{
  "data_version": "1",
  "schema": "https://whatledto.com/data",
  "id": "federal-open-market-committee",
  "name": "Federal Open Market Committee",
  "kind": "regulator",
  "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/federal-open-market-committee",
  "description": "The Fed committee that sets the federal funds rate at eight meetings a year.",
  "same_as": [
    "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee"
  ],
  "timelines": [
    {
      "slug": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "title": "The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026.json",
      "role": "Sets the federal-funds target range and directed the 2024-25 easing cycle, the 2026 holds, and the September 2026 rate increase.",
      "entries": 43,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-16T02:10:22.232634+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "entries": [
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2156,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2156",
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Williams says one further 2026 rate increase may be appropriate",
      "summary": "John C. Williams said it may be appropriate for the Federal Open Market Committee to raise rates one more time in 2026. Williams is a permanent voting member of the committee.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "John C. Williams",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "john-c-williams",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/john-williams-fed-rate-hikes-2027.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-10-13",
          "quote": "I haven't changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2133,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2133",
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Hammack says restrictive policy stance remains appropriate",
      "summary": "Beth Hammack said a restrictive monetary-policy stance was appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent. CNBC reported that her comments implied further interest-rate increases could occur.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Beth Hammack",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "beth-hammack",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-cleveland",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.clevelandfed.org/collections/press-releases/2026/pr-20261012-cleveland-fed-president-hammack-speech",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland",
          "published": "2026-10-12",
          "quote": "Considering all the inputs that factor into my reaction function, a restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-10-12",
          "quote": "Hammack's comments implied that more interest rate hikes could be on the horizon."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2130,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2130",
      "date": "2026-10-08",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Waller anticipates additional rate increases if data meet expectations",
      "summary": "Christopher J. Waller said he anticipated additional rate increases if economic data continued as expected. He said there was flexibility over when those increases would occur.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2129,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2129",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures price 85 percent odds of a December rate increase",
      "summary": "Federal-funds futures prices implied an 85 percent probability of at least one rate increase by the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. The same prices put the probability of two increases by that meeting at nearly 20 percent.",
      "type": "financial",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "According to futures market prices for the federal funds rate as of yesterday, traders see an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the FOMC's December meeting and nearly 20 percent chance of two hikes."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1902,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1902",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September minutes discuss preparation for Treasury-market dysfunction",
      "summary": "The September FOMC minutes disclosed discussion of preparing for possible Treasury-market dysfunction. Participants suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools while limiting its footprint in the Treasury market.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "quote": "“They suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools for addressing market dysfunction, should it occur, while limiting the Federal Reserve's footprint in the Treasury market.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1901,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1901",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September minutes show most participants expected another 2026 increase",
      "summary": "Minutes of the September FOMC meeting said most participants expected another increase in the federal-funds target range would likely be appropriate by year-end. The minutes were released on October 7.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "quote": "“With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1895,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1895",
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Daly says further rate increases depend on inflation shocks",
      "summary": "Mary C. Daly said she supported the September interest-rate increase because inflation risks had risen. She said whether additional increases would be needed depended on whether inflation shocks faded or compounded.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Mary C. Daly",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "mary-c-daly",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-san-francisco",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/06/fed-ai-daly-inflation-chips",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "“Whether more will be needed depends on the same set of conditions ... that I mentioned,” she says."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1790,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1790",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Treasury yields end higher after the September payroll report",
      "summary": "The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.28 percent and the two-year Treasury yield near 4.83 percent. Reuters reported the 10-year yield at 5.281 percent and the two-year yield at 4.827 percent late in the session.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/stocks-climb-after-weak-us-jobs-data-but-bonds-resume-selling-ce785ddbd88ff221",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last up 4.72 basis points at 5.281%, while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, was up 3.98 bps at 4.827%.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/nasdaq-adds-319-points-as-rate-hike-odds-ebb-stock-market-today",
          "outlet": "Kiplinger",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The 10-year Treasury yield (+4.5 bps, 5.279%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+2.5 bps, 5.628%) followed similar trajectories.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1789,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1789",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures imply a 22.7 percent chance of an October Fed rate increase",
      "summary": "Federal-funds futures pricing implied a 22.7 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that the probability had been 24.4 percent in the prior session and 64.2 percent a week earlier.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "CME Group",
        "CME FedWatch",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-group",
        "cme-fedwatch",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/equities-close-higher-as-softer-jobs-data-quiets-rate-hike-expectations-ce785ddbd88df124",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The weaker-than-anticipated data pulled down expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its meeting at the end of October to 22.7%, according to CME FedWatch, from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/nasdaq-adds-319-points-as-rate-hike-odds-ebb-stock-market-today",
          "outlet": "Kiplinger",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“According to CME FedWatch, price action in the federal funds futures market indicates a 22.7% probability the Fed hikes rate by 25 basis points at the October Fed meeting, down from 64.2% a week ago.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1786,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1786",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Kashkari expects further rate increases but is open on October timing",
      "summary": "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected further rate increases but had no strong view on whether the next increase should occur at the end of October. His September projections included one additional quarter-point increase in 2026 and another in 2027.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Neel Kashkari",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "neel-kashkari",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-minneapolis",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/fed-policymakers-lean-against-october-rate-hike",
