Record Beef Prices: The Smallest Herd Since 1951, the Packer Probe and the Import Fix

Food is flat on the month and groceries fall slightly, while everything around them rises

In the September CPI the food index was unchanged on the month, with food away from home up 0.2 percent and food at home down 0.1 percent; food rose 2.5 percent over the year. Against headline inflation at 3.7 percent and energy at 20.4 percent, groceries were the quiet part of this print — which is not what the record cattle prices on this page would lead you to expect.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 14, 2026 · The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent and the index for food at home fell 0.1 percent.

USDA cuts its beef production forecast again and leaves the cattle price forecast exactly where it was

The October WASDE lowered 2026 red meat and poultry production, with beef cut for the second half as lighter carcass weights and lower steer and heifer slaughter outweighed heavier cow slaughter. The 2027 forecast came down too, on lighter dressed weights and feedlot placements in the second half of 2026 running below expectation, which is expected to slow marketings into the first quarter of 2027. Against all of that, the board left its cattle price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged — the herd keeps shrinking on paper without USDA moving the number that reaches a shopper.

• U.S. Department of Agriculture · Oct 9, 2026 · The forecast for 2026 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef and pork production is partly offset by increased broiler and turkey production.
• U.S. Department of Agriculture · Oct 9, 2026 · Cattle price forecasts were unchanged for 2026 and 2027.

Editor's note: Added by hand in review. The October WASDE fired as a watch date on 9 October and the research pass did not pick it up, though the report is public and the fetcher reads all 56,000 characters of it. Both quotes are from that PDF.

Farm Bureau urges USDA to retain meatpacking rules

The American Farm Bureau Federation said it wanted the rules to remain in place. It also asked that the rules be highlighted in the report sent to the president.

• RFD-TV · Oct 9, 2026 · “We want to make sure that those rules stay in place and are highlighted in the report that is sent to the president

responded to Executive Order 14424 tells USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations.

Editor's note: The cited RFD-TV article says American Farm Bureau Federation official R.J. Layher wanted the rules to stay in place and highlighted in the report sent to the president. It was published on 2026-10-09. Quote trimmed in review: the stored version closed with a full stop the page does not have — the sentence runs on into “,” he said.”

Texas modifies New World screwworm Infested Zone 06

Texas modified New World screwworm Infested Zone 06 with USDA APHIS concurrence. The modification removed screwworm-related livestock and pet movement requirements within certain released areas, while interstate and international export requirements remained in effect.

• USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Oct 6, 2026 · Modifying infested zones removes NWS‑related movement requirements for livestock and pets within certain areas.

Editor's note: The cited APHIS page supports all summary claims, including TAHC's action with APHIS concurrence, release of Infested Zone 06, removal of certain in-area movement requirements, and continued interstate and international export requirements. The readable page text does not state an event date.

Second other-countries lean-beef quota tranche opens

The second 100,000-metric-ton tranche for other countries or areas opened on October 1, 2026. The tranche was scheduled to close on October 30, 2026.

• Federal Register · Aug 31, 2026 · “The second tranche of 100,000 mt will open on October 1, 2026, and close on October 30, 2026.”

Editor's note: The page states that the additional quantity is allocated entirely to “other countries or areas” and that the second 100,000-metric-ton tranche opens October 1, 2026 and closes October 30, 2026.

Final Argentine lean-beef quota tranche opens

The fourth 20,000-metric-ton tranche of the Argentine lean-beef-trimmings quota opened on October 1, 2026. The tranche was scheduled to close on December 31, 2026.

• Federal Register · Feb 13, 2026 · “The fourth tranche of 20,000 mt will open on October 1, 2026, and close on December 31, 2026.”

Editor's note: The page states that the additional quota is allocated entirely to Argentina and that the fourth 20,000-metric-ton tranche opens on October 1, 2026, closing on December 31, 2026.

Sterile fly dispersal facility opens in Hermosillo

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said a sterile fly dispersal facility in Hermosillo, Mexico, opened in October 2026. RFD-TV reported that aircraft were departing Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico.

• USDA APHIS · Oct 6, 2026 · The newest sterile fly dispersal facility—in Hermosillo, Mexico—opened in October 2026.
• RFD-TV · Oct 7, 2026 · Video posted by the Screwworm Rapid Response Team shows planes taking off in Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico.

Editor's note: APHIS states that the Hermosillo sterile fly dispersal facility opened in October 2026. RFD-TV reports planes departing Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico.

KLA reports delayed cattle shipments amid ICE workforce disruption

Kansas Livestock Association said reports included thousands of fed cattle whose shipment to processors was delayed, with lost revenue and additional costs. The Department of Homeland Security confirmed officers were present in Kansas and said they were not conducting worksite raids.

• Kansas Livestock Association · Sep 25, 2026 · Reports have included thousands of fed cattle delayed in shipping to processors, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs.
• Associated Press · Sep 25, 2026 · The Department of Homeland Security confirmed their presence in Kansas but said they are not conducting worksite raids.

Editor's note: The page is readable and dated September 25, 2026. It states that reports included thousands of fed cattle delayed in shipping to processors, causing millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs; it does not address the DHS statement in the summary.

ERS forecasts 9.4 percent rise in 2026 beef and veal prices

USDA Economic Research Service forecast that beef and veal prices would increase 9.4 percent in 2026. The forecast interval was 7.4 percent to 11.6 percent.

• USDA Economic Research Service · Sep 25, 2026 · Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 11.6 percent.

Editor's note: The page is readable and was updated 2026-09-25. It explicitly states that beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 11.6 percent.

Live-cattle imports resume through Santa Teresa

Cattle imports resumed through the Santa Teresa crossing in New Mexico at 10:50 a.m. Mountain Time, after more than sixteen months halted.

• El Paso Times, republished by AOL · Sep 24, 2026 · Cattle imports resumed after 10:50 a.m. MT, Thursday, Sept. 24, after being halted for more than 16 months.
• USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 24, 2026 · After evaluating the success of the initial reopening and potential impacts or risk assessment changes, APHIS will then consider reopening the Santa Teresa, NM and Columbus, NM ports to live cattle, bison, and horses.

Editor's note: Editor: dropped a sentence about an APHIS status page and a further reopening the cited report does not mention. The resumption, its time and the length of the halt are quoted from it.

Farm Bureau says its ground-beef sample showed a 16-cent price decline

The American Farm Bureau Federation said its economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day. It reported that average prices had fallen 16 cents per pound.

• American Farm Bureau Federation · Sep 23, 2026 · “Farm Bureau economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day and found that, on average, prices have fallen only 16 cents per pound.”
• Livestock Marketing Information Center / American Farm Bureau Federation · Oct 5, 2026 · Across our sample, the average price of ground beef barely moved, going from $7.29 a pound on Sept. 2 to $7.16 a pound on Oct. 5 – a reduction of 13 cents or 1.8%.

responded to A second proclamation adds 300,000 tonnes, allocated to countries other than Argentina.

Editor's note: The page states that Farm Bureau economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day and found average prices had fallen only 16 cents per pound. It is dated September 23, 2026.

Texas releases one screwworm infested zone and modifies another

The Texas Animal Health Commission released Infested Zone 11 and modified Infested Zone 04 with concurrence from USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. The action removed New World screwworm-specific movement requirements for livestock and pets in the affected areas, while interstate and international-export requirements remained in force.

• USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 21, 2026 · The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) has released one New World screwworm (NWS) infested zone in Texas and modified another, with concurrence from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).

Editor's note: The page states that TAHC released one New World screwworm infested zone and modified another with APHIS concurrence, removing NWS-related local movement requirements while interstate and export requirements remain. The readable page text does not provide an event date.

USDA schedules Santa Teresa cattle-port reopening for September 24

USDA scheduled the Santa Teresa livestock crossing to reopen on September 24. Bloomberg reported that agency staff were preparing at the site, while an APHIS importer page last modified August 25 listed the reopening date as to be determined.

