Bureau of Labor Statistics

In the September producer price report the index for crude petroleum jumped 28.3 percent, leading the rise in unprocessed goods for intermediate demand. Further down the chain diesel fuel rose 21.0 percent and gasoline 20.3 percent. The IEA had flows through the strait recovering to 10.9 million barrels a day the day before; this is what the months of disruption behind that recovery cost at the first stage of US production, before any of it reaches a pump.

Stripping out foods, energy and trade services, producer prices still rose 0.5 percent in September after 0.3 percent in August, and 5.0 percent over twelve months. Headline final demand rose 1.3 percent on the month and 6.3 percent on the year. The core reading is the one that matters for mortgages: it is the part of the rise that cannot be blamed on the Gulf, and the thirty-year rate sits on a long yield that prices persistent inflation rather than a single oil shock.

Final demand producer prices rose 1.3 percent in September against 0.5 percent in August, the largest monthly advance since March 2022, and 6.3 percent over twelve months, the largest since December 2022. Goods rose 2.6 percent, the largest increase since the series began in December 2009, with final demand energy up 10.8 percent accounting for over 80 percent of it and gasoline alone, up 20.3 percent, for half. Core final demand — less foods, energy and trade services — rose 0.5 percent on the month and 5.0 percent on the year. Set against the CPI released the day before, where consumer gasoline rose 9.1 percent, the gap has a name in this release: margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3 percent, so the forecourt took a large part of the wholesale rise rather than passing it on.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the beef index fell 1.0 percent in September. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5 percent over the month.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-W rose 3.9 percent over the preceding 12 months. The September CPI-W index was 330.654 on a 1982–84=100 basis.

In the September CPI the food index was unchanged on the month, with food away from home up 0.2 percent and food at home down 0.1 percent; food rose 2.5 percent over the year. Against headline inflation at 3.7 percent and energy at 20.4 percent, groceries were the quiet part of this print — which is not what the record cattle prices on this page would lead you to expect.

September CPI came in at 0.6 percent on the month and 3.7 percent on the year, up from 3.4 percent through August, with core at 2.6 percent. A twelve-month rate moving away from target rather than toward it is the condition under which the long end stops pricing cuts, and mortgage rates sit on the long end.

The CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in September against 0.4 percent in August, and 3.7 percent over twelve months against 3.4 percent through August. Core inflation, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent on the year. The gasoline index rose 9.1 percent in September and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase, with energy up 20.4 percent over the year — the Gulf disruption arriving in the headline number the Fed has to answer for.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.079 million job openings in August, down 256,000 from July. Hires and total separations changed little during the month.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers increased 3.5 percent over the 12 months to August, to an index level of 328.481 (1982-84=100). The Military Officers Association of America put the August reading 3.5 percent above the 317.265 COLA baseline.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in July, and 3.4 percent over the 12 months before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent, after increasing 0.2 percent in July.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Final demand prices rose 0.1 percent in July and fell 0.1 percent in June, and the index was up 5.4 percent over the 12 months ended in August.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the strongest month since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent; bars and restaurants led and information jobs fell, possibly on AI investment. Short-dated Treasury yields rose and CME FedWatch showed about 60 percent odds of a quarter-point increase at the first meeting with new projections under Warsh, pending the August CPI and PPI reports the following week.

With July's 3.4 percent CPI-W the only third-quarter reading in hand, forecasts ranged from 3.4 to 3.6 percent. The August index was scheduled for September 11 and the September index, which completes the average, for October 14, the day the agency planned to announce the 2027 adjustment, a return to the normal mid-October timing after the 2025 shutdown delay. The new COLA takes effect with January 2027 payments.

With the first of the three months that set the COLA in hand, the Senior Citizens League lowered its projection from 3.8 to 3.6 percent, still the largest raise since 2023, worth about $70 a month on the average benefit; independent analyst Mary Johnson cut hers to 3.4 percent from 4.7 percent in June and AARP said 3.5 percent. Inflation had swung from 2.2 percent in January to 4.4 percent in May before easing, with oil prices about 24 percent above a year earlier.

The U.S. city-average price for all uncooked ground beef was $7.158 per pound in August 2026. The reported price was 0.6 percent higher than in July and 7.9 percent higher than in August 2025.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report on April 10.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent.

Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not publish the September consumer price index during the shutdown, the agency confirmed that the COLA, which averages third-quarter CPI-W, would be announced on October 24 instead of October 15, and said January payments would not be delayed. Forecasters expected 2.7 to 2.8 percent.

From 1983 the adjustment has applied to benefits payable for December, paid in January. Under the formula a COLA equals the percentage increase in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA took effect, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, with no COLA if the index did not rise. That is why the September CPI-W release each October settles the number.