{
  "data_version": "1",
  "schema": "https://whatledto.com/data",
  "id": "federal-reserve",
  "name": "Federal Reserve",
  "kind": "regulator",
  "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/federal-reserve",
  "description": "The U.S. central bank. Its Board of Governors sets bank rules and, with the FOMC, the federal funds rate.",
  "same_as": [
    "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve",
    "https://www.federalreserve.gov/"
  ],
  "timelines": [
    {
      "slug": "mortgage-rates-2025-2026",
      "title": "Mortgage Rates: One Week Below 6 Percent, Then Back Above 7",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/mortgage-rates-2025-2026",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/mortgage-rates-2025-2026.json",
      "role": "Its rate outlook and balance-sheet role are relevant to bond and mortgage-rate conditions, although the timeline focuses on the resulting mortgage-rate moves.",
      "entries": 1,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-21T11:43:22.659430+00:00"
    },
    {
      "slug": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "title": "The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026.json",
      "role": "It published the FOMC statements.",
      "entries": 42,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-16T02:10:22.232634+00:00"
    },
    {
      "slug": "social-security-2027-cola",
      "title": "Social Security's Next Raise: From the 2.5% COLA to the 2027 Announcement",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/social-security-2027-cola",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/social-security-2027-cola.json",
      "role": "Provided projections referenced in AARP's COLA forecast.",
      "entries": 0,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-14T14:48:41.575777+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "entries": [
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2161,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2161",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Two-year Treasury yield rises to 4.93 percent",
      "summary": "Reuters reported that the U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.93 percent. CNBC reported that the two-year Treasury yield gained more than 10 basis points to 4.895 percent.",
      "type": "financial",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Treasury market",
        "Consumer Price Index",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-treasury-market",
        "consumer-price-index",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/hot-september-cpi-sends-rate-131846678.html",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "U.S. two-year yields, which are sensitive to the outlook for interest rate moves, rose 14 basis points to 4.93% ."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/us-treasury-yields-cpi-inflation-report.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "The 2-year Treasury — which closely tracks the Fed's interest rate decisions — gained more than 10 basis points to 4.895%."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2160,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2160",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures move to a 43.7 percent chance of an October rate increase",
      "summary": "Odds of a quarter-point increase on 28 October rose to 43.7 percent from 22.1 percent the day before, on CME FedWatch pricing. Futures put a hold at about 49 percent, up from 19 percent before the report, leaving the meeting close to a coin flip between holding and raising.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "CME Group",
        "CME FedWatch",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal-funds futures"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-group",
        "cme-fedwatch",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-funds-futures"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/us-treasury-yields-cpi-inflation-report.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "Odds for an October 28 quarter-point hike in the fed funds rate — currently 3.75% to 4.00% — increased to 43.7% from just 22.1% a day ago, according to futures trading measured by CME's FedWatch tool."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/hot-september-cpi-sends-rate-131846678.html",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing about a 49% chance that the central bank will keep the policy rate in its current 3.75%-4% range at its meeting in two weeks, up from 19% before the report."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2159,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2159",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Register publishes memorandum scheduling Cook hearing",
      "summary": "The Federal Register published a presidential memorandum concerning a committee of inquiry into allegations against Lisa Cook. The memorandum directs the committee to conduct an in-person hearing on November 5, 2026.",
      "type": "legal",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Lisa Cook",
        "Executive Office of the President",
        "White House",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "lisa-cook",
        "executive-office-of-the-president",
        "us-government",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/14/2026-21061/establishment-of-a-committee-of-inquiry-to-investigate-allegations-of-false-statements-by-lisa",
          "outlet": "Executive Office of the President, Federal Register",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "The Committee shall, on November 5, 2026, conduct an in-person hearing to consider the evidence and allegations against Governor Cook."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://kfgo.com/2026/10/13/lawyer-for-feds-cook-denounces-trumps-latest-attempt-to-remove-her/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-10-13",
          "quote": "Earlier this month Trump announced a fresh ‌inquiry into ​Cook and the appointment of a three-person committee to ⁠hold a hearing."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2130,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2130",
      "date": "2026-10-08",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Waller anticipates additional rate increases if data meet expectations",
      "summary": "Christopher J. Waller said he anticipated additional rate increases if economic data continued as expected. He said there was flexibility over when those increases would occur.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2129,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2129",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures price 85 percent odds of a December rate increase",
      "summary": "Federal-funds futures prices implied an 85 percent probability of at least one rate increase by the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. The same prices put the probability of two increases by that meeting at nearly 20 percent.",