• Bloomberg News via Transport Topics · Sep 17, 2026 · The port is scheduled to reopen Sept. 24, and agency staff are already preparing on site, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a Sept. 17 press conference.
• KVIA ABC-7 · Sep 17, 2026 · The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Thursday the livestock crossing in Santa Teresa will reopen next week after more than two years.
• USDA APHIS · Aug 25, 2026 · Santa Teresa, NM—To be determined

Editor's note: The article states that the Santa Teresa port is scheduled to reopen Sept. 24 and that agency staff are already preparing on site, attributing this to Secretary Brooke Rollins at a Sept. 17 press conference. The page is dated September 17, 2026.

Texas releases Infested Zone 09 from screwworm restrictions

The Texas Animal Health Commission released specified areas of Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties from the June 24 quarantine and movement restrictions for Infested Zone 09. USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service concurred with the zone release.

• Texas Animal Health Commission · Sep 16, 2026 · Therefore, the following areas of Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties are hereby released from the quarantine and movement restrictions imposed by the June 24, 2026 order establishing Infested Zone 09:
• USDA APHIS · Sep 16, 2026 · The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) has released a New World screwworm (NWS) infested zone in Texas, with concurrence from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).

Editor's note: The TAHC order, signed September 16, 2026, releases specified areas in Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties from the June 24, 2026 Infested Zone 09 restrictions. APHIS states that it concurred with TAHC’s release of the zone.

Douglas reopens again after a weeklong pause over inoperable cattle chutes

The only cattle crossing on the US-Mexico border went back into service on Tuesday after USDA paused it in late August, having been told that the chutes on the Mexican side had become inoperable following welding modifications. The stoppage showed how thin the reopened channel still was.

• KJZZ · Sep 9, 2026 · The Douglas border crossing reopened to cattle Tuesday after a more than weeklong pause - making it the only point on the U.S.-Mexico border where live cattle imports can cross.
• USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 11, 2026 · On August 24, 2026, USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port to cattle imports from Mexico, guided by overlapping safeguards and a science-based import protocol jointly agreed upon between the United States and Mexico.

Executive Order 14425 orders a review of mandatory beef country-of-origin labeling

Executive Order 14425 directed the Secretary of Agriculture to review authorities that may allow mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef products. The Secretary was directed to consult the United States Trade Representative within 90 days.

• White House · Sep 4, 2026 · Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the United States Trade Representative, shall review all statutory and regulatory authorities that may permit the establishment of mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef products.

Editor's note: The page identifies the action as Executive Order 14425, dated September 4, 2026. Section 4 contains the quoted language directing the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the U.S. Trade Representative, to review authorities for mandatory beef country-of-origin labeling within 90 days.

Beef-cow slaughter is 13.7 percent below year-earlier level

Beef-cow slaughter was down 13.7 percent year over year in 2026 to date. The report said beef-cow slaughter had declined 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025.

• BEEF Magazine / Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension · Sep 29, 2026 · Beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025 and is down another 13.7 percent year over year thus far in 2026.

Editor's note: The page states that beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025 and was down another 13.7 percent year over year in 2026. It was published on 2026-09-29, which supports the node's September 2026 date.

ERS forecasts a 9.8 percent rise in 2026 beef and veal prices

The Economic Research Service forecast that beef and veal prices would increase 9.8 percent in 2026. Its forecast interval ranged from 7.0 percent to 12.6 percent.

• USDA Economic Research Service · Aug 25, 2026 · Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.0 to 12.6 percent.

Editor's note: The page is updated 2026-08-25 and explicitly states that beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.0 to 12.6 percent.

The first cattle in more than a year cross at Douglas, Arizona

Nearly 700 animals came through the border wall at Douglas on the Monday the port reopened, the first cattle to cross in more than a year. APHIS chief veterinary officer Alan Huddleston said the inspection included screwworm-sniffing dogs and called the reopening a proof of concept that, if it holds, would lead to more ports opening along the border.

• KJZZ · Aug 25, 2026 · The cattle that came through the border wall Monday went through a rigorous inspection procedure, said Alan Huddleston, the chief veterinary officer at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS. The added layers of protection included inspections by specially trained screwworm-sniffing dogs, Huddleston said.
• KCBD · Aug 25, 2026 · LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - The U.S. reopened the border crossing in Arizona to cattle imports from Mexico on Monday, as part of a phased plan to control the spread of the New World screwworm.

Trump announces 300,000 tonnes of tariff-free ground beef imports; NCBA calls it a mistake

In a Truth Social post Trump said he had concluded a deal under which the United States would let up to 300,000 metric tons of ground-beef product in with no out-of-quota tariff for 90 days, with a commitment that it be sold 25 percent below market prices. Cattle markets fell that morning, and NCBA chief executive Colin Woodall said flooding the market with government-subsidised below-market beef was not the way to rebuild the American herd.

• BEEF Magazine · Aug 21, 2026 · "Today, I concluded a deal to substantially lower the price of ground beef for working American families," Trump posted.

U.S. commercial beef output and cattle slaughter decline

U.S. commercial beef production totaled 1.98 billion pounds, 2 percent below August 2025. Commercial cattle slaughter totaled 2.24 million head, down 4 percent from a year earlier.

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Sep 24, 2026 · Beef production, at 1.98 billion pounds, was 2 percent below the previous year.

Editor's note: The page reports August 2026 commercial beef production of 1.98 billion pounds, down 2 percent from August 2025, and commercial cattle slaughter of 2.24 million head, down 4 percent. The quoted sentence appears on the page.

U.S. average ground-beef price rises in August

The U.S. city-average price for all uncooked ground beef was $7.158 per pound in August 2026. The reported price was 0.6 percent higher than in July and 7.9 percent higher than in August 2025.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · All uncooked ground beef, per lb. (453.6 gm) 6.631 7.116 7.158 7.9 0.6.

Editor's note: The table’s U.S. city-average row for all uncooked ground beef lists August 2026 at $7.158 per pound, up 7.9 percent from August 2025 and 0.6 percent from July 2026. The quoted row appears on the page.

Associate Attorney General Woodward writes to eight grocery chains about beef prices

Identical letters dated July 14 went to Kroger, Walmart, Publix, Albertsons, Aldi, Ahold Delhaize USA, Costco and Amazon, telling each that the Antitrust Division was assessing trends in beef prices. Investigators asked for retail and wholesale prices, costs and margins, pricing strategy and market analyses going back to 2020.

• Fox Business · Sep 2, 2026 · "The Antitrust Division is assessing trends in beef prices - a matter of critical concern to the American public, and a priority for the United States Department of Justice," Woodward wrote in identical letters dated July 14 and addressed separately to each company.
• Newsweek · Sep 2, 2026 · We will be seeking data and information that we anticipate to be in your company's records relating to your company's retail sales and prices, wholesale purchases and prices, costs and margins for beef products, pricing and purchasing strategy, your company's analyses of market trends in the wholesale or retail price of beef, and information about factors influencing beef prices."

U.S. beef-cow inventory is 28.5 million head

The United States had 28.5 million beef cows as of July 1, 2026. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that the figure was 1 percent below the prior year.

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jul 24, 2026 · There are 28.5 million beef cows in the United States as of July 1, 2026, down 1% from last year.

Editor's note: The page states that there were 28.5 million U.S. beef cows as of July 1, 2026, down 1% from the prior year. The quoted sentence appears verbatim aside from standard punctuation formatting.

USDA puts $500 million into small and regional beef processors

The Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers programme offered up to $500 million to independent and regional beef slaughter facilities, alongside a Small Processors Action Plan and a fourth $60 million round of the Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program. The theory was that more places to sell cattle would weaken the Big Four's hold on the market.

• RFD-TV (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · June 2026: Secretary Rollins announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) Program, providing up to $500 million to independent and regional beef slaughter facilities.

USDA and Interior sign a grazing memorandum to open public rangeland

The two departments agreed to expand grazing access and cut permitting delays on federal land, one of the supply-side answers to a herd that cannot grow without feed and forage. USDA later listed the memorandum among the actions it counted as its record for ranchers.

• WBIW (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · March 2026: USDA and the Department of the Interior signed a Memorandum of Understanding to expand grazing access and cut permitting delays on public lands.

FSIS begins enforcing voluntary U.S.-origin meat-label claims

Food Safety and Inspection Service personnel began enforcement of voluntary U.S.-origin claims on regulated products before the products could enter commerce. The enforcement applied to claims including “Product of USA” and “Made in the USA.”

