Stephen Miran

The FOMC held for a third meeting, describing inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices. Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported holding but objected to the statement's easing bias, the widest split under Powell. The Senate Banking Committee had advanced Warsh's nomination on a party-line vote the same day.

With oil prices rising on the conflict in the Middle East, the committee held for a second meeting and added that the implications for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Miran dissented alone for a quarter-point cut. Trump had formally sent Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4.

The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.

The FOMC delivered a third consecutive quarter-point cut, taking the range 75 basis points below its September level. Miran dissented for a larger cut while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold, the most dissents at a meeting since 2019. The projections showed only one cut in 2026, and this was the last change in the target range for at least the following nine months.

With the government shut down and most official data suspended, the committee cut again and announced it would stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1. Miran again wanted a half point while Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid wanted no change. Powell said a December cut was far from a foregone conclusion.

The FOMC resumed easing after nine months, saying downside risks to employment had risen, and the projections showed two more cuts in 2025. Miran dissented on his first day in favour of a half-point cut; Bowman and Waller, who had dissented in July, voted with the majority. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.26 percent that week, the lowest in almost a year.

The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers took the oath as a Fed governor one day after a party-line Senate confirmation and two weeks after his nomination, filling Adriana Kugler's seat with a term ending January 31, 2026. He took unpaid leave from the White House rather than resigning, which drew criticism about the Fed's independence, and voted at the next day's meeting.