# Record Beef Prices: The Smallest Herd Since 1951, the Packer Probe and the Import Fix

- URL: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices
- Topic: Economy · Tags: Economy, Antitrust, Beef, Brooke Rollins, Cattle, Donald Trump, Food prices
- Updated: Oct 14, 2026 · 46 dated entries

## Summary

Years of drought-driven herd liquidation reduced the U.S. cattle inventory from 89.3 million head in 2023 to 86.2 million on January 1, 2026, the lowest level since 1951. The May 2025 closure of the Mexican border to live cattle over New World screwworm further constrained feeder-cattle supply, although imports resumed in limited phases at Douglas in August and Santa Teresa in September 2026. Washington has responded with temporary duty-free beef quotas, programs to expand processing and encourage heifer retention, and antitrust inquiries into major packers and eight grocery chains. Retail pressure remains substantial—ground beef averaged $7.158 a pound in August and USDA forecasts beef and veal prices up 9.4% for 2026—even as the BLS beef index fell 1.0% in September; the central question is whether imports and enforcement actions can lower prices without slowing a domestic herd rebuild that will take years.

## Key moments

- Jan 1, 2023: U.S. cattle inventory falls to 89.3 million head
- May 11, 2025: USDA closes the southern border to live cattle over New World screwworm
- Jan 30, 2026: The US cattle herd falls to 86.2 million head, the smallest since 1951
- Feb 6, 2026: Proclamation 11010 opens an extra 80,000 tonnes of tariff-free Argentine lean beef
- Apr 14, 2026: Live cattle futures break $250 and Northern cash trades hit $250 for the first time
- May 4, 2026: DOJ confirms a criminal antitrust investigation of the Big Four beef packers
- Jul 24, 2026: USDA says the Douglas port will reopen to Mexican cattle in phases from August 24
- Aug 26, 2026: A second proclamation adds 300,000 tonnes, allocated to countries other than Argentina
- Aug 31, 2026: Rollins announces the Ranchers First Initiative to rebuild the herd
- Sep 1, 2026: The Justice Department expands the beef investigation to eight retailers
- Sep 4, 2026: Executive Order 14424 tells USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations
- Oct 14, 2026: U.S. beef index falls 1.0 percent in September

## Timeline (newest first)

### Oct 14, 2026 — U.S. beef index falls 1.0 percent in September

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the beef index fell 1.0 percent in September. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5 percent over the month.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n2164 (Financial)
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm — "The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5 percent over 
the month, as the beef index fell 1.0 percent."
- Editor's note: The BLS September 2026 CPI release states that the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index decreased 0.5 percent and that the beef index fell 1.0 percent over the month.

### Oct 14, 2026 — Food is flat on the month and groceries fall slightly, while everything around them rises

In the September CPI the food index was unchanged on the month, with food away from home up 0.2 percent and food at home down 0.1 percent; food rose 2.5 percent over the year. Against headline inflation at 3.7 percent and energy at 20.4 percent, groceries were the quiet part of this print — which is not what the record cattle prices on this page would lead you to expect.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n2150 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm — "The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent and the index for food at home fell 0.1 percent."

### Oct 9, 2026 — USDA cuts its beef production forecast again and leaves the cattle price forecast exactly where it was

The October WASDE lowered 2026 red meat and poultry production, with beef cut for the second half as lighter carcass weights and lower steer and heifer slaughter outweighed heavier cow slaughter. The 2027 forecast came down too, on lighter dressed weights and feedlot placements in the second half of 2026 running below expectation, which is expected to slow marketings into the first quarter of 2027. Against all of that, the board left its cattle price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged — the herd keeps shrinking on paper without USDA moving the number that reaches a shopper.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1991 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture · Oct 9, 2026 · https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.pdf — "The forecast for 2026 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef and pork production is partly offset by increased broiler and turkey production."
- Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture · Oct 9, 2026 · https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.pdf — "Cattle price forecasts were unchanged for 2026 and 2027."
- Editor's note: Added by hand in review. The October WASDE fired as a watch date on 9 October and the research pass did not pick it up, though the report is public and the fetcher reads all 56,000 characters of it. Both quotes are from that PDF.

### Oct 9, 2026 — Farm Bureau urges USDA to retain meatpacking rules

The American Farm Bureau Federation said it wanted the rules to remain in place. It also asked that the rules be highlighted in the report sent to the president.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1990 (Response)
- Source: RFD-TV · Oct 9, 2026 · https://www.rfdtv.com/farm-bureau-presses-for-contract-protections-as-usda-reviews-meatpacking-rules — "“We want to make sure that those rules stay in place and are highlighted in the report that is sent to the president"
- Editor's note: The cited RFD-TV article says American Farm Bureau Federation official R.J. Layher wanted the rules to stay in place and highlighted in the report sent to the president. It was published on 2026-10-09. Quote trimmed in review: the stored version closed with a full stop the page does not have — the sentence runs on into “,” he said.”

### Oct 6, 2026 — Texas modifies New World screwworm Infested Zone 06

Texas modified New World screwworm Infested Zone 06 with USDA APHIS concurrence. The modification removed screwworm-related livestock and pet movement requirements within certain released areas, while interstate and international export requirements remained in effect.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1885 (Regulatory)
- Source: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/texas-modifies-new-world-screwworm-infested-zone-texas — "Modifying infested zones removes NWS‑related movement requirements for livestock and pets within certain areas."
- Editor's note: The cited APHIS page supports all summary claims, including TAHC's action with APHIS concurrence, release of Infested Zone 06, removal of certain in-area movement requirements, and continued interstate and international export requirements. The readable page text does not state an event date.

### Oct 1, 2026 — Second other-countries lean-beef quota tranche opens

The second 100,000-metric-ton tranche for other countries or areas opened on October 1, 2026. The tranche was scheduled to close on October 30, 2026.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1750 (Regulatory)
- Source: Federal Register · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-31/pdf/2026-17842.pdf — "“The second tranche of 100,000 mt will open on October 1, 2026, and close on October 30, 2026.”"
- Editor's note: The page states that the additional quantity is allocated entirely to “other countries or areas” and that the second 100,000-metric-ton tranche opens October 1, 2026 and closes October 30, 2026.

### Oct 1, 2026 — Final Argentine lean-beef quota tranche opens

The fourth 20,000-metric-ton tranche of the Argentine lean-beef-trimmings quota opened on October 1, 2026. The tranche was scheduled to close on December 31, 2026.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1749 (Regulatory)
- Source: Federal Register · Feb 13, 2026 · https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-02-13/pdf/2026-03050.pdf — "“The fourth tranche of 20,000 mt will open on October 1, 2026, and close on December 31, 2026.”"
- Editor's note: The page states that the additional quota is allocated entirely to Argentina and that the fourth 20,000-metric-ton tranche opens on October 1, 2026, closing on December 31, 2026.

### Oct 2026 — Sterile fly dispersal facility opens in Hermosillo

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said a sterile fly dispersal facility in Hermosillo, Mexico, opened in October 2026. RFD-TV reported that aircraft were departing Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1988 (Launch)
- Source: USDA APHIS · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/sterile-fly-production-dispersal — "The newest sterile fly dispersal facility—in Hermosillo, Mexico—opened in October 2026."
- Source: RFD-TV · Oct 7, 2026 · https://www.rfdtv.com/new-sterile-fly-facility-opens-in-hermosillo — "Video posted by the Screwworm Rapid Response Team shows planes taking off in Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico."
- Editor's note: APHIS states that the Hermosillo sterile fly dispersal facility opened in October 2026. RFD-TV reports planes departing Hermosillo to disperse sterile flies in targeted areas of Mexico and New Mexico.

### Sep 25, 2026 — KLA reports delayed cattle shipments amid ICE workforce disruption

Kansas Livestock Association said reports included thousands of fed cattle whose shipment to processors was delayed, with lost revenue and additional costs. The Department of Homeland Security confirmed officers were present in Kansas and said they were not conducting worksite raids.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1633 (Response)
- Source: Kansas Livestock Association · Sep 25, 2026 · https://www.kla.org/news-center/news-releases/news/details/51105/kla-responds-to-ice-workforce-disruptions — "Reports have included thousands of fed cattle delayed in shipping to processors, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs."
- Source: Associated Press · Sep 25, 2026 · https://apnews.com/article/meatpacking-immigration-kansas-texas-oklahoma-grocery-prices-6fe81b0b37cc56a0556ba64158bbc2c4 — "The Department of Homeland Security confirmed their presence in Kansas but said they are not conducting worksite raids."
- Editor's note: The page is readable and dated September 25, 2026. It states that reports included thousands of fed cattle delayed in shipping to processors, causing millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs; it does not address the DHS statement in the summary.

### Sep 25, 2026 — ERS forecasts 9.4 percent rise in 2026 beef and veal prices

USDA Economic Research Service forecast that beef and veal prices would increase 9.4 percent in 2026. The forecast interval was 7.4 percent to 11.6 percent.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1632 (Report)
- Source: USDA Economic Research Service · Sep 25, 2026 · https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings — "Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 11.6 percent."
- Editor's note: The page is readable and was updated 2026-09-25. It explicitly states that beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 11.6 percent.

### Sep 24, 2026 — Live-cattle imports resume through Santa Teresa

Cattle imports resumed through the Santa Teresa crossing in New Mexico at 10:50 a.m. Mountain Time, after more than sixteen months halted.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1507 (Shipment)
- Source: El Paso Times, republished by AOL · Sep 24, 2026 · https://www.aol.com/articles/mexican-cattle-cross-mexico-again-170313000.html — "Cattle imports resumed after 10:50 a.m. MT, Thursday, Sept. 24, after being halted for more than 16 months."
- Source: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 24, 2026 · https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/current-status?page=1 — "After evaluating the success of the initial reopening and potential impacts or risk assessment changes, APHIS will then consider reopening the Santa Teresa, NM and Columbus, NM ports to live cattle, bison, and horses."
- Editor's note: Editor: dropped a sentence about an APHIS status page and a further reopening the cited report does not mention. The resumption, its time and the length of the halt are quoted from it.

### Sep 23, 2026 — Farm Bureau says its ground-beef sample showed a 16-cent price decline

The American Farm Bureau Federation said its economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day. It reported that average prices had fallen 16 cents per pound.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1748 (Response)
- Source: American Farm Bureau Federation · Sep 23, 2026 · https://www.fb.org/news-release/farmers-renew-call-to-end-increased-beef-imports — "“Farm Bureau economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day and found that, on average, prices have fallen only 16 cents per pound.”"
- Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center / American Farm Bureau Federation · Oct 5, 2026 · https://lmic.info/resources/publications/in-the-cattle-markets/ — "Across our sample, the average price of ground beef barely moved, going from $7.29 a pound on Sept. 2 to $7.16 a pound on Oct. 5 – a reduction of 13 cents or 1.8%."
- Editor's note: The page states that Farm Bureau economists tracked 41 locations since Labor Day and found average prices had fallen only 16 cents per pound. It is dated September 23, 2026.

### Sep 21, 2026 — Texas releases one screwworm infested zone and modifies another

The Texas Animal Health Commission released Infested Zone 11 and modified Infested Zone 04 with concurrence from USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. The action removed New World screwworm-specific movement requirements for livestock and pets in the affected areas, while interstate and international-export requirements remained in force.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1506 (Regulatory)
- Source: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 21, 2026 · https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/texas-releases-new-world-screwworm-infested-zones — "The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) has released one New World screwworm (NWS) infested zone in Texas and modified another, with concurrence from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)."
- Editor's note: The page states that TAHC released one New World screwworm infested zone and modified another with APHIS concurrence, removing NWS-related local movement requirements while interstate and export requirements remain. The readable page text does not provide an event date.

### Sep 17, 2026 — USDA schedules Santa Teresa cattle-port reopening for September 24

USDA scheduled the Santa Teresa livestock crossing to reopen on September 24. Bloomberg reported that agency staff were preparing at the site, while an APHIS importer page last modified August 25 listed the reopening date as to be determined.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1395 (Announcement)
- Source: Bloomberg News via Transport Topics · Sep 17, 2026 · https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-reopen-port-mexican-cattle — "The port is scheduled to reopen Sept. 24, and agency staff are already preparing on site, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a Sept. 17 press conference."
- Source: KVIA ABC-7 · Sep 17, 2026 · https://kvia.com/news/top-stories/2026/09/17/new-mexico-border-authority-usda-prepare-to-reopen-livestock-crossing/ — "The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Thursday the livestock crossing in Santa Teresa will reopen next week after more than two years."
- Source: USDA APHIS · Aug 25, 2026 · https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/live-animal-import/cattle-bison-germplasm/mexico — "Santa Teresa, NM—To be determined"
- Editor's note: The article states that the Santa Teresa port is scheduled to reopen Sept. 24 and that agency staff are already preparing on site, attributing this to Secretary Brooke Rollins at a Sept. 17 press conference. The page is dated September 17, 2026.

