U.S. Energy Information Administration
The US government's energy statistics agency; its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook is the price and production forecast this site tracks.
Role in each timeline
- Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil
Publishes monthly forecasts for Hormuz flows, shut-in production, inventories, Brent, and US fuel prices.
- Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut
Attributed part of the projected decline in Middle East shut-in crude to alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
U.S. Energy Information Administration across every timeline
Every dated entry that names U.S. Energy Information Administration, from all 2 timelines, newest first.
- EIA now credits the workarounds with bringing shut-in production down Report
In its October outlook EIA attributed the expected fall in Middle East shut-in crude — from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 — to facilitated transits of the strait together with alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers. It is the first time the agency has put the bypass routes, rather than the strait reopening, at the centre of its recovery path.
on Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut - Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon Report
The October outlook recorded the worst month of the whole episode for prices. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, and EIA raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $105 — $14 above the previous month's — citing falling global inventories and tight diesel markets. US retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September and diesel $6.29. Shut-ins were expected to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 as facilitated transits, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers expanded. The outlook's own indicator table put the 2026 Brent average at $96 a barrel and 2027 at $84.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - East-West Pipeline partially resumes flows after repair Shipment
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows as of 22 September. Vortexa ship-tracking data indicated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption Update
The disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September. The IEA also reported that attacks had caused the shutdown of the pipeline.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in Report
EIA pushed its assumption out to the end of 2026. Traffic through the strait would stay constrained through the fourth quarter, leaving an average of 5.7 million barrels a day of Middle East crude production shut in over that quarter, even as flows gradually increased and producers used alternative export routes. The 2026 Brent forecast rose again, to $91 a barrel.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - One month after the reopening, EIA raises its shut-in estimate again — the constraints are back Report
The August outlook reversed part of July's optimism. EIA increased its estimate of shut-in Middle East crude production against the July forecast because transit through the strait was still constrained, and assumed those constraints would persist through August. It expected global inventories to fall and Brent to average $85 a barrel in the third quarter; the 2026 forecast went back up to $87.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - After a June 18 memorandum between Washington and Tehran, traffic resumes and EIA cuts its price forecast by $14 Report
EIA raised its global production forecast, citing increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on June 18 to end the conflict and reopen the strait. It expected crude production and trade flows back near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026 and most shut-in production online by the first quarter of 2027. The 2026 Brent forecast fell to $82 a barrel from $96, and the 2027 forecast to $65.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - The world is burning a million barrels a day less, and that is what is capping the price Report
EIA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast. High prices, reduced availability and government measures were curbing consumption, particularly in Asia, leaving the world using a million fewer barrels a day than the year before. The agency's point was uncomfortable — demand destruction, not restored supply, was holding Brent down. Abbey warned that any return to pre-conflict levels would have to reckon with a market that had already partly rearranged itself. The 2026 Brent average stayed at $95 a barrel, unchanged from May.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - EIA starts publishing chokepoint flows, because the closure showed nobody had the numbers Announcement
Alongside the May outlook, EIA announced a new quarterly energy security dataset covering global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for both petroleum and LNG, with the first release the following day. Abbey named the two unknowns the dataset was meant to narrow — when oil flows resume through the strait, and how fast Middle Eastern producers restore output. The outlook's indicator table held the 2026 Brent average at $95 a barrel.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - EIA has to model something it has never modelled: a closed Strait of Hormuz, and then a reopening Report
The April outlook was built on an assumption about how long the closure would last, because there was no precedent for either end of it. Administrator Tristan Abbey said full restoration of flows would take months and that fuel prices would keep rising until the variables resolved. The forecast for the 2026 Brent average jumped to $96 a barrel from $79 a month earlier, and retail gasoline to $3.70 a gallon.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen Report
In its first Short-Term Energy Outlook after military action began in the Middle East, EIA put the Brent spot price at $94 a barrel on March 9 — up about 50 percent since the start of the year — and tied the rise directly to falling petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shut-in Middle East production. The STEO's forecast for the 2026 average was $79 a barrel. Everything that follows on this page is measured against that number.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz Update
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March. EIA said the closure preceded an increase in tanker prices.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil