Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut
Most Gulf oil normally crosses the Strait of Hormuz, while the IEA estimated in February that only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day could initially bypass it, chiefly through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. The usable capacity is uncertain because design ratings, operator claims and reported flows differ: Aramco says Petroline reached 7.0 million b/d, while Saudi Arabia later said flows had recovered to 5.8 million b/d after a September attack, and the IEA estimated total bypass exports at 5.6 million b/d in October. Those routes remain vulnerable: attacks cut or temporarily shut the East-West Pipeline, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have become both a supplementary outlet and a reported target. ADNOC is building a second Fujairah line due in 2027, but Iran’s Jask route remains unproven beyond a reported first test cargo, and Iraq’s Ceyhan route has only a stated allocation rather than demonstrated large-scale bypass flows.
Key moments
- Sep 30, 2024Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal
- Feb 2026Twenty million barrels a day go through the strait, and at most five and a half can go around it
- Feb 2026Two pipelines, three different numbers each: design capacity, operator claim, and what is actually flowing
- Apr 9, 2026Attack cut East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 b/d
- May 15, 2026Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids Hormuz
- Jun 2026Kpler said most Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes were likely UAE-origin
- Sep 2026Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the strait
- Oct 6, 2026Saudi Arabia says Petroline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, five or six days after the strike on it
- Oct 14, 2026Bypass exports reach 5.6 million barrels a day, past the top of the capacity the IEA estimated
In numbers
Data and sources (2 points)
| Date | Crude moving through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline | Entry |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 2 million b/d | Two pipelines, three different numbers each: design capacity, operator claim, and what is actually flowing |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5.8 million b/d | Saudi Arabia says Petroline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, five or six days after the strike on it |
Timeline
Earlier years show only their entries' dates and titles. Click a year heading to show the details.
202617 entries
- ReportKey moment
Bypass exports reach 5.6 million barrels a day, past the top of the capacity the IEA estimated
The October report put overall bypass exports up 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million, on the swift return of East-West pipeline flows. That is above the 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day of available alternative capacity the IEA's own chokepoint assessment had estimated in February, and it names 11 September as the date of the bombing that took the pipeline out — a day this page previously had only at month precision.
- International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 ·
The 11 September bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline and an exponential rise in freight rates compounded the rally.
- International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 ·
- Report
Tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar are reported targeted
Al Jazeera reported that multiple vessels were targeted overnight on Sunday into Monday, among them two outbound tankers and one at anchorage off the Omani port of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are said to be taking place. No official advisory confirms the incident. Sohar anchorage is one of the transfer points the bypass route on this page depends on.
- Al Jazeera · Oct 12, 2026 ·
Multiple vessels were targeted overnight Sunday to Monday, including two outbound tankers and one in anchorage near Oman’s port city of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are allegedly being conducted.
Editor's note: The cited Al Jazeera article, published October 12, 2026, contains the quoted statement verbatim and supports all details in the summary.
- Al Jazeera · Oct 12, 2026 ·
- Announcement
Saudi minister set a 10 million b/d pipeline-capacity target
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia could reach 10 million barrels per day of pipeline capacity within two to three years. The statement described a prospective capacity target.
- Bloomberg, republished by gCaptain · Oct 12, 2026 ·
We may end up with 10 million barrels within the next two to three years
Editor's note: The cited page reports that Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia was considering expanding pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels a day within two to three years. It was published October 12, 2026 and includes the quoted statement.
- Bloomberg, republished by gCaptain · Oct 12, 2026 ·
- Report
EIA now credits the workarounds with bringing shut-in production down
In its October outlook EIA attributed the expected fall in Middle East shut-in crude — from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 — to facilitated transits of the strait together with alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers. It is the first time the agency has put the bypass routes, rather than the strait reopening, at the centre of its recovery path.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration · Oct 6, 2026 ·
EIA expects oil production and exports out of the Middle East to gradually increase with facilitated transits through the Strait of Hormuz and as producers use alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration · Oct 6, 2026 ·
- ResponseKey moment
Saudi Arabia says Petroline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, five or six days after the strike on it
Energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a GCC forum panel in Manama that flows through the East-West Pipeline had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day, and that the line had been back in use within five or six days of the drone strike that hit it the previous month. The figure is an operator statement rather than an observed flow, and it is almost three times what the IEA had recorded running through the line at the start of the year.
- Al Jazeera · Oct 6, 2026 ·
Not everyone knows that within five or six days, we began using the pipeline again after the major attack that struck it
- Al Jazeera · Oct 6, 2026 ·
- DelayKey moment
Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the strait
The IEA reported that attacks on the pipeline carrying Saudi crude to Yanbu shut it down in early September, curtailing bypass flows further. For the weeks it was down, the single largest alternative to the Strait of Hormuz was unavailable at the same time as the strait itself.
- International Energy Agency · Sep 18, 2026 ·
Attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline that carries oil to Yanbu resulted in its shutdown in early September, curtailing bypass flows further.
led to Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.
Editor's note: Repaired in review. The entry as proposed carried a second source, an AP report of a three-to-five-week repair estimate, whose quote is not on that page; the AP source and the repair-estimate claim were both removed. The date was also moved from 10 September to month precision, because the IEA says "early September" and no opened source gives the day.
- International Energy Agency · Sep 18, 2026 ·
- Announcement
Agreement allocated 750,000 b/d of Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity
Türkiye's Energy Ministry said an agreement allocated 750,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity to SOMO and North Oil Company. The allocated amount was a portion of the pipeline's daily capacity.
- Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources · Aug 1, 2026 ·
İmzalanan anlaşma kapsamında, boru hattı günlük kapasitesinin 750 bin varillik kısmı SOMO/NOC şirketlerine tahsis edildi.
Editor's note: The ministry page dated 2026-08-01 states that 750,000 barrels of the pipeline’s daily capacity were allocated to SOMO/NOC. It explicitly describes this quantity as part of the pipeline’s daily capacity.
- Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources · Aug 1, 2026 ·
- ShipmentKey moment
Kpler said most Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes were likely UAE-origin
Kpler said most crude cargoes loaded through Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship operations were likely from the United Arab Emirates. It said the remaining cargoes comprised Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels.
- Kpler · Jun 17, 2026 ·
Most of these cargoes are likely UAE-origin, with the remainder comprising Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels.
Editor's note: The cited Kpler page, dated June 17, 2026, states that crude oil loaded from the Gulf of Oman after STS operations was mostly likely UAE-origin, with the remainder comprising Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels.
- Kpler · Jun 17, 2026 ·
- Shipment
IEA said Saudi Arabia ramped East-West Pipeline flows for Yanbu exports
The International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through the East-West Pipeline. It said the flows were for export through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
- International Energy Agency · Jun 22, 2026 ·
Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through its East-West pipeline for export via the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Editor's note: The cited IEA commentary, dated 2026-06-22, states that Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through its East-West Pipeline for export via the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
- International Energy Agency · Jun 22, 2026 ·
- Announcement
ADNOC said the second West-East Pipeline was 50% complete
ADNOC said the second West-East crude pipeline was 50% complete. It said delivery was being accelerated toward 2027.
- ADNOC · May 20, 2026 ·
Today it is already 50 percent complete, and we are accelerating delivery toward 2027.
Editor's note: ADNOC’s May 20, 2026 release says it was accelerating construction of a second pipeline to double export capacity through Fujairah, that it was already 50 percent complete, and that delivery was being accelerated toward 2027.
- ADNOC · May 20, 2026 ·
- AnnouncementKey moment
Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids Hormuz
Ten weeks into the closure, Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince directed ADNOC to accelerate the West-East 1 line, a pipeline running parallel to the existing Habshan-Fujairah route and intended to double the company's export capacity through Fujairah. It is due to be operational in 2027. The decision converts a standing hedge against a Hormuz closure into a construction schedule, and it is the only new bypass capacity anyone has committed to since the strait shut.
- Khaleej Times · May 15, 2026 ·
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has directed Adnoc on Friday to accelerate the delivery of the new West-East Pipeline project, which will double the oil giant's export capacity through Fujairah.
- ADNOC · May 15, 2026 ·
His Highness directed ADNOC to accelerate delivery of the project, as the company moves forward into a new phase of world-scale project execution to meet global energy demand.
result of Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.
Editor's note: Official source added: https://adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2026/khaled-bin-mohamed-bin-zayed--chairs-meeting-of-executive
- Khaleej Times · May 15, 2026 ·
- Financial
Aramco tells shareholders Petroline reached its maximum 7 million barrels a day, the number the IEA said had never been tested
In its first-quarter results Aramco said the East-West Pipeline had "sharply ramped up" to reach its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels a day during the quarter, supporting exports from Saudi Arabia's west coast, and chief executive Amin Nasser said the line had proven itself. It is the operator's own number for the figure the IEA had recorded in March 2025 as a claim whose sustainable flows had not been tested — and it arrived in a results release rather than an engineering disclosure, so it still states a capacity reached rather than a volume sustained.
- Saudi Aramco · May 10, 2026 ·
East-West Pipeline sharply ramped up to reach its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day in Q1, supporting exports via Saudi Arabia’s west coast
- Saudi Aramco · May 10, 2026 ·
- UpdateKey moment
Attack cut East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 b/d
Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said an attack included a pumping station on the East-West Pipeline. It said the attack caused a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput.
- Saudi Press Agency / Saudi Ministry of Energy · Apr 9, 2026 ·
These attacks included one of the pumping stations on the East-West Pipeline, leading to a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput.