### Sep 16, 2026 — Texas releases Infested Zone 09 from screwworm restrictions

The Texas Animal Health Commission released specified areas of Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties from the June 24 quarantine and movement restrictions for Infested Zone 09. USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service concurred with the zone release.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1393 (Regulatory)
- Source: Texas Animal Health Commission · Sep 16, 2026 · https://www.tahc.texas.gov/regs/pdf/2026-09-16_NWS_EDO-InfestedZoneRelease_09.pdf — "Therefore, the following areas of Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties are hereby released from the quarantine and movement restrictions imposed by the June 24, 2026 order establishing Infested Zone 09:"
- Source: USDA APHIS · Sep 16, 2026 · https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/texas-releases-new-world-screwworm-infested-zone-texas — "The Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) has released a New World screwworm (NWS) infested zone in Texas, with concurrence from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)."
- Editor's note: The TAHC order, signed September 16, 2026, releases specified areas in Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde Counties from the June 24, 2026 Infested Zone 09 restrictions. APHIS states that it concurred with TAHC’s release of the zone.

### Sep 9, 2026 — Douglas reopens again after a weeklong pause over inoperable cattle chutes

The only cattle crossing on the US-Mexico border went back into service on Tuesday after USDA paused it in late August, having been told that the chutes on the Mexican side had become inoperable following welding modifications. The stoppage showed how thin the reopened channel still was.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n995 (Update)
- Source: KJZZ · Sep 9, 2026 · https://www.kjzz.org/fronteras-desk/2026-09-09/douglas-cattle-border-crossing-reopens-after-weeklong-pause-for-technical-problem — "The Douglas border crossing reopened to cattle Tuesday after a more than weeklong pause - making it the only point on the U.S.-Mexico border where live cattle imports can cross."
- Source: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · Sep 11, 2026 · https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/current-status — "On August 24, 2026, USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port to cattle imports from Mexico, guided by overlapping safeguards and a science-based import protocol jointly agreed upon between the United States and Mexico."

### Sep 4, 2026 — Executive Order 14425 orders a review of mandatory beef country-of-origin labeling

Executive Order 14425 directed the Secretary of Agriculture to review authorities that may allow mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef products. The Secretary was directed to consult the United States Trade Representative within 90 days.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1007 (Regulatory)
- Source: White House · Sep 4, 2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/supporting-americas-ranchers/ — "Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the United States Trade Representative, shall review all statutory and regulatory authorities that may permit the establishment of mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef products."
- Editor's note: The page identifies the action as Executive Order 14425, dated September 4, 2026. Section 4 contains the quoted language directing the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the U.S. Trade Representative, to review authorities for mandatory beef country-of-origin labeling within 90 days.

### Sep 4, 2026 — Executive Order 14424 tells USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations

Executive Order 14424 directed the Secretary of Agriculture to prioritize and expand investigations of possible Packers and Stockyards Act violations. The order called for attention to practices that restrain commerce or manipulate prices.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1006 (Regulatory)
- Source: White House · Sep 4, 2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/promoting-fair-competition-in-livestock-markets-and-expanding-market-access-for-american-meat-producers/ — "The Secretary of Agriculture (Secretary) shall, consistent with the Act, and all other applicable law: prioritize and expand investigations into potential violations of the Act by packers and other covered entities, with particular attention to unfair, unjustly discriminatory, or deceptive practices; undue or unreasonable preferences or advantages; and practices that restrain commerce or manipulate prices."
- Editor's note: The page identifies the action as Executive Order 14424, dated September 4, 2026. Section 2 directs the Secretary of Agriculture to prioritize and expand Packers and Stockyards Act investigations, specifically including practices that restrain commerce or manipulate prices.

### Sep 1, 2026 — The Justice Department expands the beef investigation to eight retailers

The Antitrust Division said on X that it had widened its beef affordability investigation to eight major grocery chains, naming the recipients of Woodward's letters. The move pushed the inquiry down the supply chain from the packers to the shelf, though economists kept pointing at the record-low cattle inventory as the explanation.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n994 (Legal)
- Source: The Cattle Site (Global Ag Media) · Sep 3, 2026 · https://www.thecattlesite.com/news/doj-expands-beef-pricing-probe-to-major-retailers — "The US Department of Justice said in a post on social media platform X on Tuesday that its antitrust division has expanded an investigation on beef affordability to add eight major retailers, including Walmart and Costco, reported Reuters."
- Source: Fox Business · Sep 2, 2026 · https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/doj-expands-beef-price-investigation-walmart-costco-amazon-other-major-retailers — "The letters obtained by FOX Business provide details about the scope of the investigation, showing that federal antitrust officials are examining retailers' beef pricing strategies, profit margins, costs and purchasing arrangements dating back to 2020."