      "type": "financial",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "quote": "According to futures market prices for the federal funds rate as of yesterday, traders see an 85 percent chance of at least one hike by the end of the FOMC's December meeting and nearly 20 percent chance of two hikes."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1902,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1902",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September minutes discuss preparation for Treasury-market dysfunction",
      "summary": "The September FOMC minutes disclosed discussion of preparing for possible Treasury-market dysfunction. Participants suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools while limiting its footprint in the Treasury market.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "quote": "“They suggested strengthening the Federal Reserve's strategy, communications, and tools for addressing market dysfunction, should it occur, while limiting the Federal Reserve's footprint in the Treasury market.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1901,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1901",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September minutes show most participants expected another 2026 increase",
      "summary": "Minutes of the September FOMC meeting said most participants expected another increase in the federal-funds target range would likely be appropriate by year-end. The minutes were released on October 7.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "quote": "“With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1896,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1896",
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Schmid says the Fed has work to do on its policy rate",
      "summary": "Jeffrey Schmid said the Federal Reserve remained focused on its short-term policy rate. He said the Fed had work to do on that rate.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Jeffrey Schmid",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "jeffrey-schmid",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-kansas-city",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://globaltradereview.com/news/all/6ac61828ed554471ad17f6c1",
          "outlet": "Global Trade Review",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "quote": "“But I think for us, we focus purely on that short rate, and I think we have some work to do on the short rate.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1790,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1790",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Treasury yields end higher after the September payroll report",
      "summary": "The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.28 percent and the two-year Treasury yield near 4.83 percent. Reuters reported the 10-year yield at 5.281 percent and the two-year yield at 4.827 percent late in the session.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/stocks-climb-after-weak-us-jobs-data-but-bonds-resume-selling-ce785ddbd88ff221",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was last up 4.72 basis points at 5.281%, while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, was up 3.98 bps at 4.827%.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/nasdaq-adds-319-points-as-rate-hike-odds-ebb-stock-market-today",
          "outlet": "Kiplinger",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The 10-year Treasury yield (+4.5 bps, 5.279%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+2.5 bps, 5.628%) followed similar trajectories.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1789,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1789",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures imply a 22.7 percent chance of an October Fed rate increase",
      "summary": "Federal-funds futures pricing implied a 22.7 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that the probability had been 24.4 percent in the prior session and 64.2 percent a week earlier.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "CME Group",
        "CME FedWatch",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-group",
        "cme-fedwatch",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/equities-close-higher-as-softer-jobs-data-quiets-rate-hike-expectations-ce785ddbd88df124",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The weaker-than-anticipated data pulled down expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its meeting at the end of October to 22.7%, according to CME FedWatch, from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/nasdaq-adds-319-points-as-rate-hike-odds-ebb-stock-market-today",
          "outlet": "Kiplinger",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“According to CME FedWatch, price action in the federal funds futures market indicates a 22.7% probability the Fed hikes rate by 25 basis points at the October Fed meeting, down from 64.2% a week ago.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1787,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1787",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump says he wants Warsh to vote as Trump wants on rates",
      "summary": "Donald Trump said he wanted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to vote as Trump wanted on interest rates. The statement followed Warsh's participation in the September rate increase.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/fed-policymakers-lean-against-october-rate-hike",
          "outlet": "The Business Times, reporting Reuters and Bloomberg",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“Asked about his comments later on Thursday, Trump said he wants Warsh to ‘vote the way he wants.’”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1784,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1784",
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jefferson says future policy changes should await further assessment",
      "summary": "Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said future policy adjustments should be based on data trends, the outlook, and the balance of risks. He said he supported September's quarter-point increase and that policymakers may need more time to assess inflation's return to target.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Philip N. Jefferson",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "philip-n-jefferson",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "“As we look ahead, my view is that any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1776,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1776",
      "date": "2026-10",
      "date_precision": "month",
      "title": "Trump says Warsh should have opposed the September rate increase",
      "summary": "Donald Trump said he would probably have voted against the Federal Reserve Board if he were Kevin Warsh. He said Warsh should have voted against the Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates while saying he did not hold Warsh personally responsible.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/trump-says-warsh-should-have-voted-against-feds-rate-hike",
          "outlet": "Bloomberg Law",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "I don’t blame Kevin Warsh. I probably would have voted against the board if I were him,"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://qz.com/trump-warsh-fed-rate-hike-vote-100126",
          "outlet": "Quartz",
          "published": "2026-10-01",
          "quote": "President Donald Trump said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh should have voted against the central bank's recent decision to raise interest rates, but added that he does not hold Warsh personally responsible for the move."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1588,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1588",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Goolsbee warns inflation above target is playing with fire",
      "summary": "Austan Goolsbee said inflation remaining above target for five and a half years was \"playing with fire.\" He said persistent supply shocks could require a policy response.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Austan Goolsbee",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "austan-goolsbee",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-chicago",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-goolsbee-says-prolonged-inflation-above-target-is-playing-with-fire-4858530",
          "outlet": "Investing.com",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“The fact we have been 5-1/2 years above inflation target is playing with fire,” Goolsbee said Tuesday."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/09/29/equities-dip-as-bond-yields-hold-near-multi-decade-highs/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“Goolsbee saying that allowing inflation to stay above the Fed’s target for 5-1/2 years is ‘playing with fire.’”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1587,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1587",
      "date": "2026-09-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Barr says further policy adjustments are likely",
      "summary": "Michael S. Barr said his base case was that further policy adjustments would likely be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said inflation risks had increased while labor-market risks had receded.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260929a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/09/29/equities-dip-as-bond-yields-hold-near-multi-decade-highs/",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-29",
          "quote": "“While the Fed’s Williams expressed patience for more rate hikes, other policymakers took a more hawkish stance, with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr saying more hikes are likely needed.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1584,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1584",
      "date": "2026-09-28",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Cook sees continued inflation pressure in coming months",
      "summary": "Lisa D. Cook said AI-related demand, higher oil prices, and Middle East supply disruptions would continue to pressure inflation in coming months. She said future rate adjustments would depend on the economy's response to the September increase and incoming inflation and labor-market data.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Lisa Cook",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "lisa-cook",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260928a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-28",
          "quote": "“Furthermore, in coming months I expect to see continued pressure on inflation from the AI buildout, as discussed today, and from the pass-through of higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions associated with the conflict in the Middle East.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1492,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1492",
      "date": "2026-09-23",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Michael S. Barr says further policy adjustments may be needed",
      "summary": "Michael S. Barr said further monetary-policy adjustments would probably be needed to return inflation to target in a timely fashion. He said strong growth, a solid labor market, and inflation above target had changed the balance of risks and led him to support the September increase.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260923a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-23",
          "quote": "“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1490,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1490",
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Susan Collins cites insufficient inflation progress after rate increase",
      "summary": "Susan Collins said persistent inflation and renewed Middle East conflict were reasons she supported the September rate increase. She penciled in another rate increase later in 2026 and expected rates to remain unchanged in 2027.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Susan Collins",
        "Federal Reserve Bank of Boston",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "susan-collins",
        "federal-reserve-bank-of-boston",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://apnews.com/article/inflation-goolsbee-federal-reserve-rates-5acf1f7e4f38ac77329fa0b9aaddd30f",
          "outlet": "AP News",
          "published": "2026-09-21",
          "quote": "“I did not see the inflation progress I was hoping to see.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1350,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1350",
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Reserve Board raises interest on reserve balances to 3.90%",
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve Board unanimously raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90%. The change took effect on September 17, 2026.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective September 17, 2026."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1349,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1349",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump says he told Warsh to vote with the Board",
      "summary": "Donald Trump said he told Kevin Warsh to vote with the Federal Reserve Board because the outcome would not change. Axios reported Trump's statement on September 17.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/17/why-the-federal-reserve-hiked-rates-this-week",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-17",
          "quote": "I talked to Kevin. I said, 'You might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter,'"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1348,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1348",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Warsh says underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved",
