Why is Nvidia excluding China data-center compute revenue from its outlook?
Nvidia is excluding China data-center compute revenue because U.S. approvals have not translated into dependable, scalable sales. The United States granted H20 licenses, but Nvidia recorded no H20 sales to China in that quarter and assumed no China H20 shipments in its following-quarter outlook. It later granted conditional H200 licenses, and Nvidia reported Chinese H200 customers, orders, and limited initial shipments. But Chinese authorities raised H20 security concerns, discouraged its use in government and security-related work, ordered some customers not to buy another Nvidia product, and customs agents were told H200 chips may not enter China while technology companies were instructed not to buy them unless necessary. Nvidia later said Beijing had restricted even licensed H200 sales. With China Hopper shipments below 1 percent of data-center revenue and a $0.4 billion H200 inventory charge, Nvidia has a documented basis not to count China compute revenue in its outlook.
Trace the chain
- 2CAC summons NvidiaRegulatory
China's cyberspace regulator summons Nvidia over alleged H20 backdoor risks
The Cyberspace Administration of China said it had interviewed Nvidia and asked it to explain security risks from backdoor vulnerabilities in H20 chips sold to China and to submit supporting material. Nvidia said its chips have no backdoors that would allow remote access or control.
The Register ·
In order to maintain the network security and data security of Chinese users, the State Internet Information Office interviewed Nvidia on July 31, 2025, and asked Nvidia to explain the security risks of the backdoor…
Why it matters here. The regulator's backdoor-risk summons put an official objection on the record in Beijing even as Washington was clearing the first H20 shipments.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 3H20 licenses grantedRegulatory
US grants Nvidia licenses for certain H20 shipments to China
The U.S. government granted Nvidia licenses to ship certain H20 products to certain China-based customers. Nvidia later reported about $60 million in H20 revenue under those licenses.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Nvidia Form 10-K ·
In August 2025, the USG granted licenses that would allow us to ship certain H20 products to certain China-based customers.
Why it matters here. The licences did arrive, and the shipments they allowed came to about US$60 million before Chinese authorities began steering customers away from the chip.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 4Beijing discourages H20Regulatory
Chinese authorities discourage use of H20 in government and security-related work
Chinese authorities sent letters to companies discouraging use of Nvidia's H20 for AI work, particularly by firms involved in government or national security-related projects, days after the U.S. cleared the chip for export again.
The Register ·
Chinese authorities have sent letters to several firms discouraging the use of Nvidia's H20 GPUs for AI applications, particularly by those involved in government or national security-related work.
Why it matters here. The letters discouraging H20 use showed that potential customers faced domestic limits, and Chinese restrictions subsequently extended to another Nvidia product.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
-
- 5No H20 salesFinancial
No H20 sales to China in the quarter; Nvidia assumes none in its outlook
Second-quarter fiscal 2026 results showed no H20 sales to China-based customers, a US$180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory tied to about US$650 million of sales to a customer outside China, and a third-quarter outlook that assumed no H20 shipments to China.
Nvidia Newsroom ·
There were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter.
Why it matters here. The zero-sales quarter showed that U.S. approval had not yielded China sales, so the next reported Chinese procurement restriction bears on why the route remained unreliable.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 6RTX Pro 6000D bannedRegulatory
Beijing orders Alibaba, ByteDance and others not to buy Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D
The Financial Times reported, and The Register relayed, that the Cyberspace Administration of China had ordered Alibaba, ByteDance and other companies not to order Nvidia's China-specific RTX Pro 6000D Blackwell GPU.
The Register ·
China's Cyberspace Administration ordered Alibaba, ByteDance, and unnamed others not to order Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D Blackwell GPUs, unnamed sources familiar with the matter told the Financial Times this week.
Why it matters here. The reported order against RTX Pro 6000D purchases demonstrated broader Chinese resistance to Nvidia procurement as U.S. policy later opened a conditional H200 channel.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
China restrictions
- 9China bars H200 entryRegulatory
Chinese customs agents are told H200 chips may not enter the country
Reuters reported that Chinese customs authorities had told agents the H200 was not permitted to enter China, and that officials had summoned domestic technology companies on January 13 and instructed them not to buy the chip unless necessary. One person said the wording was severe enough to amount to a ban for now. The directive came days after the Trump administration formally approved H200 exports to China with conditions, and the authorities gave no reasons and no indication whether it was formal or temporary.
Reuters, via Rappler ·
Chinese customs authorities told customs agents this week that Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips are not permitted to enter China, according to three people briefed on the matter. Chinese government officials…
Why it matters here. The customs instruction that H200 may not enter China meant that a U.S. license alone would not assure access to the Chinese market.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 13Under 1% of revenueFinancial
Nvidia reports China Hopper shipments were under 1% of data center revenue
Nvidia reported that Data Center Hopper shipments to China were less than 1% of Data Center revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. The quarter ended July 26, 2026.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Nvidia Form 10-Q ·
Shipments of Data Center Hopper products to China during the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 were less than 1% of Data Center revenue.