Editor's note: The cited SPA page attributes the statement to an official source at Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy and states that an attack included an East-West Pipeline pumping station, causing a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput. It is dated April 9, 2026.
- Saudi Press Agency / Saudi Ministry of Energy · Apr 9, 2026 ·
- Announcement
KRG agreed to export Kirkuk and Kurdish oil through the Ceyhan route
The Kurdistan Regional Government said it agreed to export oil from Kirkuk fields alongside oil from Kurdistan Region fields through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline. The Iraqi News Agency reported that the Iraqi Ministry of Oil hoped the process would be completed within days to export Kirkuk oil directly.
- Kurdistan Regional Government · Mar 17, 2026 ·
The KRG expressed its agreement to export oil from the Kirkuk fields alongside oil from the Kurdistan Region’s own fields through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline.
- Iraqi News Agency · Mar 17, 2026 ·
It is hoped that it will be completed within the next few days so that it can be used to export Kirkuk oil directly.
Editor's note: The KRG statement dated 17 March 2026 confirms its agreement to export Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline. INA’s 17 March 2026 report quotes the Oil Ministry as hoping the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline work would be completed within days to enable direct Kirkuk exports.
- Kurdistan Regional Government · Mar 17, 2026 ·
- Report
Iran built its own way around the strait and has never used it
The Goreh-Jask pipeline and the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman were inaugurated in 2021 to give Iran an export route outside the strait it periodically threatens to close, with a reported capacity of a million barrels a day. A single test cargo left Jask in late 2024 and nothing since. The IEA does not count it as a viable export option, which is the asymmetry underneath the whole story — the country closing the strait has no working bypass of its own, while the two countries it blocks do.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
A test load was exported from Jask in late 2024, but no further oil has been exported from Jask since then.
contradicts Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
- ReportKey moment
Two pipelines, three different numbers each: design capacity, operator claim, and what is actually flowing
The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline runs 400 km from Habshan to Fujairah with a nameplate of 1.5 million barrels a day and a reported current capacity near 1.8 million; the UAE was already using about 1.1 million of it, leaving room for perhaps 700,000 more. Saudi Arabia's Petroline is two lines from Abqaiq to Yanbu with a design capacity of 5 million barrels a day, which Aramco said in March 2025 it had raised to 7 million — a level the IEA notes has not been tested at sustainable flows. In early 2026 only about 2 million barrels a day of it was in use.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
The system is composed of two lines with a total design capacity of 5 mb/d of crude oil. In March 2025, Aramco reported that it had increased capacity to 7 mb/d, but sustainable flows have not been tested at this level. As of early 2026, it is estimated that about 2 mb/d of the pipeline’s capacity is used, leaving between 3 and 5 mb/d of spare capacity, depending on operational conditions and available export capacity on the Saudi West Coast.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
- ReportKey moment
Twenty million barrels a day go through the strait, and at most five and a half can go around it
The IEA's standing assessment of the chokepoint sets the arithmetic this page is about. Nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude and products were exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, around a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, and only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational crude pipelines that can re-route any of it. The agency put the available bypass capacity at 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day, and warned that the logistics of actually moving substantial volumes that way have not been robustly tested.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational crude pipelines that could potentially re-route flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with an estimated 3.5 to 5.5 mb/d of available capacity. While additional capacity may exist in major pipelines to bypass the Strait, the logistics and supply chains needed to re-route and export substantial flows have not been robustly tested.
- International Energy Agency · Feb 2026 ·
20241 entry
- ShipmentKey moment
Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal
MEES reported that Iran exported its first crude oil cargo from Jask Oil Terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. The report identified the shipment as the terminal's first crude export cargo.
- MEES · Oct 25, 2024 ·
Vessel tracking data from Kpler show that Iran has exported the first crude oil cargo from its Jask oil terminal located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
is contradicted by Iran built its own way around the strait and has never used it.
Editor's note: The cited MEES page states that Iran exported the first crude oil cargo from Jask Oil Terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. It says the 2mn-barrel cargo loaded on 2024-09-30.
- MEES · Oct 25, 2024 ·
Cause and effect
- Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminalis contradicted by →Iran built its own way around the strait and has never used itMEES reported that Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal, which conflicts with the existing node's statement that Iran had never used its route around the strait.
- Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oilled to →Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids HormuzIran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz preceded Abu Dhabi's order, ten weeks into the closure, to accelerate a second Fujairah pipeline intended to expand export capacity outside the strait.
- Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the straitled to →Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 OilAttacks shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline in early September, and the resulting pipeline disruption led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September.
Where sources disagree or fall silent
- The IEA’s February estimate capped available bypass capacity at 5.5 million b/d, but its October report put bypass exports at 5.6 million b/d; it is unclear whether the difference reflects changed capacity, methodology, or a temporary level above the earlier estimate.
- Aramco’s reported 7.0 million b/d Petroline maximum and the Saudi minister’s later 5.8 million b/d figure are operator statements; the timeline does not establish how long either rate was sustained or provide independently observed flows.
- Iran’s Jask route is described by the IEA-based node as effectively unused and not viable, but MEES reported a first crude cargo from Jask in late 2024.
- The timeline does not establish the current sustained throughput, spare capacity, or terminal constraints for the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline beyond its nameplate and reported capacity figures.
- The 750,000 b/d Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline allocation does not show how much oil is actually flowing to Ceyhan or whether the route can reliably add export volumes.
- Reported attacks on tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar lack an official advisory confirmation, leaving the disruption to transfer operations unclear.
What to watch next
- Nov 3, 2026 — Saudi Aramco reports third-quarter results The results should provide the operator’s account of Petroline’s performance during the September shutdown and subsequent recovery.
- Nov 10, 2026 — EIA releases its November Short-Term Energy Outlook The outlook will show whether EIA still attributes falling Middle East shut-ins partly to bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
- 2027 — ADNOC’s West-East 1 pipeline is due to be operational The parallel Fujairah line is the only committed new bypass capacity in the timeline and is intended to double ADNOC’s export capacity through Fujairah.
Who is involved
- Saudi Arabiaother
Country whose crude flows were routed through the East-West Pipeline and whose pipeline was shut after attacks.
- East-West Pipelineproduct
Saudi crude pipeline affected by attacks, later used for Yanbu export flows, and shut again in September.
- International Energy Agencyregulator
Provides the baseline assessment of Hormuz volumes, available bypass capacity and subsequent bypass-export estimates.
- Iranother
Built the Goreh-Jask route to export outside Hormuz, but the route has only a reported first cargo and no established continuing use in the timeline.
- Saudi Aramcocompany
Operates Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and reported that it reached a 7.0 million b/d maximum during the first quarter of 2026.
- Abdulaziz bin Salmanperson
Said East-West Pipeline flows had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day and that the line resumed use within five or six days of the drone strike.
- ADNOCcompany
Operates Abu Dhabi’s Habshan-Fujairah crude route and is accelerating the parallel West-East 1 pipeline.
- Iraqother
Country of origin for part of the remaining Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler.
17 more
- Saudi Ministry of Energyregulator
Reported the April attack’s throughput loss and later described the East-West Pipeline’s recovery after the September strike.
- BOTAŞcompany
Party to the agreement allocating Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity.
- Iraq-Türkiye Pipelineproduct
Northern Iraqi export route to Ceyhan that avoids Hormuz, with 750,000 b/d allocated in the reported agreement.
- IRGCother
Iranian military organization identified in the report in connection with the vessel-targeting account.
- Jask Oil Terminalproduct
Terminal from which Iran's first reported crude cargo was exported.
- Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyanperson
As Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince, directed ADNOC to accelerate the West-East 1 line.
- Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipelineproduct
Pipeline route identified for planned Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil exports.
- Kplercompany
Reported that most Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship crude cargoes were likely UAE-origin, with the rest from Kuwait and Iraq.
- Kurdistan Regional Governmentregulator
Agreed in March to export Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil through the route to Ceyhan.
- Kuwaitother
Country of origin for part of the remaining Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler.
- North Oil Companycompany
Iraqi producer allocated part of the 750,000 b/d Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity arrangement.
- Petrolineproduct
Saudi crude-export pipeline named in connection with the pipeline-capacity target.
- SOMOcompany
Iraq’s state oil marketer, allocated 750,000 b/d of Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity in August.
- Sultan Ahmed Al Jaberperson
ADNOC executive associated with the announcement of the pipeline construction milestone.
Attributed part of the projected decline in Middle East shut-in crude to alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
- United Arab Emiratesother
Likely origin of most Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler.
- West-East Pipelineproduct
Crude pipeline project that ADNOC said was 50% complete.
Changelog
- Linked 1 entry with Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil. Added 3 entries: 2026-05-20 ADNOC said the second West-East Pipeline was 50% complete; 2026-10-12 Saudi minister set a 10 million b/d pipeline-capacity target; 2026-10-12 Tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar are reported targeted. Added 1 hand-verified entry by the editor.
- Linked 1 entry with Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil. Added 7 entries: 2024-09-30 Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal; 2026-03-17 KRG agreed to export Kirkuk and Kurdish oil through the Ceyhan route; 2026-04-09 Attack cut East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 b/d; 2026-06 IEA said Saudi Arabia ramped East-West Pipeline flows for Yanbu exports and 3 more. Added 1 hand-verified entry by the editor. Added 6 hand-verified entries by the editor.
A research pass records each dated fact with the page it came from and a verbatim quote. A second, independent pass re-opens every cited page and rejects entries it cannot confirm. The editor reviews what remains before it is published, and every change is listed above. Full method.