Tristan Abbey
Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Role in each timeline
- Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil
Said full restoration of Strait of Hormuz flows would take months and identified uncertainties around resumed flows and restored Middle East output.
Tristan Abbey across every timeline
Every dated entry that names Tristan Abbey, from all 1 timeline, newest first.
- Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon Report
The October outlook recorded the worst month of the whole episode for prices. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, and EIA raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $105 — $14 above the previous month's — citing falling global inventories and tight diesel markets. US retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September and diesel $6.29. Shut-ins were expected to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 as facilitated transits, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers expanded. The outlook's own indicator table put the 2026 Brent average at $96 a barrel and 2027 at $84.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - The world is burning a million barrels a day less, and that is what is capping the price Report
EIA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast. High prices, reduced availability and government measures were curbing consumption, particularly in Asia, leaving the world using a million fewer barrels a day than the year before. The agency's point was uncomfortable — demand destruction, not restored supply, was holding Brent down. Abbey warned that any return to pre-conflict levels would have to reckon with a market that had already partly rearranged itself. The 2026 Brent average stayed at $95 a barrel, unchanged from May.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - EIA starts publishing chokepoint flows, because the closure showed nobody had the numbers Announcement
Alongside the May outlook, EIA announced a new quarterly energy security dataset covering global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for both petroleum and LNG, with the first release the following day. Abbey named the two unknowns the dataset was meant to narrow — when oil flows resume through the strait, and how fast Middle Eastern producers restore output. The outlook's indicator table held the 2026 Brent average at $95 a barrel.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil - EIA has to model something it has never modelled: a closed Strait of Hormuz, and then a reopening Report
The April outlook was built on an assumption about how long the closure would last, because there was no precedent for either end of it. Administrator Tristan Abbey said full restoration of flows would take months and that fuel prices would keep rising until the variables resolved. The forecast for the 2026 Brent average jumped to $96 a barrel from $79 a month earlier, and retail gasoline to $3.70 a gallon.
on Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil