{
  "data_version": "1",
  "schema": "https://whatledto.com/data",
  "id": "us-energy-information-administration",
  "name": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
  "kind": "regulator",
  "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/us-energy-information-administration",
  "description": "The US government's energy statistics agency; its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook is the price and production forecast this site tracks.",
  "same_as": [
    "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Information_Administration",
    "https://www.eia.gov/"
  ],
  "timelines": [
    {
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "title": "Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows.json",
      "role": "Publishes monthly forecasts for Hormuz flows, shut-in production, inventories, Brent, and US fuel prices.",
      "entries": 11,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-16T02:10:55.460976+00:00"
    },
    {
      "slug": "middle-east-oil-export-routes",
      "title": "Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes.json",
      "role": "Attributed part of the projected decline in Middle East shut-in crude to alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers.",
      "entries": 1,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-14T14:58:27.422452+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "entries": [
    {
      "timeline": "middle-east-oil-export-routes",
      "id": 1970,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1970",
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "EIA now credits the workarounds with bringing shut-in production down",
      "summary": "In its October outlook EIA attributed the expected fall in Middle East shut-in crude — from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 — to facilitated transits of the strait together with alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers. It is the first time the agency has put the bypass routes, rather than the strait reopening, at the centre of its recovery path.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "EIA expects oil production and exports out of the Middle East to gradually increase with facilitated transits through the Strait of Hormuz and as producers use alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1948,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1948",
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon",
      "summary": "The October outlook recorded the worst month of the whole episode for prices. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, and EIA raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $105 — $14 above the previous month's — citing falling global inventories and tight diesel markets. US retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September and diesel $6.29. Shut-ins were expected to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 as facilitated transits, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers expanded. The outlook's own indicator table put the 2026 Brent average at $96 a barrel and 2027 at $84.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Tristan Abbey"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "tristan-abbey"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $114 per barrel (b) in September, $23/b higher than in August. EIA forecasts Brent will average $105/b in 4Q26, $14/b higher than in last month’s forecast, as Middle East disruptions contribute to falling global inventories and tight diesel markets keep prices high."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1963,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1963",
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "East-West Pipeline partially resumes flows after repair",
      "summary": "Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows as of 22 September. Vortexa ship-tracking data indicated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast.",
      "type": "shipment",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Saudi Arabia",
        "East-West Pipeline",
        "Vortexa"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "saudi-arabia",
        "east-west-pipeline",
        "vortexa"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf",
          "outlet": "EIA",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "Daily prices eased somewhat during the last week of September as the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was repaired and partially resumed flows as of September 22."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf",
          "outlet": "EIA",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "Ship tracking data from Vortexa indicates that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia increasingly used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman’s coast."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1962,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1962",
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption",
      "summary": "The disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September. The IEA also reported that attacks had caused the shutdown of the pipeline.",
      "type": "other",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "International Energy Agency",
        "Saudi Arabia",
        "East-West Pipeline",
        "Brent crude"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "international-energy-agency",
        "saudi-arabia",
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        "brent-crude"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf",
          "outlet": "EIA",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "The disruption of the pipeline led to the daily Brent spot price reaching as high as $131/b on September 15, as buyers scrambled to secure near-term supplies due to the loss of Saudi exports."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets",
          "outlet": "IEA",
          "published": null,
          "quote": "Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure by Iran-backed groups in both Yemen and Iraq also pose risks, having recently caused the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which brought 3.5 million barrels a day of crude exports to global markets in August."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1947,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1947",
      "date": "2026-09-09",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in",
      "summary": "EIA pushed its assumption out to the end of 2026. Traffic through the strait would stay constrained through the fourth quarter, leaving an average of 5.7 million barrels a day of Middle East crude production shut in over that quarter, even as flows gradually increased and producers used alternative export routes. The 2026 Brent forecast rose again, to $91 a barrel.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press592.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-09-09",
          "quote": "EIA expects constraints on traffic through the strait will continue through the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), leaving an average of 5.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production shut in during the quarter."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1946,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1946",
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "One month after the reopening, EIA raises its shut-in estimate again — the constraints are back",
      "summary": "The August outlook reversed part of July's optimism. EIA increased its estimate of shut-in Middle East crude production against the July forecast because transit through the strait was still constrained, and assumed those constraints would persist through August. It expected global inventories to fall and Brent to average $85 a barrel in the third quarter; the 2026 forecast went back up to $87.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press591.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-08-11",
          "quote": "EIA has increased its estimates of shut-in crude oil production in the Middle East in the coming months compared with the July forecast as a result of continued constraints on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The forecast assumes those constraints persist through August."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1945,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1945",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "After a June 18 memorandum between Washington and Tehran, traffic resumes and EIA cuts its price forecast by $14",
      "summary": "EIA raised its global production forecast, citing increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on June 18 to end the conflict and reopen the strait. It expected crude production and trade flows back near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026 and most shut-in production online by the first quarter of 2027. The 2026 Brent forecast fell to $82 a barrel from $96, and the 2027 forecast to $65.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Iran"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "iran"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-07-07",
          "quote": "Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased following the June 18 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran to end a months-long conflict and reopen the strait."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1944,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1944",
      "date": "2026-06-09",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "The world is burning a million barrels a day less, and that is what is capping the price",
      "summary": "EIA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast. High prices, reduced availability and government measures were curbing consumption, particularly in Asia, leaving the world using a million fewer barrels a day than the year before. The agency's point was uncomfortable — demand destruction, not restored supply, was holding Brent down. Abbey warned that any return to pre-conflict levels would have to reckon with a market that had already partly rearranged itself. The 2026 Brent average stayed at $95 a barrel, unchanged from May.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Tristan Abbey"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "tristan-abbey"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press589.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-06-09",
          "quote": "Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1943,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1943",
      "date": "2026-05-12",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "EIA starts publishing chokepoint flows, because the closure showed nobody had the numbers",
      "summary": "Alongside the May outlook, EIA announced a new quarterly energy security dataset covering global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for both petroleum and LNG, with the first release the following day. Abbey named the two unknowns the dataset was meant to narrow — when oil flows resume through the strait, and how fast Middle Eastern producers restore output. The outlook's indicator table held the 2026 Brent average at $95 a barrel.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Tristan Abbey"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "tristan-abbey"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press588.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-05-12",
          "quote": "On Wednesday, May 13, EIA will release a new energy security dataset, which will be published quarterly, with information on global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG)."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1942,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1942",
      "date": "2026-04-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "EIA has to model something it has never modelled: a closed Strait of Hormuz, and then a reopening",
      "summary": "The April outlook was built on an assumption about how long the closure would last, because there was no precedent for either end of it. Administrator Tristan Abbey said full restoration of flows would take months and that fuel prices would keep rising until the variables resolved. The forecast for the 2026 Brent average jumped to $96 a barrel from $79 a month earlier, and retail gasoline to $3.70 a gallon.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
        "Tristan Abbey"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-energy-information-administration",
        "tristan-abbey"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-04-07",
          "quote": "First, to even run our model we have to make an assumption about the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Second, we know that the closure is forcing production to shut in, but we can only estimate these outages. Third, just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows",
      "id": 1941,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1941",
      "date": "2026-03-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen",
      "summary": "In its first Short-Term Energy Outlook after military action began in the Middle East, EIA put the Brent spot price at $94 a barrel on March 9 — up about 50 percent since the start of the year — and tied the rise directly to falling petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shut-in Middle East production. The STEO's forecast for the 2026 average was $79 a barrel. Everything that follows on this page is measured against that number.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
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      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press584.php",
          "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration",
          "published": "2026-03-10",
          "quote": "The Brent crude oil spot price has risen sharply following the onset of military action in the Middle East. Brent settled at $94 per barrel (b) on March 9, up about 50% from the beginning of the year and the highest since September 2023."
        }
      ]
    },
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      "id": 1951,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1951",
      "date": "2026-03-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz",
      "summary": "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March. EIA said the closure preceded an increase in tanker prices.",
      "type": "other",
      "entities": [
        "Iran",
        "U.S. Energy Information Administration"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "iran",
        "us-energy-information-administration"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67386",
          "outlet": "EIA",
          "published": "2026-03-26",
          "quote": "The price increase followed Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2."
        }
      ]
    }
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