Why it matters here. China Hopper shipments were less than 1 percent of Data Center revenue, and Nvidia later reported diminished H200 demand, a $0.4 billion inventory charge, and Chinese restrictions on licensed H200 sales.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 14$0.4 billion write-downFinancial
Nvidia writes down US$0.4 billion of H200 inventory; says Beijing restricted licensed sales
In its second-quarter fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q, Nvidia said it took a US$0.4 billion charge in the first half of the year for excess H200 inventory and purchase obligations as demand diminished, that the Chinese government had restricted sales of H200 units it was licensed to ship, and that it had made only a fraction of the allowed shipments.
Nvidia Form 10-Q ·
During the first half of fiscal year 2027, we incurred a $0.4 billion charge associated with H200 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H200 products diminished.
Why it matters here. Nvidia then reported a $0.4 billion H200 inventory charge and said Beijing had restricted licensed sales, directly supporting the decision not to rely on China revenue.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 15China left out of outlookFinancial
Nvidia excludes China data center compute revenue from its outlook
Nvidia said it was not assuming Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook. The company issued the outlook with its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results.
Nvidia Newsroom ·
NVIDIA is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook.
Why it matters here. Nvidia's outlook therefore formally assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, the decision the preceding restrictions, negligible shipments, and H200 charge explain.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
What pushes back
- 1H20 licenses promised
Nvidia says the US has assured it H20 licenses will be granted and sales to China will resume
After Jensen Huang met officials in Washington and travelled to Beijing, Nvidia said the U.S. government had assured it that H20 export licenses would be granted and that it hoped to start deliveries soon. It also announced an RTX Pro GPU aimed at the China market.
Nvidia Blog ·
The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon.
What it pushes against. The U.S. assurance created a potential route back to China sales, but China’s cyberspace regulator later challenged H20 over alleged backdoor risks.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 7H200 allowed, 25% cut
Trump allows H200 sales to approved Chinese customers with a 25 percent cut for the US
The Trump administration reversed course and said Nvidia could sell its H200 to approved commercial customers in China vetted by the Commerce Department, with 25 percent of the revenue going to the U.S. government. Nvidia welcomed the decision.
The Register ·
Offering H200 to approved commercial customers, vetted by the Department of Commerce, strikes a thoughtful balance that is great for America.
What it pushes against. The U.S. H200 decision offered approved Chinese commercial customers a possible supply route, pushing against the conclusion that China revenue would remain unavailable.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 8Case-by-case review
BIS moves H200 and MI325X exports to China to case-by-case review with security conditions
BIS revised its license review policy so that applications to export Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X and similar chips to China are reviewed case by case if the exporter shows no reduction in capacity for U.S. customers, the Chinese buyer has export-compliance screening, and the product passed independent third-party testing in the United States. The rule took effect on publication.
Bureau of Industry and Security ·
BIS will now review export license applications for the Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X, and similar chips on a case-by-case basis provided certain security requirements are met.
What it pushes against. BIS made H200 exports conditional on case-by-case licenses and security requirements, but Chinese customs were then told that H200 chips might not enter China.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 10First H200 license
US grants Nvidia a license for small H200 shipments to China
The U.S. government granted Nvidia a license to ship small amounts of H200 products to specified China-based customers. Nvidia said the license required U.S. inspection before shipment.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Nvidia Form 10-K ·
In February 2026, the USG granted a license that would allow us to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers.
What it pushes against. The February license allowed only small H200 shipments to specified Chinese customers, before Huang later said Nvidia had licenses and purchase orders for many Chinese customers.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 11Orders in hand, says Huang
Huang says Nvidia is licensed for many Chinese H200 customers, has orders, and is restarting production
Speaking to press at GTC 2026, Jensen Huang said Nvidia had been licensed for many customers in China for H200, had received purchase orders from many of them, and was restarting H200 manufacturing.
The Register ·
We've been licensed for many customers in China for H200. We have received purchase orders from many customers and we are in the process of restarting our manufacturing
What it pushes against. Nvidia reported licenses, purchase orders, and restarted H200 production, but a U.S. official later said that only very few H200 chips had shipped to China or Hong Kong.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- 12Limited shipments begin
US official says limited H200 shipments to China have begun
BIS Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler told Congress that H200 chips had been shipped to China or Hong Kong. He said the number of chips shipped to date was very few.
Reuters via Yahoo Finance ·
A top U.S. official told Congress on Tuesday that "very few" Nvidia H200 chips to date have been shipped to China or Hong Kong.
What it pushes against. A U.S. official said only limited H200 shipments had begun, setting up Nvidia's subsequent report that China Hopper volume was negligible.
US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
Changes to this chain
- Proposal #165 accepted (publish:amd-china-export-controls): insert after 4: [cause] No H20 sales -> nvidia-china-export-controls#55: The zero-sales quarter showed that U.S. approval had not yielded China sales, so the next reported Chinese procurement restriction bears on why the route remained unreliable.; answer: Nvidia is excluding China data-center compute revenue because U.S. approvals have not translated into dependable, scalable sales. The United States granted H20 licenses, but Nvidia recorded no H20 sales to China in that quarter and assumed no China H20 shipments in its following-quarter outlook. It later granted conditional H200 licenses, and Nvidia reported Chinese H200 customers, orders, and limited initial shipments. But Chinese authorities raised H20 security concerns, discouraged its use in government and security-related work, ordered some customers not to buy another Nvidia product, and customs agents were told H200 chips may not enter China while technology companies were instructed not to buy them unless necessary. Nvidia later said Beijing had restricted even licensed H200 sales. With China Hopper shipments below 1 percent of data-center revenue and a $0.4 billion H200 inventory charge, Nvidia has a documented basis not to count China compute revenue in its outlook.
- Proposal #155 accepted (verify:v8): why of step 14 -> Nvidia's outlook therefore formally assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, the decision the preceding restrictions, negligible shipments, and H200 charge explain.
- Proposal #113 accepted (verify:v7): why of step 7 -> BIS made H200 exports conditional on case-by-case licenses and security requirements, but Chinese customs were then told that H200 chips might not enter China.; why of step 14 -> Nvidia's guidance explicitly assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, formalizing the exclusion at issue.
- Proposal #101 accepted (publish:nvidia-datacenter-gpu-roadmap): insert after 7: [cause] China bars H200 entry -> nvidia-china-export-controls#1342: The customs instruction that H200 may not enter China meant that a U.S. license alone would not assure access to the Chinese market.; answer: Nvidia is excluding China data-center compute revenue because U.S. approvals have not translated into dependable, scalable sales. The United States granted H20 licenses and then conditional H200 licenses, and Nvidia reported Chinese H200 customers, orders, and limited initial shipments. But Chinese authorities raised H20 security concerns, discouraged its use in government and security-related work, ordered some customers not to buy another Nvidia product, and customs agents were told H200 chips may not enter China while technology companies were instructed not to buy them unless necessary. Nvidia later said Beijing had restricted even licensed H200 sales. With China Hopper shipments below 1 percent of data-center revenue and a $0.4 billion H200 inventory charge, Nvidia has a documented basis not to count China compute revenue in its outlook.
- Proposal #56 rejected (verify:v5)
- Proposal #57 rejected (verify:v6)
- Added nvidia-china-export-controls#61 as step 3: the answer credited the US with granting H20 licences while no step recorded the grant, and the entry also carries the roughly $60 million it produced.
- Step 12 why edited by the editor: A final step should conclude, not restate
- Proposal #55 rejected (verify:v4)
- Step 12 why edited by the editor: A final step should conclude, not restate
- Proposal #51 rejected (verify:v3)
- Step 12 why edited by the editor: A final step should conclude, not restate
- Proposal #17 accepted (verify:v1): why of step 1 -> The U.S. assurance created a potential route back to China sales, but China’s cyberspace regulator later challenged H20 over alleged backdoor risks.; why of step 6 -> BIS made H200 exports conditional on case-by-case licenses and security requirements, and the U.S. later granted Nvidia a license for only small shipments to specified Chinese customers.; why of step 7 -> The February license allowed only small H200 shipments to specified Chinese customers, before Huang later said Nvidia had licenses and purchase orders for many Chinese customers.; why of step 8 -> Nvidia reported licenses, purchase orders, and restarted H200 production, but a U.S. official later said that only very few H200 chips had shipped to China or Hong Kong.; why of step 10 -> China Hopper shipments were less than 1 percent of Data Center revenue, and Nvidia later reported diminished H200 demand, a $0.4 billion inventory charge, and Chinese restrictions on licensed H200 sales.; why of step 12 -> Nvidia explicitly said it was not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook.
- Step labels rewritten by the editor
Timelines in this chain
- US Export Controls on Nvidia AI Chips to China: A100 to H20 to H200
- US Export Controls on AMD's AI Chips in China: From the MI250 License to MI308 and MI325X
- AMD Instinct: From MI300X to Helios and the Gigawatt Deals
- Nvidia Data Center GPUs: Hopper, Blackwell and Vera Rubin
A chain is written by the editor from entries already published on the timelines above, each of which was read against its source before publication. The chain changes when those entries do. Data and terms.