How did Warsh inherit a Fed that was holding rates steady?
Warsh inherited a federal-funds range of 3.5% to 3.75% because the Fed resumed easing in September 2025 and cut three times through December, then stopped moving rates in January 2026. The committee kept holding as inflation remained elevated. Trump named Warsh after the first 2026 hold; after Senate confirmation and his swearing-in, Warsh’s first meeting was a unanimous hold. By July, the range was still unchanged, but three regional presidents wanted an increase, showing that a hold did not mean the committee was united on its next move.
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The policy turn
- 1Slower 2025 outlookAnnouncement
Third cut of 2024 takes the range to 4.25 to 4.5 percent; projections pencil in only two cuts for 2025
The FOMC cut by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting, but the new projections showed just two cuts in 2025 instead of four and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented for no change. Markets fell sharply and the ten-year yield rose; the range would then stay unchanged for nine months as tariffs clouded the inflation outlook.
Federal Reserve Board ·
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.
Why it matters here. The reduced projection of two 2025 cuts rather than four was followed by five straight meetings holding the range at 4.25% to 4.5%.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 2Five holds, two dissentsAnnouncement
Fifth straight hold at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with two governors dissenting for a cut
Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point cut, the first time two governors had dissented together since 1993, as President Trump escalated demands for lower rates and named Powell's replacement a running theme. The statement said growth had moderated, the labour market remained solid and inflation was somewhat elevated. Trump had toured the Fed's renovation site the week before.
Federal Reserve Board ·
Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Why it matters here. The July dissents for a cut preceded Powell’s August assessment that shifting risks could warrant a policy adjustment.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 3Powell opens doorAnnouncement
Jackson Hole: Powell says the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy
In his final Jackson Hole speech as chair Powell said the labour market was in a curious kind of balance with both supply and demand for workers slowing, that tariff effects on prices were now visible, and that with policy restrictive the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks might warrant a change in stance. The Fed also released its revised framework, dropping the 2020 average inflation targeting language. Markets took it as a signal for a September cut.
Federal Reserve Board ·
Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.
Why it matters here. The Jackson Hole signal was followed by the September quarter-point cut, which cited downside risks to employment.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 4September cutAnnouncement
First cut of 2025: a quarter point to 4 to 4.25 percent, citing downside risks to employment
The FOMC resumed easing after nine months, saying downside risks to employment had risen, and the projections showed two more cuts in 2025. Miran dissented on his first day in favour of a half-point cut; Bowman and Waller, who had dissented in July, voted with the majority. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.26 percent that week, the lowest in almost a year.
Federal Reserve Board ·
In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent.
Why it matters here. The projections for two further 2025 cuts were followed by another quarter-point reduction in October.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 5October cutAnnouncement
Second cut to 3.75 to 4 percent; balance-sheet runoff to end December 1; dissents in both directions
With the government shut down and most official data suspended, the committee cut again and announced it would stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1. Miran again wanted a half point while Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid wanted no change. Powell said a December cut was far from a foregone conclusion.
Federal Reserve Board ·
The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.
Why it matters here. The October decision, which also set balance-sheet runoff to end on December 1, was followed by a third consecutive cut in December.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 6December range reachedAnnouncement
Third cut of the year to 3.5 to 3.75 percent, over three dissents
The FOMC delivered a third consecutive quarter-point cut, taking the range 75 basis points below its September level. Miran dissented for a larger cut while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold, the most dissents at a meeting since 2019. The projections showed only one cut in 2026, and this was the last change in the target range for at least the following nine months.
Federal Reserve Board ·
Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred…
Why it matters here. The December cut became the last rate move before the committee’s first 2026 hold at 3.5% to 3.75%.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 7First 2026 holdAnnouncement
First hold of 2026 at 3.5 to 3.75 percent; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut
The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.
Federal Reserve Board ·
Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Why it matters here. With job gains low, unemployment showing signs of stabilising, and inflation still somewhat elevated, the unchanged range was in place when Trump named Warsh two days later.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
The succession
- 8Warsh is nominatedAnnouncement
Trump names Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed chair
Ending a search that had run since the summer of 2025 and considered nearly a dozen names, including governors Waller and Bowman, Trump announced on Truth Social that former governor Kevin Warsh, 55, would be his nominee for chair when Powell's term ended in May. Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 who had called for regime change at the central bank, would take the board seat held by Miran, whose term expired the next day. Gold and silver fell on the pick as markets read it as less of a threat to independence.
CNBC ·
President Donald Trump on Friday named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, ending a prolonged odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank.
Why it matters here. Trump’s announcement ending the search for Powell’s successor was followed by Senate confirmation in May.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 9Senate confirms WarshAnnouncement
Senate confirms Warsh 54 to 45, the narrowest vote for a Fed chair in the modern era
Only Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman crossed party lines. The confirmation came as fresh data showed inflation well above 2 percent and producer-price pressures at a three-year high, and markets had stopped pricing cuts. Powell's chair term expired two days later; he said he would stay on the board at least until the investigation into the Fed's headquarters renovation was complete, the first former chair to remain as governor in nearly 80 years.
CNBC ·
The Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Warsh, ending a monthslong saga that began in the summer of 2025 and included an extensive search for Powell's successor. The vote was almost completely along party lines, with only…
Why it matters here. Confirmation cleared the way for Warsh to be sworn in nine days later and elected chair by the FOMC.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 10Warsh takes the chairAnnouncement
Warsh sworn in as chair at the White House; the FOMC elects him unanimously
Justice Clarence Thomas administered the oath in the East Room with Trump present, saying he wanted Warsh to be totally independent. The Fed noted that Trump had formally nominated Warsh on March 4, the Senate had confirmed him as a governor on May 12 and as chair on May 13, and that his term as chair runs to May 21, 2030, with a board term to January 31, 2040. The same day the FOMC unanimously chose him as its chairman.
Federal Reserve Board ·
President Donald J. Trump nominated Mr. Warsh on March 4, 2026. He was confirmed by the United States Senate to serve as a member of the Board on May 12, and as chairman of the Board on May 13. His term as chairman…
Why it matters here. Warsh’s swearing-in was followed by his first FOMC meeting, where all 12 voters held the range unchanged.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
Warsh's early meetings
- 11First unanimous holdAnnouncement
Warsh's first meeting: a unanimous hold and a rewritten, shorter statement
The committee held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote, its first unanimous decision since June 2025, and issued a shorter statement in a new format that leads with the decision and reaffirms a policy of ample reserves. It described growth as solid despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, productivity and capital investment as strong, and inflation as elevated relative to target.
Federal Reserve Board ·
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of…
Why it matters here. The unchanged June decision was followed by a fifth straight hold in July, though three regional presidents preferred an increase.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- 12Hike dissenters emergeAnnouncement
Fifth straight hold; three regional presidents dissent in favour of a rate increase
The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferring a quarter-point increase, the first dissents for a hike since 2019 and a sign the debate under Warsh had flipped from when to cut to whether to tighten. Inflation remained elevated relative to target and core PCE was running near 3.3 percent.
Federal Reserve Board ·
Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Why it matters here. The fifth hold alongside three dissents for a quarter-point increase left the committee holding rates but facing a more hawkish internal division.
The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
Changes to this chain
- Proposal #31 accepted (verify:v1):
Timelines in this chain
- The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings
- Social Security's Next Raise: From the 2.5% COLA to the 2027 Announcement
- Record Beef Prices: The Smallest Herd Since 1951, the Packer Probe and the Import Fix
- IEEPA Tariff Refunds: From the Supreme Court Ruling to the Console Lawsuits
A chain is written by the editor from entries already published on the timelines above, each of which was read against its source before publication. The chain changes when those entries do. Data and terms.