• USDA · Oct 22, 2025 · Effective January 1, 2026, FSIS inspection personnel will begin enforcing compliance on FSIS-regulated products that bear voluntary “Product of USA,” “Made in the USA,” and other U.S.-origin claims before they may enter commerce.

Editor's note: The page states that effective January 1, 2026, FSIS inspection personnel will enforce compliance for FSIS-regulated products bearing voluntary “Product of USA,” “Made in the USA,” and other U.S.-origin claims before they enter commerce. The summary accurately reflects this.

Executive Order 14364 sets up food supply chain task forces at DOJ and the FTC

The order told the Attorney General and the FTC chairman each to stand up a Food Supply Chain Security Task Force to investigate whether anti-competitive behaviour exists in US food supply chains, and whether foreign control of food industries raises prices or creates a national security risk. It named meat processing alongside seed, fertiliser and equipment, and directed the Attorney General to open criminal proceedings if the task force found collusion.

• Federal Register (Presidential Documents) · Dec 10, 2025 · Should the Department of Justice Food Supply Chain Security Task Force uncover any evidence of criminal collusion, the Attorney General shall commence criminal proceedings as appropriate, including grand jury investigations.

Trump orders a Justice Department investigation of the meatpackers

In a Truth Social post, Trump said he had asked the Justice Department to investigate the meatpacking industry for collusion and price fixing, arguing that ranchers were being blamed for prices set by what he called majority foreign-owned packers. Ground beef was up about 13 percent year over year at the time, rising faster than almost anything else in the Consumer Price Index.

• Axios · Nov 7, 2025 · "Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People," Trump wrote.
• Fox Business · Nov 7, 2025 · "I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation," Trump wrote.

Federal departments announce Plan to Fortify the American Beef Industry

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Department of the Interior, Department of Health and Human Services, and Small Business Administration announced actions for the American beef industry. The announcement identified the role of American ranchers in national security.

• USDA · Oct 22, 2025 · Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler announced a suite of actions to strengthen the American beef industry, reinforcing and prioritizing the American rancher’s critical role in the national security of the United States.

Editor's note: The USDA press release is readable and is titled "Secretary Rollins Announces Plan for American Ranchers and Consumers." It states that the four officials announced actions to strengthen the American beef industry and uses the quoted language about ranchers' critical role in U.S. national security; it is published October 22, 2025.

Trump floats buying Argentine beef, and cattle groups object

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said the United States would buy beef from Argentina to bring prices down and to help Buenos Aires. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association objected that the move rewarded a country that sells far more beef to the US than it buys, and Senator Chuck Grassley told AgriTalk the president ought to stop talking about beef prices.

• Drovers · Oct 20, 2025 · "We would buy some beef from Argentina," he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington.

Beef prices hit record highs with no end in sight

Retail beef was already at an all-time high in the summer of 2025, and analysts told Axios the cause was a supply problem years in the making: the 2021-2022 drought had forced ranchers to sell breeding stock, and rebuilding a herd takes years because a heifer held back is a calf not sold.

• Axios · Jul 19, 2025 · A multi-year drought shrunk cattle herds, and global imports are under threat - but consumer demand remains strong.

U.S. cattle inventory reaches 86.7 million head

U.S. farms had 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 1, 2025. The National Agricultural Statistics Service published the Cattle report containing the figure.

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 31, 2025 · There were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Cattle report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Editor's note: The page states that U.S. farms had 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 1, 2025, and attributes the figure to NASS's Cattle report. The page reproduces the quoted text; its release dateline says January 31, 2024, but the stated inventory event date is January 1, 2025.

U.S. cattle inventory declines to 87.2 million head

U.S. cattle and calf inventory totaled 87.2 million head on January 1, 2024. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that the total was 2 percent below its stated January 1, 2023 comparison level.

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 31, 2024 · Inventory of all cattle and calves in the United States, as of January 1, 2024, totaled 87.2 million head, down 2 percent from the 88.8 million head on January 1, 2023.

Editor's note: The page states that U.S. cattle and calves inventory as of January 1, 2024 totaled 87.2 million head, down 2 percent from 88.8 million on January 1, 2023. The stated event date matches the report.