Economy
Household finances and the policies behind them: Social Security, tariffs and refunds, interest rates, benefits and the agencies that run them.
All events
Most recently updated firstOct22
Who Cut Jobs When: A Register of Major U.S. Layoffs, 2025 to 2026
This register begins with Meta’s January 2025 plan to cut about 3,600 employees and tracks large U.S. layoff announcements, WARN notices and monthly Challenger, Gray & Christmas totals. Announced cuts surged in 2025: Challenger counted 1.21 million, the highest annual total since 2020, with federal reductions and technology among the major drivers.
Oct21
Mortgage Rates: One Week Below 6 Percent, Then Back Above 7
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate first moved above 7 percent in January 2025 as the 10-year Treasury yield rose, then fell below 6 percent for one week in February 2026. That lower-rate window triggered a refinancing surge, but it closed quickly as higher oil prices, inflation data and rising Treasury yields pushed borrowing costs back up.
Oct19
Berkshire After Buffett: Greg Abel Takes Over, and the Cash Starts Moving
Warren Buffett announced in May 2025 that Greg Abel should succeed him, and Berkshire's board appointed Abel president and chief executive effective January 1, 2026. Charles Chang succeeded longtime CFO Marc Hamburg on June 1, 2026, while Hamburg is scheduled to retire in June 2027.
Oct19
Student Loans After SAVE: From the Court Block to the Repayment Assistance Plan
Courts blocked the Biden administration’s SAVE repayment plan in 2024, placing roughly eight million enrollees into a no-payment, no-interest forbearance. The Eighth Circuit later ordered SAVE vacated, and the Department of Education began moving borrowers out of the plan after Congress created the Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP) and Tiered Standard plan in 2025.
Oct16
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
The Fed began easing in September 2024, cutting the federal-funds target range from 5.25%-5.50% to 3.50%-3.75% by December 2025 after a nine-month pause earlier that year. Under Jerome Powell, disagreements first centered on whether to cut faster; after Kevin Warsh became chair in May 2026, inflation and energy-price pressures shifted the debate toward whether to tighten.
Oct14
Trump Accounts: From the 2025 Tax Law to the July 2026 Launch and the Employer Matches
The July 2025 reconciliation law created Trump Accounts after Brad Gerstner's Invest America campaign and a White House push involving major employers. The program offers tax-deferred accounts for children, including a one-time $1,000 Treasury deposit for children born from 2025 through 2028, but the original tax-return-based enrollment process left many eligible children—especially in lower-income and non-filing families—without an election.
Oct14
Record Beef Prices: The Smallest Herd Since 1951, the Packer Probe and the Import Fix
Years of drought-driven herd liquidation reduced the U.S. cattle inventory from 89.3 million head in 2023 to 86.2 million on January 1, 2026, the lowest level since 1951. The May 2025 closure of the Mexican border to live cattle over New World screwworm further constrained feeder-cattle supply, although imports resumed in limited phases at Douglas in August and Santa Teresa in September 2026.
Oct14
Social Security's Next Raise: From the 2.5% COLA to the 2027 Announcement
Social Security’s 2025 COLA was 2.5%, followed by a 2.8% increase for 2026 and a 3.6% increase announced for 2027. The 2027 adjustment, which raises the average retirement benefit by about $75 a month, follows a year in which forecasts moved with CPI-W data from 2.8% to as high as 3.9% before converging near the final figure.
Oct14
How the Social Security COLA Is Set: From the 1973 Law to the Third-Quarter CPI-W Formula
Social Security benefit increases were once set through separate acts of Congress. Amendments enacted in 1973 made cost-of-living adjustments automatic and tied them to inflation, with the first automatic 8.0 percent increase payable in June 1975.
Oct14
The US–Canada Trade War: From the Fentanyl Tariffs to Section 338 and Dollar-for-Dollar Retaliation
The conflict began with Donald Trump's November 2024 threat to impose tariffs on Canada over fentanyl and border concerns, followed by IEEPA tariffs and Canadian retaliation in early 2025. A USMCA exemption sharply limited the reach of the fentanyl tariffs, but separate U.S. Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber remained a major source of pressure; the Supreme Court later struck down the IEEPA tariffs.
Oct14
IEEPA Tariff Refunds: From the Supreme Court Ruling to the Console Lawsuits
President Trump used IEEPA in February and April 2025 to impose broad emergency import duties, but the Court of International Trade and then the Federal Circuit held that IEEPA did not authorize them. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court affirmed that conclusion 6-3, opening the way for refunds of duties CBP said totaled about $166 billion; a same-day 10% Section 122 replacement surcharge was separately invalidated at the trade court, stayed on appeal, and then expired on July 24.
Oct14
Medicare Advantage's Retreat: From the 2026 Rate Hike to the 2027 Plan Exits and Open Enrollment
CMS raised Medicare Advantage payments 5.06% for 2026, then launched an every-contract annual RADV audit strategy aimed at unsupported risk-adjustment diagnoses. The audit effort has been constrained by a court ruling vacating the extrapolation rule, and CMS has not yet decided whether to collect extrapolated payment-year 2024 overpayments.
Questions answered
All questions →How did AI contribute to the 2025–26 layoffs?
AI was an explicit stated rationale in several company-specific cuts, but the register does not support treating it as the sole explanation for the broader…
How did Canada’s response become dollar-for-dollar retaliation?
Canada first answered the IEEPA order with a C$155 billion retaliation plan and began its first C$30 billion tranche when the U.S. tariffs took effect. It…
How did employer matches become a major part of Trump Accounts?
Employer involvement began with early corporate pledges, then became more workable after Labor said employer contributions would usually avoid ERISA Title I.…
How did IEEPA tariff refunds become available?
IEEPA tariff refunds became available because the administration imposed import duties under IEEPA, courts concluded that statute did not authorize those…
How did Nintendo go from delaying Switch 2 pre-orders over tariffs to saying refunds helped pay for a sale?
Nintendo first delayed U.S. Switch 2 pre-orders to assess tariff effects. The courts then held that IEEPA did not authorize the tariffs, leading to broad…
How did the U.S.–Canada trade war escalate from fentanyl tariffs to Section 338 duties?
The conflict moved through successive legal tools rather than one uninterrupted tariff. The initial IEEPA tariffs were narrowed for USMCA-compliant goods and…
How did Trump Accounts get from a White House proposal to a July 2026 launch?
Trump Accounts moved from a White House-backed pitch with business participation into a July 2025 law, then through a tax-return election system, proposed…
How did Warsh inherit a Fed that was holding rates steady?
Warsh inherited a federal-funds range of 3.5% to 3.75% because the Fed resumed easing in September 2025 and cut three times through December, then stopped…
What led markets to anticipate the September 2026 Fed increase that occurred?
Markets anticipated the September increase because the July meeting had three regional presidents favoring a hike, and Kevin Warsh subsequently said inflation…
What led to concern that Social Security benefits could be cut in 2033?
The concern comes from a worsening retirement-fund outlook alongside policy choices that add costs or reduce revenue. The trustees moved the retirement-fund…
What led to record U.S. announced job cuts in 2025?
The 2025 total was built from large cuts with different stated rationales, rather than one uniform layoff wave. Meta began with performance-based reductions…
Why are beef packers and grocery chains under investigation over beef prices?
The investigations followed record retail beef prices, but the government is examining whether conduct in the supply chain also contributed to affordability…
Why are defaulted student-loan collections still uncertain?
The government restarted the collection process with Treasury offset notices and then announced wage garnishment, but it subsequently delayed involuntary…
Why are insurers cutting Medicare Advantage plans and counties for 2027?
The 2027 pullbacks followed cost-driven retrenchment that had already begun at large carriers, then a proposed 0.09% payment update that offered little…
Why are some 2027 Medicare Advantage quality-bonus ratings being recalculated?
Some 2027 quality-bonus ratings were recalculated because a federal court held that CMS exceeded its statutory authority in calculating ten star measures in…
Why are some IEEPA tariff refunds still disputed?
Some IEEPA refunds remain disputed because the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the tariffs did not itself determine remedial relief for every importer and…
Why are U.S. beef prices still forecast to rise despite expanded imports?
Beef prices remained under pressure because the domestic cattle inventory continued to contract, reaching 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, the smallest…
Why did announced U.S. job cuts slow in 2026 despite continued large layoffs?
The slowdown largely reflects the fading of the federal-workforce reduction that helped make 2025 exceptional, rather than an end to major corporate cuts.…
Why did console buyers sue Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft over tariff refunds?
Console buyers sued because IEEPA tariffs were invalidated and console companies could seek or receive refunds of duties that buyers say had contributed to…
Why did many eligible children initially miss the $1,000 Trump Account deposit?
The federal deposit was initially tied to an eligible child and an account-opening election rather than arriving automatically. Treasury built that election…
Why did mortgage rates rebound after dropping below 6% in February 2026?
The February sub-6% mortgage reading did not last because conditions relevant to longer-term borrowing costs turned less favorable. Middle East developments…
Why did SAVE borrowers have to choose a new repayment plan?
Court orders first blocked and then ended SAVE, removing it as a continuing repayment option. Congress had already created RAP and Tiered Standard, and the…
Why did the Fed resume rate cuts in September 2025?
The Fed had cut three times in late 2024, but its December projections anticipated a much slower 2025 easing path and the committee then held rates through…
Why did the Section 122 surcharge fail to replace the IEEPA tariffs?
Section 122 was a temporary fallback, not a durable substitute for the IEEPA program. The original IEEPA tariffs had been expanded globally and then rejected…
Why is Canada ready to negotiate after the September 2026 escalation?
Canada’s readiness reflects a narrow opening, not a settled deal. Section 338 talks had collapsed, the United States imposed 50 percent duties, Canada…
Why is the transition from SAVE to RAP still unsettled?
SAVE was ended by final judgment and RAP is in force, but moving borrowers remains contested and error-prone. The Department directed roughly 7.5 million SAVE…
Why was the 2027 Social Security COLA 3.6%?
The 2027 Social Security COLA was 3.6 percent because the number is a formula, not a decision. Legislation enacted in 1973 made Social Security raises…