### Sep 2026 — Beef-cow slaughter is 13.7 percent below year-earlier level

Beef-cow slaughter was down 13.7 percent year over year in 2026 to date. The report said beef-cow slaughter had declined 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1634 (Report)
- Source: BEEF Magazine / Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension · Sep 29, 2026 · https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/turning-the-corner-on-the-cattle-cycle — "Beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025 and is down another 13.7 percent year over year thus far in 2026."
- Editor's note: The page states that beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5 percent from 2022 through 2025 and was down another 13.7 percent year over year in 2026. It was published on 2026-09-29, which supports the node's September 2026 date.

### Aug 31, 2026 — Rollins announces the Ranchers First Initiative to rebuild the herd

USDA packaged a set of actions aimed at getting ranchers to hold back heifers rather than sell them, including a Beef Retention and National Development endorsement for Livestock Risk Protection, a SPUR guaranteed loan programme for regional processing, and a Regional Processor Continuity Effort. The release noted that with recent closure announcements, nearly 20 percent of beef processing capacity would be available as the herd grows.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n993 (Announcement)
- Source: RFD-TV (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.rfdtv.com/usda-secretary-rollins-announces-ranchers-first-initiatives-to-rebuild-the-great-american-beef-herd — "USDA is going to secure tomorrow's herd through the new Beef Retention and National Development (BRAND) endorsement for Livestock Risk Protection (LRP)."
- Source: WBIW (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.wbiw.com/2026/08/31/new-actions-build-on-usdas-2026-plan-to-fortify-the-american-beef-industry/ — "With recent processing closure announcements, nearly 20% of beef processing capacity will be available as the herd grows."

### Aug 26, 2026 — A second proclamation adds 300,000 tonnes, allocated to countries other than Argentina

The August proclamation raised the aggregate in-quota quantity by 300,000 metric tons for 2026, administered first come, first served in three 100,000-tonne tranches opening September 1, October 1 and October 31. The volume was allocated entirely to "other countries or areas," leaving the February Argentine allocation untouched, and the Agriculture Secretary and USTR were told to check whether the imports were in fact selling 25 percent below the market price.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n992 (Regulatory)
- Source: The White House · Aug 26, 2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ — "(3) The additional 300,000 mt described in clauses (1) and (2) of this proclamation will be administered on a first come, first served basis in three 30 day tranches."
- Source: Federal Register · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17842/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer — "(2) The additional 300,000 mt described in clause (1) of this proclamation will apply only to lean beef trimmings classifiable under HTSUS statistical reporting numbers 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097."

### Aug 25, 2026 — ERS forecasts a 9.8 percent rise in 2026 beef and veal prices

The Economic Research Service forecast that beef and veal prices would increase 9.8 percent in 2026. Its forecast interval ranged from 7.0 percent to 12.6 percent.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1005 (Report)
- Source: USDA Economic Research Service · Aug 25, 2026 · https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000618 — "Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.0 to 12.6 percent."
- Editor's note: The page is updated 2026-08-25 and explicitly states that beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.8 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.0 to 12.6 percent.

### Aug 24, 2026 — The first cattle in more than a year cross at Douglas, Arizona

Nearly 700 animals came through the border wall at Douglas on the Monday the port reopened, the first cattle to cross in more than a year. APHIS chief veterinary officer Alan Huddleston said the inspection included screwworm-sniffing dogs and called the reopening a proof of concept that, if it holds, would lead to more ports opening along the border.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n991 (Update)
- Source: KJZZ · Aug 25, 2026 · https://www.kjzz.org/fronteras-desk/2026-08-25/u-s-mexico-border-reopens-to-cattle-as-new-world-screwworm-ban-lifts — "The cattle that came through the border wall Monday went through a rigorous inspection procedure, said Alan Huddleston, the chief veterinary officer at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS. The added layers of protection included inspections by specially trained screwworm-sniffing dogs, Huddleston said."
- Source: KCBD · Aug 25, 2026 · https://www.fox34.com/2026/08/25/border-reopens-mexican-cattle-imports-us-works-contain-screwworm/ — "LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - The U.S. reopened the border crossing in Arizona to cattle imports from Mexico on Monday, as part of a phased plan to control the spread of the New World screwworm."