      "summary": "Kevin Warsh said summer inflation readings did not show that underlying trends had meaningfully improved. Axios reported the statement on September 16.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/16/fed-rates-warsh-trump",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1347,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1347",
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "September projections put the funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of 2026, implying one more increase",
      "summary": "In the projections issued with the decision, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, against 3.8 and 3.6 percent in the June round, and raised the median core PCE inflation projection for 2026 to 3.4 percent. With the target range just moved to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the 2026 median implies one further increase this year; Axios counted 12 of 18 officials projecting it.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2029 and over the longer run."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/16/fed-rates-warsh-trump",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-16",
          "quote": "The announcement was accompanied by new projections that show a healthy majority of top Fed officials — 12 of 18 — anticipate one more rate hike this year."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 973,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n973",
      "date": "2026-09-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price an 85 percent chance of a September rate increase",
      "summary": "Investors priced an 85 percent probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting ending the following Wednesday. Axios reported that CME's FedWatch estimate was 72 percent before that day's inflation data.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "cme-group"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/the-feds-big-inflation-test",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-11",
          "quote": "Investors now see an 85% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's meeting that concludes next Wednesday — up from 72% before today's inflation data, according to CME's FedWatch tool."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 970,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n970",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Two-year Treasury yield rises to 4.56 percent",
      "summary": "The two-year Treasury note yield rose 13.33 basis points to 4.56 percent. Reuters reported that this was its highest level since July 2024.",
      "type": "financial",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "us-department-of-the-treasury",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/news/treasuries-us-yields-climb-as-inflation-amps-up-rate-hike-bets-oil-soars",
          "outlet": "Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights",
          "published": "2026-09-10",
          "quote": "The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 13.33 basis points to 4.56%, touching its highest point since July 2024."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026",
          "outlet": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
          "published": null,
          "quote": "Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates: These rates are commonly referred to as \"Constant Maturity Treasury\" rates, or CMTs."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 969,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n969",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price a roughly 70 percent chance of a September rate hike",
      "summary": "Traders priced a roughly 70 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62 percent before the producer price data, according to LSEG interest rate probabilities.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group",
        "LSEG"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "cme-group",
        "lseg"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/news/treasuries-us-yields-climb-as-inflation-amps-up-rate-hike-bets-oil-soars",
          "outlet": "Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights",
          "published": "2026-09-10",
          "quote": "After the data, traders were betting on a roughly 70% chance the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62% earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probabilities data."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 820,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n820",
      "date": "2026-09-03",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Christopher Waller ties September vote to August inflation data",
      "summary": "Governor Christopher J. Waller said his September vote would depend principally on the August inflation data. He said continued inflation progress would incline him to support holding rates, while a hot reading could lead him to consider a rate increase.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Christopher J. Waller",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "christopher-j-waller",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-03",
          "quote": "But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://apnews.com/article/5506d6b43cc2e3d4144f622f8cc29e43",
          "outlet": "Associated Press",
          "published": "2026-09-03",
          "quote": "The government will release August inflation figures Sept. 11, and if that report shows inflation continues to cool, then Waller said he 'would be inclined' to keep the Fed's benchmark interest rate unchanged."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 819,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n819",
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Michael Barr says insufficient inflation progress could require a rate hike",
      "summary": "Governor Michael S. Barr said he would favor raising interest rates if inflation did not appear to be moderating sufficiently. He said that progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective would support taking more time to assess the policy stance at the September meeting.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Michael S. Barr",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "michael-s-barr",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/barr20260901a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-09-01",
          "quote": "However, if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/feds-barr-open-rate-hike-130644777.html",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-09-01",
          "quote": "Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that if inflation does not cool quickly, it will be time for the U.S. central bank to increase interest rates."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "mortgage-rates-2025-2026",
