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  "id": "cme-group",
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    {
      "slug": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "title": "The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026.json",
      "role": "Its FedWatch tool is cited for futures-implied probabilities of FOMC policy moves.",
      "entries": 4,
      "updated_at": "2026-10-16T02:10:22.232634+00:00"
    },
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      "slug": "us-beef-prices",
      "title": "Record Beef Prices: The Smallest Herd Since 1951, the Packer Probe and the Import Fix",
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      "role": "Exchange associated with the live- and feeder-cattle futures discussed in market reporting.",
      "entries": 1,
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      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 2160,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2160",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures move to a 43.7 percent chance of an October rate increase",
      "summary": "Odds of a quarter-point increase on 28 October rose to 43.7 percent from 22.1 percent the day before, on CME FedWatch pricing. Futures put a hold at about 49 percent, up from 19 percent before the report, leaving the meeting close to a coin flip between holding and raising.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
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        "CME FedWatch",
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        "Federal-funds futures"
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        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/us-treasury-yields-cpi-inflation-report.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "Odds for an October 28 quarter-point hike in the fed funds rate — currently 3.75% to 4.00% — increased to 43.7% from just 22.1% a day ago, according to futures trading measured by CME's FedWatch tool."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/hot-september-cpi-sends-rate-131846678.html",
          "outlet": "Reuters",
          "published": "2026-10-14",
          "quote": "Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing about a 49% chance that the central bank will keep the policy rate in its current 3.75%-4% range at its meeting in two weeks, up from 19% before the report."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 1789,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1789",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Futures imply a 22.7 percent chance of an October Fed rate increase",
      "summary": "Federal-funds futures pricing implied a 22.7 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting. Reuters reported that the probability had been 24.4 percent in the prior session and 64.2 percent a week earlier.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "CME Group",
        "CME FedWatch",
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-group",
        "cme-fedwatch",
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee"
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      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/equities-close-higher-as-softer-jobs-data-quiets-rate-hike-expectations-ce785ddbd88df124",
          "outlet": "Reuters via MarketScreener",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“The weaker-than-anticipated data pulled down expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its meeting at the end of October to 22.7%, according to CME FedWatch, from 24.4% in the prior session and 64.2% a week earlier.”"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/nasdaq-adds-319-points-as-rate-hike-odds-ebb-stock-market-today",
          "outlet": "Kiplinger",
          "published": "2026-10-02",
          "quote": "“According to CME FedWatch, price action in the federal funds futures market indicates a 22.7% probability the Fed hikes rate by 25 basis points at the October Fed meeting, down from 64.2% a week ago.”"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 973,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n973",
      "date": "2026-09-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price an 85 percent chance of a September rate increase",
      "summary": "Investors priced an 85 percent probability of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting ending the following Wednesday. Axios reported that CME's FedWatch estimate was 72 percent before that day's inflation data.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "parties": [
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        "federal-open-market-committee",
        "cme-group"
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      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/the-feds-big-inflation-test",
          "outlet": "Axios",
          "published": "2026-09-11",
          "quote": "Investors now see an 85% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's meeting that concludes next Wednesday — up from 72% before today's inflation data, according to CME's FedWatch tool."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
      "id": 969,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n969",
      "date": "2026-09-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Markets price a roughly 70 percent chance of a September rate hike",
      "summary": "Traders priced a roughly 70 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62 percent before the producer price data, according to LSEG interest rate probabilities.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Reserve",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "CME Group",
        "LSEG"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "federal-reserve",
        "federal-open-market-committee",
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        "lseg"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/news/treasuries-us-yields-climb-as-inflation-amps-up-rate-hike-bets-oil-soars",
          "outlet": "Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights",
          "published": "2026-09-10",
          "quote": "After the data, traders were betting on a roughly 70% chance the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15 to 16 meeting, up from 62% earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probabilities data."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "timeline": "us-beef-prices",
      "id": 985,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n985",
      "date": "2026-04-14",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Live cattle futures break $250 and Northern cash trades hit $250 for the first time",
      "summary": "Record cash trade in the North pushed the April live cattle contract through the $250 mark, above the previous October's highs, with feeder cattle making new contract highs. The 75-year low in inventory and the closed Mexican border were tightening supply into grilling season even as Washington was trying to talk prices down.",
      "type": "financial",
      "entities": [
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "parties": [
        "cme-group"
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.drovers.com/news/breaking-250-barrier-cattle-markets-charge-new-all-time-highs",
          "outlet": "Drovers",
          "published": "2026-04-15",
          "quote": "Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says although it was on light volume, the North led the cash trade with live sales hitting an eye-popping $250 for the first time ever."
        }
      ]
    }
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