### Aug 21, 2026 — Trump announces 300,000 tonnes of tariff-free ground beef imports; NCBA calls it a mistake

In a Truth Social post Trump said he had concluded a deal under which the United States would let up to 300,000 metric tons of ground-beef product in with no out-of-quota tariff for 90 days, with a commitment that it be sold 25 percent below market prices. Cattle markets fell that morning, and NCBA chief executive Colin Woodall said flooding the market with government-subsidised below-market beef was not the way to rebuild the American herd.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n990 (Announcement)
- Source: BEEF Magazine · Aug 21, 2026 · https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-group-reacts-to-trump-s-beef-import-post — ""Today, I concluded a deal to substantially lower the price of ground beef for working American families," Trump posted."

### Aug 2026 — U.S. commercial beef output and cattle slaughter decline

U.S. commercial beef production totaled 1.98 billion pounds, 2 percent below August 2025. Commercial cattle slaughter totaled 2.24 million head, down 4 percent from a year earlier.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1505 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Sep 24, 2026 · https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796074/lstk0926.txt — "Beef production, at 1.98 billion pounds, was 2 percent below the previous year."
- Editor's note: The page reports August 2026 commercial beef production of 1.98 billion pounds, down 2 percent from August 2025, and commercial cattle slaughter of 2.24 million head, down 4 percent. The quoted sentence appears on the page.

### Aug 2026 — U.S. average ground-beef price rises in August

The U.S. city-average price for all uncooked ground beef was $7.158 per pound in August 2026. The reported price was 0.6 percent higher than in July and 7.9 percent higher than in August 2025.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1392 (Financial)
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandsouth_table.htm — "All uncooked ground beef, per lb. (453.6 gm) 6.631 7.116 7.158 7.9 0.6."
- Editor's note: The table’s U.S. city-average row for all uncooked ground beef lists August 2026 at $7.158 per pound, up 7.9 percent from August 2025 and 0.6 percent from July 2026. The quoted row appears on the page.

### Jul 24, 2026 — USDA says the Douglas port will reopen to Mexican cattle in phases from August 24

After more than a year of closure, Rollins said it was safe to reopen the Douglas, Arizona port in 30 days and resume cattle movement, with a phased schedule and a jointly agreed import protocol. Douglas would be the only crossing open, a fraction of the pre-closure trade.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n989 (Announcement)
- Source: The Texas Tribune · Jul 24, 2026 · https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/24/united-states-mexico-cattle-industry-imports-resumption-screwworm/ — ""Thanks to the work of the federal government as well as state, local, and industry partners, it is now safe to reopen the Douglas, Arizona, port in 30 days to resume the hundreds year old movement of cattle.""
- Source: Fortune (Associated Press) · Jul 27, 2026 · https://fortune.com/2026/07/27/u-s-to-reopen-border-to-mexican-cattle-imports-after-screwworm-ban/ — "The United States announced Friday it will begin reopening the border to Mexican cattle imports on Aug. 24, more than a year after it imposed the measure due to the spread of the New World screwworm in Mexico."

### Jul 14, 2026 — Associate Attorney General Woodward writes to eight grocery chains about beef prices

Identical letters dated July 14 went to Kroger, Walmart, Publix, Albertsons, Aldi, Ahold Delhaize USA, Costco and Amazon, telling each that the Antitrust Division was assessing trends in beef prices. Investigators asked for retail and wholesale prices, costs and margins, pricing strategy and market analyses going back to 2020.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n988 (Legal)
- Source: Fox Business · Sep 2, 2026 · https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/doj-expands-beef-price-investigation-walmart-costco-amazon-other-major-retailers — ""The Antitrust Division is assessing trends in beef prices - a matter of critical concern to the American public, and a priority for the United States Department of Justice," Woodward wrote in identical letters dated July 14 and addressed separately to each company."
- Source: Newsweek · Sep 2, 2026 · https://www.newsweek.com/doj-probes-soaring-beef-prices-at-eight-major-stores-including-walmart-12393757 — "We will be seeking data and information that we anticipate to be in your company's records relating to your company's retail sales and prices, wholesale purchases and prices, costs and margins for beef products, pricing and purchasing strategy, your company's analyses of market trends in the wholesale or retail price of beef, and information about factors influencing beef prices.""

