Federal Open Market Committee

John C. Williams said it may be appropriate for the Federal Open Market Committee to raise rates one more time in 2026. Williams is a permanent voting member of the committee.

Beth Hammack said a restrictive monetary-policy stance was appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent. CNBC reported that her comments implied further interest-rate increases could occur.

Christopher J. Waller said he anticipated additional rate increases if economic data continued as expected. He said there was flexibility over when those increases would occur.

Federal-funds futures prices implied an 85 percent probability of at least one rate increase by the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. The same prices put the probability of two increases by that meeting at nearly 20 percent.

The September FOMC minutes disclosed discussion of preparing for possible Treasury-market dysfunction. Participants suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools while limiting its footprint in the Treasury market.

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting said most participants expected another increase in the federal-funds target range would likely be appropriate by year-end. The minutes were released on October 7.

Mary C. Daly said she supported the September interest-rate increase because inflation risks had risen. She said whether additional increases would be needed depended on whether inflation shocks faded or compounded.

The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.28 percent and the two-year Treasury yield near 4.83 percent. Reuters reported the 10-year yield at 5.281 percent and the two-year yield at 4.827 percent late in the session.

Federal-funds futures pricing implied a 22.7 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that the probability had been 24.4 percent in the prior session and 64.2 percent a week earlier.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected further rate increases but had no strong view on whether the next increase should occur at the end of October. His September projections included one additional quarter-point increase in 2026 and another in 2027.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she estimated that the federal-funds target range needed to rise by at least another 50 basis points. She described September's increase as a first step and said policy needed to become modestly restrictive.

Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said future policy adjustments should be based on data trends, the outlook, and the balance of risks. He said he supported September's quarter-point increase and that policymakers may need more time to assess inflation's return to target.

Donald Trump said he would probably have voted against the Federal Reserve Board if he were Kevin Warsh. He said Warsh should have voted against the Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates while saying he did not hold Warsh personally responsible.

Futures-implied odds of at least a quarter-point increase at the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting fell to 51.5 percent. Reuters reported that the odds had been nearly 70 percent earlier in the session and declined after Williams's comments.

Michael S. Barr said his base case was that further policy adjustments would likely be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said inflation risks had increased while labor-market risks had receded.

John C. Williams said the September policy action gave policymakers time to gather more information before another decision. He said one further increase could be appropriate late in 2026 if his forecast proved correct.

John C. Williams said another rate increase by year-end could be appropriate. Reuters reported that he referred to September projections showing one further increase as the median path.

Anna Paulson said modest additional tightening could be warranted if conditions evolved as she expected. She said she supported the September 25-basis-point increase because underlying inflation had made little or no progress while growth and labor-market conditions had firmed.

Michael S. Barr said further monetary-policy adjustments would probably be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said strong growth, a solid labor market, and inflation above target had changed the balance of risks and led him to support the September increase.

In the projections issued with the decision, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, against 3.8 and 3.6 percent in the June round, and raised the median core PCE inflation projection for 2026 to 3.4 percent. With the target range just moved to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the 2026 median implies one further increase this year; Axios counted 12 of 18 officials projecting it.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote had no dissents.

Investors priced an 85 percent probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting ending the following Wednesday. Axios reported that CME's FedWatch estimate was 72 percent before that day's inflation data.

Traders priced a roughly 70 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62 percent before the producer price data, according to LSEG interest rate probabilities.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the strongest month since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent; bars and restaurants led and information jobs fell, possibly on AI investment. Short-dated Treasury yields rose and CME FedWatch showed about 60 percent odds of a quarter-point increase at the first meeting with new projections under Warsh, pending the August CPI and PPI reports the following week.

Governor Christopher J. Waller said his September vote would depend principally on the August inflation data. He said continued inflation progress would incline him to support holding rates, while a hot reading could lead him to consider a rate increase.

Governor Michael S. Barr said he would favor raising interest rates if inflation did not appear to be moderating sufficiently. He said that progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective would support taking more time to assess the policy stance at the September meeting.

The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferring a quarter-point increase, the first dissents for a hike since 2019 and a sign the debate under Warsh had flipped from when to cut to whether to tighten. Inflation remained elevated relative to target and core PCE was running near 3.3 percent.

The Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of five task forces on monetary-policy practice. The task forces will examine communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, with findings intended for the Federal Open Market Committee.

The June FOMC minutes said Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces. The task forces were to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.

The committee held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote, its first unanimous decision since June 2025, and issued a shorter statement in a new format that leads with the decision and reaffirms a policy of ample reserves. It described growth as solid despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, productivity and capital investment as strong, and inflation as elevated relative to target.

The FOMC held for a third meeting, describing inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices. Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported holding but objected to the statement's easing bias, the widest split under Powell. The Senate Banking Committee had advanced Warsh's nomination on a party-line vote the same day.

With oil prices rising on the conflict in the Middle East, the committee held for a second meeting and added that the implications for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Miran dissented alone for a quarter-point cut. Trump had formally sent Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4.

The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.

The FOMC delivered a third consecutive quarter-point cut, taking the range 75 basis points below its September level. Miran dissented for a larger cut while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold, the most dissents at a meeting since 2019. The projections showed only one cut in 2026, and this was the last change in the target range for at least the following nine months.

With the government shut down and most official data suspended, the committee cut again and announced it would stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1. Miran again wanted a half point while Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid wanted no change. Powell said a December cut was far from a foregone conclusion.

The FOMC resumed easing after nine months, saying downside risks to employment had risen, and the projections showed two more cuts in 2025. Miran dissented on his first day in favour of a half-point cut; Bowman and Waller, who had dissented in July, voted with the majority. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.26 percent that week, the lowest in almost a year.

Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point cut, the first time two governors had dissented together since 1993, as President Trump escalated demands for lower rates and named Powell's replacement a running theme. The statement said growth had moderated, the labour market remained solid and inflation was somewhat elevated. Trump had toured the Fed's renovation site the week before.

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on May 7, 2025.

Beginning in April, the FOMC reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Federal Reserve published the statement on March 19, 2025.

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on January 29, 2025.

The FOMC cut by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting, but the new projections showed just two cuts in 2025 instead of four and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented for no change. Markets fell sharply and the ten-year yield rose; the range would then stay unchanged for nine months as tariffs clouded the inflation outlook.

The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on November 7, 2024.

After holding at 5.25 to 5.5 percent for fourteen months, the FOMC opened its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut, saying it had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent while job gains had slowed. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favour of a quarter point, the first dissent by a governor since 2005. Mortgage rates had already fallen to about 6.1 percent in anticipation.