Social Security's Next Raise: From the 2.5% COLA to the 2027 Announcement

Two data points to go: August CPI-W due September 11, the official 2027 COLA on October 14

With July's 3.4 percent CPI-W the only third-quarter reading in hand, forecasts ranged from 3.4 to 3.6 percent. The August index was scheduled for September 11 and the September index, which completes the average, for October 14, the day the agency planned to announce the 2027 adjustment, a return to the normal mid-October timing after the 2025 shutdown delay. The new COLA takes effect with January 2027 payments.

• The Motley Fool · Sep 2, 2026 · Since August and September CPI-W readings are needed to calculate next year's COLA, most of the puzzle is still missing. Even though the month of August is now behind us, it takes time for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile inflation data. August's CPI-W is expected to come out on Sept. 11.

CBO and CRFB: repealing the tax on benefits would bring the retirement fund's insolvency forward to 2031

As candidates revived calls to end income tax on Social Security benefits, CRFB pointed to a new Congressional Budget Office report finding that repeal would move the retirement fund's insolvency from 2032 to 2031 and Medicare's hospital fund from 2040 to 2031, and offered 18 scored alternatives, from taxing 85 or 93 percent of benefits to treating them like a private pension or Roth IRA.

• Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget · Sep 1, 2026 · CBO finds that repealing benefit taxation – as some politicians have called for or proposed – would advance the insolvency of Social Security’s retirement fund from 2032 to 2031 and Medicare’s hospital fund from 2040 to 2031.
• Congressional Budget Office · Aug 26, 2026 · In 2026, income taxes on Social Security benefits will total $120 billion, an amount equal to 7.1 percent of total Social Security benefits received in that year, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.

July CPI-W at 3.4%: the Senior Citizens League trims its 2027 COLA forecast to 3.6%

With the first of the three months that set the COLA in hand, the Senior Citizens League lowered its projection from 3.8 to 3.6 percent, still the largest raise since 2023, worth about $70 a month on the average benefit; independent analyst Mary Johnson cut hers to 3.4 percent from 4.7 percent in June and AARP said 3.5 percent. Inflation had swung from 2.2 percent in January to 4.4 percent in May before easing, with oil prices about 24 percent above a year earlier.

• The Senior Citizens League · Aug 12, 2026 · TSCL predicts that Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 3.6 percent, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than this year’s COLA of 2.8%.

CRFB: six years to insolvency, a 22% automatic cut, and the tax law caused a quarter of the deterioration

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's same-day analysis put Social Security's cash deficits at $3.8 trillion over ten years, the actuarial shortfall at $31 trillion in present value, and the automatic cut at 22 percent when the retirement fund runs out in 2032, rising to 38 percent by 2100. It attributed over half of the year's worsening to lower fertility, a third to lower immigration and a quarter to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's cut in benefit-tax revenue.

• Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget · Jun 9, 2026 · A quarter of the increase was due to the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced revenue from the income taxation of Social Security benefits.

result of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act creates Trump Accounts: $1,000 for babies born 2025 through 2028 on Trump Accounts: From the 2025 Tax Law to the July 2026 Launch and the Employer Matches.

2026 trustees report: retirement fund depleted in late 2032, combined funds still 2034; 75-year gap widens 16%

The trustees moved the retirement fund's depletion to the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier, with 78 percent of benefits payable, and held the combined funds at 2034 with 83 percent payable. Reserves dropped $160 billion in 2025 to $2.56 trillion and the 75-year actuarial deficit grew from 3.82 to 4.42 percent of payroll, driven by lower fertility and immigration assumptions and the 2025 tax law. Bisignano called on lawmakers and the agency to work together. The Medicare trustees' report released the same day projected the 2027 Part B premium at $209.50.

• Social Security Administration · Jun 9, 2026 · The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time.

Medicare Part B premium for 2026 jumps almost 10% to $202.90, eating into the COLA

CMS set the standard Part B premium at $202.90 a month for 2026, up $17.90 from $185, with the deductible rising to $283, citing projected price changes and higher use of services. For a retiree on the average benefit the premium increase took roughly a third of the $56 COLA, because Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security checks.