### Jul 1, 2026 — U.S. beef-cow inventory is 28.5 million head

The United States had 28.5 million beef cows as of July 1, 2026. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that the figure was 1 percent below the prior year.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1004 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jul 24, 2026 · https://data.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2026/07-24-2026.php — "There are 28.5 million beef cows in the United States as of July 1, 2026, down 1% from last year."
- Editor's note: The page states that there were 28.5 million U.S. beef cows as of July 1, 2026, down 1% from the prior year. The quoted sentence appears verbatim aside from standard punctuation formatting.

### Jun 30, 2026 — USDA puts $500 million into small and regional beef processors

The Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers programme offered up to $500 million to independent and regional beef slaughter facilities, alongside a Small Processors Action Plan and a fourth $60 million round of the Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program. The theory was that more places to sell cattle would weaken the Big Four's hold on the market.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n987 (Announcement)
- Source: RFD-TV (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.rfdtv.com/usda-secretary-rollins-announces-ranchers-first-initiatives-to-rebuild-the-great-american-beef-herd — "June 2026: Secretary Rollins announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) Program, providing up to $500 million to independent and regional beef slaughter facilities."

### May 4, 2026 — DOJ confirms a criminal antitrust investigation of the Big Four beef packers

At a press conference with Agriculture Secretary Rollins and trade adviser Peter Navarro, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the department had prioritised potential antitrust violations in cattle and beef markets, noting that four processors control more than 85 percent of the business and that two are primarily foreign-owned. Prosecutors said they had reviewed more than three million documents and encouraged whistleblowers to come forward.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n986 (Legal)
- Source: Drovers · May 8, 2026 · https://www.drovers.com/news/ag-policy/doj-usda-ramp-antitrust-investigation-big-4-beef-packers — ""We prioritized investigating potential antitrust violations in U.S. cattle and beef markets," Blanche says. "In the beef industry, the Big Four processors control over 85% of the beef processing market."
- Source: U.S. Department of Justice · May 4, 2026 · https://www.justice.gov/opa/video/acting-attorney-blanche-announces-antitrust-investigations-meatpacking-operations — "Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro held a press conference on antitrust investigations and meatpacking operations."

### Apr 14, 2026 — Live cattle futures break $250 and Northern cash trades hit $250 for the first time

Record cash trade in the North pushed the April live cattle contract through the $250 mark, above the previous October's highs, with feeder cattle making new contract highs. The 75-year low in inventory and the closed Mexican border were tightening supply into grilling season even as Washington was trying to talk prices down.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n985 (Financial)
- Source: Drovers · Apr 15, 2026 · https://www.drovers.com/news/breaking-250-barrier-cattle-markets-charge-new-all-time-highs — "Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says although it was on light volume, the North led the cash trade with live sales hitting an eye-popping $250 for the first time ever."

### Mar 31, 2026 — USDA and Interior sign a grazing memorandum to open public rangeland

The two departments agreed to expand grazing access and cut permitting delays on federal land, one of the supply-side answers to a herd that cannot grow without feed and forage. USDA later listed the memorandum among the actions it counted as its record for ranchers.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n984 (Regulatory)
- Source: WBIW (USDA release) · Aug 31, 2026 · https://www.wbiw.com/2026/08/31/new-actions-build-on-usdas-2026-plan-to-fortify-the-american-beef-industry/ — "March 2026: USDA and the Department of the Interior signed a Memorandum of Understanding to expand grazing access and cut permitting delays on public lands."

### Feb 6, 2026 — Proclamation 11010 opens an extra 80,000 tonnes of tariff-free Argentine lean beef

Trump signed a proclamation temporarily raising the beef tariff-rate quota, letting an additional 80,000 metric tons of Argentine lean beef trimmings in duty-free during 2026 in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 tonnes. Lean trimmings are blended with fattier domestic trimmings to make ground beef, so the action targeted the single most politically visible price in the grocery store.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n983 (Regulatory)
- Source: The White House · Feb 6, 2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-ensures-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ — "The Proclamation permits an additional 80,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings per year from Argentina to be imported tariff-free in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each."
- Source: The White House · Feb 6, 2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/02/ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ — "After considering the information provided to me by the Secretary of Agriculture, among other relevant information, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the United States beef TRQ to increase the supply of ground beef for United States consumers. 10."