      "id": 1316,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/mortgage-rates-2025-2026#n1316",
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Daily rates hit a 2026 high of 6.87% after Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech",
      "summary": "Mortgage News Daily's daily average for the 30-year fixed rate reached 6.87 percent, the highest of 2026, after Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to say inflation progress over the past two years had been modest and that recent data did not suggest underlying trends had meaningfully improved. Markets read it as a signal that a rate increase was possible later in the year.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Mortgage News Daily"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve",
        "mortgage-news-daily"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.homes.com/news/daily-mortgage-rate-averages-climb-to-2026-high-after-fed-chair-speech/443965879/",
          "outlet": "Homes.com",
          "published": "2026-08-31",
          "quote": "The average daily 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate rose to 6.87% on Monday, its highest level of 2026, according to Mortgage News Daily."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 429,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n429",
      "date": "2026-08-28",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jackson Hole: Warsh says inflation is too high and the Fed may have work to do",
      "summary": "In his first Jackson Hole keynote, on his hundredth day as chair, Warsh declined to offer forward guidance or a reaction function, said this summer's better inflation readings did not show underlying trends had meaningfully improved, and set his standard as confidence that inflation is moving to target clearly and at sufficient speed. He also argued AI investment could lift growth substantially. Two-year yields jumped and futures moved to better than even odds of a September hike.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-08-28",
          "quote": "Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 818,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n818",
      "date": "2026-07-09",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Reserve announces five monetary-policy task forces",
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve announced the leadership and objectives of five task forces on monetary-policy practice. The task forces will examine communications, balance-sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, with findings intended for the Federal Open Market Committee.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260709a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-09",
          "quote": "The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 449,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n449",
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "June FOMC minutes disclose Warsh task-force plans",
      "summary": "The June FOMC minutes said Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces. The task forces were to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-08",
          "quote": "The Chairman described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 424,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n424",
      "date": "2026-05-22",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Warsh sworn in as chair at the White House; the FOMC elects him unanimously",
      "summary": "Justice Clarence Thomas administered the oath in the East Room with Trump present, saying he wanted Warsh to be totally independent. The Fed noted that Trump had formally nominated Warsh on March 4, the Senate had confirmed him as a governor on May 12 and as chair on May 13, and that his term as chair runs to May 21, 2030, with a board term to January 31, 2040. The same day the FOMC unanimously chose him as its chairman.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve",
        "donald-trump"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-05-22",
          "quote": "President Donald J. Trump nominated Mr. Warsh on March 4, 2026. He was confirmed by the United States Senate to serve as a member of the Board on May 12, and as chairman of the Board on May 13. His term as chairman ends on May 21, 2030, and his term as a member of the Board ends on January 31, 2040."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 446,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n446",
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Reserve names Powell chair pro tempore",
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve Board named Jerome H. Powell chair pro tempore. Powell was to serve in that role until Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chair.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "jerome-powell",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-05-15",
          "quote": "Powell will serve as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in as the new chair."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 442,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n442",
      "date": "2026-03-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Judge Boasberg grants the Fed Board's motion to quash subpoenas",
      "summary": "Chief Judge James E. Boasberg granted the Federal Reserve Board's motion to quash Justice Department subpoenas. The ruling concerned the Powell investigation.",
      "type": "legal",
      "entities": [
        "James E. Boasberg",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "U.S. Department of Justice",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "james-e-boasberg",
        "jerome-powell",
        "federal-reserve",
        "us-department-of-justice",
        "donald-trump"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://cases.justia.com/federal/district-courts/district-of-columbia/dcdce/1%3A2026mc00012/288962/23/0.pdf",
          "outlet": "U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia",
          "published": "2026-03-11",
          "quote": "It will therefore grant the Board's Motion to Quash."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 420,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n420",
      "date": "2026-01-30",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump names Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed chair",
      "summary": "Ending a search that had run since the summer of 2025 and considered nearly a dozen names, including governors Waller and Bowman, Trump announced on Truth Social that former governor Kevin Warsh, 55, would be his nominee for chair when Powell's term ended in May. Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 who had called for regime change at the central bank, would take the board seat held by Miran, whose term expired the next day. Gold and silver fell on the pick as markets read it as less of a threat to independence.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "donald-trump",
        "kevin-warsh",
        "jerome-powell",
        "federal-reserve"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/trump-nominates-kevin-warsh-for-federal-reserve-chair-to-succeed-jerome-powell.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-01-30",
          "quote": "President Donald Trump on Friday named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, ending a prolonged odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/01/wide-acclaim-for-president-trumps-nomination-of-kevin-warsh-as-fed-chair/",
          "outlet": "The White House",
          "published": "2026-01-30",
          "quote": "Today, President Donald J. Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 436,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n436",
      "date": "2026-01-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Powell calls Justice Department subpoenas pretexts",
      "summary": "Jerome H. Powell said the Justice Department subpoenas were pretexts. The statement concerned subpoenas served on the Federal Reserve Board.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "U.S. Department of Justice",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "jerome-powell",
        "federal-reserve",
        "us-department-of-justice",
        "donald-trump"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20260111a.pdf",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-01-11",
          "quote": "Those are pretexts."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 415,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n415",
      "date": "2025-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Stephen Miran sworn in as governor the day before the meeting, on leave from the White House",
      "summary": "The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers took the oath as a Fed governor one day after a party-line Senate confirmation and two weeks after his nomination, filling Adriana Kugler's seat with a term ending January 31, 2026. He took unpaid leave from the White House rather than resigning, which drew criticism about the Fed's independence, and voted at the next day's meeting.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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        "Federal Reserve",
        "Donald Trump"
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      "parties": [
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        "federal-reserve",
        "donald-trump"
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20250916a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-09-16",
          "quote": "President Trump nominated Dr. Miran on September 2, 2025, and he was confirmed by the United States Senate on September 15, 2025. His term as a member of the Board ends on January 31, 2026."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 414,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n414",
      "date": "2025-08-25",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump says he is firing Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations; Cook refuses to go",
      "summary": "In a letter posted on Truth Social the president said he was removing Cook for cause, effective immediately, citing FHFA director Bill Pulte's allegation that she had claimed two primary residences in 2021. No president had ever removed a Fed governor. Cook said no cause existed and she would not resign, hired Abbe Lowell and sued; a district court and the D.C. Circuit let her keep her seat while the case went to the Supreme Court.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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        "Lisa Cook",
        "Bill Pulte",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
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          "outlet": "PBS News (AP)",
          "published": "2025-08-25",
          "quote": "Trump said in a letter posted on his Truth Social platform that he is removing Cook effective immediately because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 413,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n413",
      "date": "2025-08-22",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jackson Hole: Powell says the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy",
      "summary": "In his final Jackson Hole speech as chair Powell said the labour market was in a curious kind of balance with both supply and demand for workers slowing, that tariff effects on prices were now visible, and that with policy restrictive the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks might warrant a change in stance. The Fed also released its revised framework, dropping the 2020 average inflation targeting language. Markets took it as a signal for a September cut.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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        "Federal Reserve"
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        "federal-reserve"
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-08-22",
          "quote": "Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 434,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n434",
      "date": "2025-05-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on May 7, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
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          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-05-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 433,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n433",
      "date": "2025-03-19",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC reduces the monthly Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion",
      "summary": "Beginning in April, the FOMC reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Federal Reserve published the statement on March 19, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-03-19",
          "quote": "Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 432,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n432",
      "date": "2025-01-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on January 29, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "parties": [
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250129a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-01-29",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 431,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n431",
      "date": "2024-11-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC lowers the federal-funds target range to 4.5 to 4.75 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on November 7, 2024.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
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          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2024-11-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent."
        }
      ]
    }
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