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · Nov 14, 2025 · On November 14, 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the 2026 premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance amounts for the Medicare Part A and Part B programs, and the 2026 Medicare Part D income-related monthly adjustment amounts.

2026 COLA is 2.8%, about $56 a month; taxable maximum rises to $184,500

Benefits for 75 million people rose 2.8 percent from January 2026, the first COLA of the Bisignano era, with SSI increases from December 31. The agency noted the decade's average COLA had been about 3.1 percent, and asked people who wanted their COLA notice online only to opt out of paper by November 19. Much of the raise for Medicare enrollees would be absorbed by the Part B premium increase announced three weeks later.

• Social Security Administration · Oct 24, 2025 · The Social Security Administration (SSA) announced today that Social Security benefits, including Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for 75 million Americans will increase 2.8 percent in 2026.

SSA hails the One Big Beautiful Bill as ending taxes on benefits for nearly 90% of recipients, then corrects itself

Hours after Congress passed the tax and spending law, the agency issued a press release and a mass email saying nearly 90 percent of beneficiaries would no longer pay federal income tax on their benefits. The law in fact adds a temporary $6,000 deduction for taxpayers 65 and over for 2025 through 2028 and leaves benefit taxation in place; the agency posted a correction on July 7 after tax experts objected. The lost benefit-tax revenue would later show up as a quarter of the deterioration in the 2026 trustees report.

• Social Security Administration · Jul 3, 2025 · The bill ensures that nearly 90% of Social Security beneficiaries will no longer pay federal income taxes on their benefits, providing meaningful and immediate relief to seniors who have spent a lifetime contributing to our nation's economy.

2025 trustees report: combined trust funds now run dry in 2034, a year earlier; retirement fund in 2033

The trustees moved the depletion date of the combined retirement and disability funds to 2034, when 81 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable, and kept the retirement fund alone at 2033 with 77 percent payable. Reserves fell $67 billion in 2024 to $2.72 trillion and the program's costs have exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. Bisignano called the trust funds' financial status a top priority for the administration.

• Social Security Administration · Jun 18, 2025 · The combined reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to have enough dedicated revenue to pay all scheduled benefits and associated administrative costs until 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 81 percent of benefits payable at that time.

Frank Bisignano sworn in as the 18th Commissioner of Social Security

Former Fiserv chairman and CEO Frank Bisignano took over an agency that had spent early 2025 under an acting commissioner, DOGE-driven staff cuts and a plan to trim its workforce to about 50,000, promising that the administration would protect Social Security and make the agency a premier organization. Every COLA, trustees report and service change on this timeline after May 2025 is his.

• Social Security Administration · May 7, 2025 · Financial Services Industry Leader Frank Bisignano was sworn in today as the 18th Commissioner of Social Security.

Social Security Fairness Act payments begin: WEP and GPO repeal brings retroactive checks to millions

Seven weeks after President Biden signed the Social Security Fairness Act on January 5, 2025, repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset, the agency said it was immediately starting retroactive payments back to January 2024, most to arrive by the end of March, and would raise monthly benefits from April for more than 3 million public-sector retirees, teachers, firefighters and their spouses. The law added an estimated $196 billion to Social Security's costs over ten years.

• Social Security Administration · Feb 25, 2025 · Today, the Social Security Administration announced it is immediately beginning to pay retroactive benefits and will increase monthly benefit payments to people whose benefits have been affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO).

2025 COLA set at 2.5%, about $50 a month for the average retiree

The Social Security Administration announced a 2.5 percent cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 for more than 72.5 million beneficiaries, the smallest since 2021 after 3.2 percent in 2024 and 8.7 percent in 2023, and raised the taxable maximum to $176,100. Commissioner Martin O'Malley said the increase would help people keep up even as inflation cooled. It was the last COLA announced by the Biden administration.

• Social Security Administration · Oct 10, 2024 · Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than 72.5 million Americans will increase 2.5 percent in 2025, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month starting in January.