          "outlet": "The Business Times, reporting Reuters and Bloomberg",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“I don’t have a strong view” as to whether the next hike should happen at month’s end."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1785,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1785",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Logan says the target range needs at least 50 more basis points",
      "summary": "Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she estimated that the federal-funds target range needed to rise by at least another 50 basis points. She described September's increase as a first step and said policy needed to become modestly restrictive.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Lorie Logan",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "lorie-logan",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-dallas",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/logan/2026/lkl261001",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "“Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1784,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1784",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jefferson says future policy changes should await further assessment",
      "summary": "Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said future policy adjustments should be based on data trends, the outlook, and the balance of risks. He said he supported September's quarter-point increase and that policymakers may need more time to assess inflation's return to target.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Philip N. Jefferson",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "philip-n-jefferson",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "“As we look ahead, my view is that any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1776,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1776",
      "date": "2026-10",
      "date_precision": "month",
      "title": "Trump says Warsh should have opposed the September rate increase",
      "summary": "Donald Trump said he would probably have voted against the Federal Reserve Board if he were Kevin Warsh. He said Warsh should have voted against the Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates while saying he did not hold Warsh personally responsible.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/trump-says-warsh-should-have-voted-against-feds-rate-hike",
          "outlet": "Bloomberg Law",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "I don’t blame Kevin Warsh. I probably would have voted against the board if I were him,"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://qz.com/trump-warsh-fed-rate-hike-vote-100126",
          "outlet": "Quartz",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh should have voted against the central bank's recent decision to raise interest rates, but added that he does not hold Warsh personally responsible for the move."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1589,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1589",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "October rate-hike odds fall to 51.5 percent",
      "summary": "Futures-implied odds of at least a quarter-point increase at the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting fell to 51.5 percent. Reuters reported that the odds had been nearly 70 percent earlier in the session and declined after Williams's comments.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "CME FedWatch",
        "John C. Williams",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-fedwatch",
        "john-c-williams",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/09/29/equities-dip-as-bond-yields-hold-near-multi-decade-highs/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its October meeting declined to 51.5%, according to CME FedWatch, in the wake of Williams’ comments, from nearly 70% earlier in the session.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1587,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1587",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Barr says further policy adjustments are likely",
      "summary": "Michael S. Barr said his base case was that further policy adjustments would likely be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said inflation risks had increased while labor-market risks had receded.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260929a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/09/29/equities-dip-as-bond-yields-hold-near-multi-decade-highs/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“While the Fed’s Williams expressed patience for more rate hikes, other policymakers took a more hawkish stance, with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr saying more hikes are likely needed.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1586,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1586",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Williams says there is no urgency for another rate increase",
      "summary": "John C. Williams said the September policy action gave policymakers time to gather more information before another decision. He said one further increase could be appropriate late in 2026 if his forecast proved correct.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "John C. Williams",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "john-c-williams",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260929",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/09/29/equities-dip-as-bond-yields-hold-near-multi-decade-highs/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“Williams said the US central bank has time to weigh the data before deciding when to hike interest rates again.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1494,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1494",
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "John C. Williams says tighter monetary policy is coming",
      "summary": "John C. Williams said another rate increase by year-end could be appropriate. Reuters reported that he referred to September projections showing one further increase as the median path.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "John C. Williams",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "john-c-williams",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/fed-officials-see-rates-likely-rising-to-curb-high-inflation-ce785adfd989f526",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-09-24",
          "quote": "“Speaking in London, New York Fed President John Williams also suggested tighter monetary policy is coming.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1493,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1493",
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Anna Paulson says modest further tightening may be warranted",
      "summary": "Anna Paulson said modest additional tightening could be warranted if conditions evolved as she expected. She said she supported the September 25-basis-point increase because underlying inflation had made little or no progress while growth and labor-market conditions had firmed.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Anna Paulson",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "anna-paulson",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-philadelphia",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Institutional/speeches/paulson/2026/260924-fintech-speech.pdf",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia",
          "published": "2026-09-24",
          "quote": "“Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1492,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1492",
      "date": "2026-09-23",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Michael S. Barr says further policy adjustments may be needed",
      "summary": "Michael S. Barr said further monetary-policy adjustments would probably be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said strong growth, a solid labor market, and inflation above target had changed the balance of risks and led him to support the September increase.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260923a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-23",
          "quote": "“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1347,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1347",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September projections put the funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of 2026, implying one more increase",
      "summary": "In the projections issued with the decision, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, against 3.8 and 3.6 percent in the June round, and raised the median core PCE inflation projection for 2026 to 3.4 percent. With the target range just moved to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the 2026 median implies one further increase this year; Axios counted 12 of 18 officials projecting it.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2029 and over the longer run."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/16/fed-rates-warsh-trump",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "The announcement was accompanied by new projections that show a healthy majority of top Fed officials — 12 of 18 — anticipate one more rate hike this year."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1346,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1346",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC unanimously raises target range to 3.75% to 4.00%",
      "summary": "The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote had no dissents.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/16/fed-rates-warsh-trump",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise its target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.75% and 4%."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 973,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n973",
      "date": "2026-09-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price an 85 percent chance of a September rate increase",
      "summary": "Investors priced an 85 percent probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting ending the following Wednesday. Axios reported that CME's FedWatch estimate was 72 percent before that day's inflation data.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "cme-group"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/the-feds-big-inflation-test",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-11",
          "quote": "Investors now see an 85% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's meeting that concludes next Wednesday — up from 72% before today's inflation data, according to CME's FedWatch tool."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 969,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n969",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price a roughly 70 percent chance of a September rate hike",
      "summary": "Traders priced a roughly 70 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62 percent before the producer price data, according to LSEG interest rate probabilities.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group",
        "LSEG"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "cme-group",
        "lseg"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/news/treasuries-us-yields-climb-as-inflation-amps-up-rate-hike-bets-oil-soars",
          "outlet": "Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights",
          "published": "2026-09-10",
          "quote": "After the data, traders were betting on a roughly 70% chance the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62% earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probabilities data."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 430,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n430",
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "August payrolls jump 162,000; traders put 60 percent odds on a hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting",
      "summary": "Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the strongest month since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent; bars and restaurants led and information jobs fell, possibly on AI investment. Short-dated Treasury yields rose and CME FedWatch showed about 60 percent odds of a quarter-point increase at the first meeting with new projections under Warsh, pending the August CPI and PPI reports the following week.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "bureau-of-labor-statistics",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "kevin-warsh"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/jobs-report-august-2026.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-09-04",
          "quote": "Traders were still pricing in about 60% odds of a quarter percentage point increase at the central bank's policy meeting Sept. 15-16, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 820,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n820",
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Christopher Waller ties September vote to August inflation data",
      "summary": "Governor Christopher J. Waller said his September vote would depend principally on the August inflation data. He said continued inflation progress would incline him to support holding rates, while a hot reading could lead him to consider a rate increase.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-03",
          "quote": "But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://apnews.com/article/5506d6b43cc2e3d4144f622f8cc29e43",
          "outlet": "Associated Press",
          "published": "2026-09-03",
          "quote": "The government will release August inflation figures Sept. 11, and if that report shows inflation continues to cool, then Waller said he 'would be inclined' to keep the Fed's benchmark interest rate unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 819,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n819",
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Michael Barr says insufficient inflation progress could require a rate hike",
      "summary": "Governor Michael S. Barr said he would favor raising interest rates if inflation did not appear to be moderating sufficiently. He said that progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective would support taking more time to assess the policy stance at the September meeting.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-01",
          "quote": "However, if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/feds-barr-open-rate-hike-130644777.html",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-01",
          "quote": "Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that if inflation does not cool quickly, it will be time for the U.S. central bank to increase interest rates."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 427,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n427",
      "date": "2026-07-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Fifth straight hold; three regional presidents dissent in favour of a rate increase",
      "summary": "The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferring a quarter-point increase, the first dissents for a hike since 2019 and a sign the debate under Warsh had flipped from when to cut to whether to tighten. Inflation remained elevated relative to target and core PCE was running near 3.3 percent.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Beth Hammack",
        "Neel Kashkari",
        "Lorie Logan"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "beth-hammack",
        "neel-kashkari",
        "lorie-logan"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-29",
          "quote": "Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 818,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n818",
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Reserve announces five monetary-policy task forces",
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of five task forces on monetary-policy practice. The task forces will examine communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, with findings intended for the Federal Open Market Committee.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260709a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-09",
          "quote": "The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 449,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n449",
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "June FOMC minutes disclose Warsh task-force plans",
      "summary": "The June FOMC minutes said Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces. The task forces were to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-08",
          "quote": "The Chairman described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 425,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n425",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Warsh's first meeting: a unanimous hold and a rewritten, shorter statement",
      "summary": "The committee held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote, its first unanimous decision since June 2025, and issued a shorter statement in a new format that leads with the decision and reaffirms a policy of ample reserves. It described growth as solid despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, productivity and capital investment as strong, and inflation as elevated relative to target.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "kevin-warsh"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-06-17",
          "quote": "The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-06-17",
          "quote": "Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 422,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n422",
      "date": "2026-04-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Four dissents at Powell's last full meeting as chair: one for a cut, three against the easing bias",
      "summary": "The FOMC held for a third meeting, describing inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices. Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported holding but objected to the statement's easing bias, the widest split under Powell. The Senate Banking Committee had advanced Warsh's nomination on a party-line vote the same day.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Beth Hammack",
        "Neel Kashkari",
        "Lorie Logan"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran",
        "beth-hammack",
        "neel-kashkari",
        "lorie-logan"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-04-29",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 421,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n421",
      "date": "2026-03-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as Middle East developments cloud the outlook; Miran the lone dissent",
      "summary": "With oil prices rising on the conflict in the Middle East, the committee held for a second meeting and added that the implications for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Miran dissented alone for a quarter-point cut. Trump had formally sent Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-03-18",
          "quote": "The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 419,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n419",
      "date": "2026-01-28",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "First hold of 2026 at 3.5 to 3.75 percent; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut",
      "summary": "The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Christopher Waller"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran",
        "christopher-waller"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-01-28",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 418,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n418",
      "date": "2025-12-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Third cut of the year to 3.5 to 3.75 percent, over three dissents",
      "summary": "The FOMC delivered a third consecutive quarter-point cut, taking the range 75 basis points below its September level. Miran dissented for a larger cut while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold, the most dissents at a meeting since 2019. The projections showed only one cut in 2026, and this was the last change in the target range for at least the following nine months.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Austan Goolsbee",
        "Jeffrey Schmid"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran",
        "austan-goolsbee",
        "jeffrey-schmid"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-12-10",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 417,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n417",
      "date": "2025-10-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Second cut to 3.75 to 4 percent; balance-sheet runoff to end December 1; dissents in both directions",
      "summary": "With the government shut down and most official data suspended, the committee cut again and announced it would stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1. Miran again wanted a half point while Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid wanted no change. Powell said a December cut was far from a foregone conclusion.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Jeffrey Schmid"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran",
        "jeffrey-schmid"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-10-29",
          "quote": "The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 416,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n416",
      "date": "2025-09-17",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "First cut of 2025: a quarter point to 4 to 4.25 percent, citing downside risks to employment",
      "summary": "The FOMC resumed easing after nine months, saying downside risks to employment had risen, and the projections showed two more cuts in 2025. Miran dissented on his first day in favour of a half-point cut; Bowman and Waller, who had dissented in July, voted with the majority. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.26 percent that week, the lowest in almost a year.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "jerome-powell",
        "stephen-miran"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-09-17",
          "quote": "In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 412,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n412",
      "date": "2025-07-30",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Fifth straight hold at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with two governors dissenting for a cut",
      "summary": "Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point cut, the first time two governors had dissented together since 1993, as President Trump escalated demands for lower rates and named Powell's replacement a running theme. The statement said growth had moderated, the labour market remained solid and inflation was somewhat elevated. Trump had toured the Fed's renovation site the week before.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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        "Michelle Bowman",
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        "Jerome Powell"
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        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250730a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-07-30",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
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      "id": 434,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n434",
      "date": "2025-05-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on May 7, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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          "published": "2025-05-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
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      "id": 433,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n433",
      "date": "2025-03-19",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC reduces the monthly Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion",
      "summary": "Beginning in April, the FOMC reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Federal Reserve published the statement on March 19, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htm",
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          "published": "2025-03-19",
          "quote": "Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion."
        }
      ]
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      "id": 432,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n432",
      "date": "2025-01-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on January 29, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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          "published": "2025-01-29",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
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    {
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      "id": 411,
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      "date": "2024-12-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Third cut of 2024 takes the range to 4.25 to 4.5 percent; projections pencil in only two cuts for 2025",
      "summary": "The FOMC cut by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting, but the new projections showed just two cuts in 2025 instead of four and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented for no change. Markets fell sharply and the ten-year yield rose; the range would then stay unchanged for nine months as tariffs clouded the inflation outlook.",
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          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2024-12-18",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
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    {
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      "id": 431,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n431",
      "date": "2024-11-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC lowers the federal-funds target range to 4.5 to 4.75 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on November 7, 2024.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2024-11-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent."
        }
      ]
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      "id": 410,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n410",
      "date": "2024-09-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "The Fed starts cutting with a half-point move to 4.75 to 5 percent",
      "summary": "After holding at 5.25 to 5.5 percent for fourteen months, the FOMC opened its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut, saying it had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent while job gains had slowed. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favour of a quarter point, the first dissent by a governor since 2005. Mortgage rates had already fallen to about 6.1 percent in anticipation.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Michelle Bowman"
      ],
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2024-09-18",
          "quote": "In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
        }
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