook that Trump was “considering” whether to remove her from the Board of Governors.

Federal Reserve announces five monetary-policy task forces

The Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of five task forces on monetary-policy practice. The task forces will examine communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, with findings intended for the Federal Open Market Committee.

• Federal Reserve Board · Jul 9, 2026 · The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy.

Editor's note: The page is readable and states that the Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of five task forces. It says the task forces will address communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, producing findings for the FOMC on July 9, 2026.

June FOMC minutes disclose Warsh task-force plans

The June FOMC minutes said Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces. The task forces were to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.

• Federal Reserve Board · Jul 8, 2026 · The Chairman described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.

Editor's note: The June 16–17, 2026 FOMC minutes state that Chairman Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy. The page’s last update is July 8, 2026, matching the node date.

Warsh's first meeting: a unanimous hold and a rewritten, shorter statement

The committee held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote, its first unanimous decision since June 2025, and issued a shorter statement in a new format that leads with the decision and reaffirms a policy of ample reserves. It described growth as solid despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, productivity and capital investment as strong, and inflation as elevated relative to target.

• Federal Reserve Board · Jun 17, 2026 · The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
• Federal Reserve Board · Jun 17, 2026 · Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting.

Federal Reserve names Powell chair pro tempore

The Federal Reserve Board named Jerome H. Powell chair pro tempore. Powell was to serve in that role until Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chair.

• Federal Reserve Board · May 15, 2026 · Powell will serve as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in as the new chair.

Editor's note: The page states that the Federal Reserve Board named Jerome H. Powell chair pro tempore and that he would serve until Kevin M. Warsh was sworn in as chair. It is dated May 15, 2026.

Senate confirms Warsh 54 to 45, the narrowest vote for a Fed chair in the modern era

Only Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman crossed party lines. The confirmation came as fresh data showed inflation well above 2 percent and producer-price pressures at a three-year high, and markets had stopped pricing cuts. Powell's chair term expired two days later; he said he would stay on the board at least until the investigation into the Fed's headquarters renovation was complete, the first former chair to remain as governor in nearly 80 years.

• CNBC · May 13, 2026 · The Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Warsh, ending a monthslong saga that began in the summer of 2025 and included an extensive search for Powell's successor. The vote was almost completely along party lines, with only Pennsylvania Democrat Sen. John Fetterman crossing over to vote for Warsh, who becomes the 11th Fed chair of the modern banking era.

Four dissents at Powell's last full meeting as chair: one for a cut, three against the easing bias

The FOMC held for a third meeting, describing inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices. Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported holding but objected to the statement's easing bias, the widest split under Powell. The Senate Banking Committee had advanced Warsh's nomination on a party-line vote the same day.

• Federal Reserve Board · Apr 29, 2026 · Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias

result of Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.

BLS reports CPI rose 0.9 percent in March

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report on April 10.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Apr 10, 2026 · The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March.

Editor's note: The page states that CPI-U increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. Its release header is dated Friday, April 10, 2026.

Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as Middle East developments cloud the outlook; Miran the lone dissent

With oil prices rising on the conflict in the Middle East, the committee held for a second meeting and added that the implications for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Miran dissented alone for a quarter-point cut. Trump had formally sent Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4.

• Federal Reserve Board · Mar 18, 2026 · The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.

result of War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil. result of Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.

Judge Boasberg grants the Fed Board's motion to quash subpoenas

Chief Judge James E. Boasberg granted the Federal Reserve Board's motion to quash Justice Department subpoenas. The ruling concerned the Powell investigation.

• U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia · Mar 11, 2026 · It will therefore grant the Board's Motion to Quash.

Editor's note: The memorandum opinion signed by Chief Judge James E. Boasberg on March 11, 2026 grants the Federal Reserve Board's Motion to Quash subpoenas concerning the investigation of Chair Jerome Powell. The quoted sentence appears in the opinion.

BLS reports February payrolls fell 92,000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Mar 6, 2026 · Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Editor's note: The page is readable and identifies the release as Friday, March 6, 2026. It states that total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February and that the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent, using the quoted wording.

First hold of 2026 at 3.5 to 3.75 percent; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut

The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.

• Federal Reserve Board · Jan 28, 2026 · Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Powell calls Justice Department subpoenas pretexts

Jerome H. Powell said the Justice Department subpoenas were pretexts. The statement concerned subpoenas served on the Federal Reserve Board.

• Federal Reserve Board · Jan 11, 2026 · Those are pretexts.

Editor's note: The statement is dated January 11, 2026, and says the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas. Powell states that the stated reasons for the action were pretexts, using the quoted words.

Stephen Miran sworn in as governor the day before the meeting, on leave from the White House

The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers took the oath as a Fed governor one day after a party-line Senate confirmation and two weeks after his nomination, filling Adriana Kugler's seat with a term ending January 31, 2026. He took unpaid leave from the White House rather than resigning, which drew criticism about the Fed's independence, and voted at the next day's meeting.

• Federal Reserve Board · Sep 16, 2025 · President Trump nominated Dr. Miran on September 2, 2025, and he was confirmed by the United States Senate on September 15, 2025. His term as a member of the Board ends on January 31, 2026.

FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on May 7, 2025.

• Federal Reserve · May 7, 2025 · In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

Editor's note: The page is readable and is dated May 07, 2025. It states that the Committee decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

FOMC reduces the monthly Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion

Beginning in April, the FOMC reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Federal Reserve published the statement on March 19, 2025.

• Federal Reserve · Mar 19, 2025 · Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion.

Editor's note: The page is readable and states that, beginning in April, the Committee would reduce the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25 billion to $5 billion. It is dated March 19, 2025.

FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on January 29, 2025.

• Federal Reserve · Jan 29, 2025 · In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

Editor's note: The page is a Federal Reserve FOMC statement dated January 29, 2025, and states that the Committee maintained the target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

Third cut of 2024 takes the range to 4.25 to 4.5 percent; projections pencil in only two cuts for 2025

The FOMC cut by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting, but the new projections showed just two cuts in 2025 instead of four and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented for no change. Markets fell sharply and the ten-year yield rose; the range would then stay unchanged for nine months as tariffs clouded the inflation outlook.

• Federal Reserve Board · Dec 18, 2024 · In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

FOMC lowers the federal-funds target range to 4.5 to 4.75 percent

The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on November 7, 2024.

• Federal Reserve · Nov 7, 2024 · In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.

Editor's note: The page is readable and dated November 07, 2024. It states that the Committee lowered the target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent, matching the summary and quote.