### Jan 30, 2026 — The US cattle herd falls to 86.2 million head, the smallest since 1951

The NASS Cattle report put all cattle and calves at 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, down 0.3 percent from a year earlier and the smallest US inventory in 75 years. Beef cows were down 1 percent at 27.6 million and the calf crop fell 2 percent, meaning the supply of animals that would reach slaughter weight in 2027 had already been set.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n982 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 30, 2026 · https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2026/01-30-2026.php — "There were 86.2 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Cattle report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Other key findings in the report were: Of the 86.2 million head inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million."
- Source: American Farm Bureau Federation · Feb 2, 2026 · https://www.fb.org/market-intel/smaller-cattle-herd-creates-market-volatility — "The January U.S. Cattle Inventory report shows the cattle inventory on Jan. 1, 2026, is 86.2 million head, down 300,000 head or 0.3% from 2025."

### Jan 1, 2026 — FSIS begins enforcing voluntary U.S.-origin meat-label claims

Food Safety and Inspection Service personnel began enforcement of voluntary U.S.-origin claims on regulated products before the products could enter commerce. The enforcement applied to claims including “Product of USA” and “Made in the USA.”

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n1000 (Regulatory)
- Source: USDA · Oct 22, 2025 · https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA%20Beef%20Industry%20Plan%20White%20Paper.pdf — "Effective January 1, 2026, FSIS inspection personnel will begin enforcing compliance on FSIS-regulated products that bear voluntary “Product of USA,” “Made in the USA,” and other U.S.-origin claims before they may enter commerce."
- Editor's note: The page states that effective January 1, 2026, FSIS inspection personnel will enforce compliance for FSIS-regulated products bearing voluntary “Product of USA,” “Made in the USA,” and other U.S.-origin claims before they enter commerce. The summary accurately reflects this.

### Dec 6, 2025 — Executive Order 14364 sets up food supply chain task forces at DOJ and the FTC

The order told the Attorney General and the FTC chairman each to stand up a Food Supply Chain Security Task Force to investigate whether anti-competitive behaviour exists in US food supply chains, and whether foreign control of food industries raises prices or creates a national security risk. It named meat processing alongside seed, fertiliser and equipment, and directed the Attorney General to open criminal proceedings if the task force found collusion.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n981 (Regulatory)
- Source: Federal Register (Presidential Documents) · Dec 10, 2025 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eo-14364.pdf — "Should the Department of Justice Food Supply Chain Security Task Force uncover any evidence of criminal collusion, the Attorney General shall commence criminal proceedings as appropriate, including grand jury investigations."

### Nov 7, 2025 — Trump orders a Justice Department investigation of the meatpackers

In a Truth Social post, Trump said he had asked the Justice Department to investigate the meatpacking industry for collusion and price fixing, arguing that ranchers were being blamed for prices set by what he called majority foreign-owned packers. Ground beef was up about 13 percent year over year at the time, rising faster than almost anything else in the Consumer Price Index.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n980 (Regulatory)
- Source: Axios · Nov 7, 2025 · https://www.axios.com/2025/11/07/trump-beef-doj — ""Action must be taken immediately to protect Consumers, combat Illegal Monopolies, and ensure these Corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American People," Trump wrote."
- Source: Fox Business · Nov 7, 2025 · https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-orders-doj-investigate-meatpacking-companies-illicit-collusion-amid-rising-beef-prices — ""I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation," Trump wrote."

### Oct 22, 2025 — Federal departments announce Plan to Fortify the American Beef Industry

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Department of the Interior, Department of Health and Human Services, and Small Business Administration announced actions for the American beef industry. The announcement identified the role of American ranchers in national security.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n999 (Announcement)
- Source: USDA · Oct 22, 2025 · https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/10/22/secretary-rollins-announces-plan-american-ranchers-and-consumers — "Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler announced a suite of actions to strengthen the American beef industry, reinforcing and prioritizing the American rancher’s critical role in the national security of the United States."
- Editor's note: The USDA press release is readable and is titled "Secretary Rollins Announces Plan for American Ranchers and Consumers." It states that the four officials announced actions to strengthen the American beef industry and uses the quoted language about ranchers' critical role in U.S. national security; it is published October 22, 2025.

### Oct 20, 2025 — Trump floats buying Argentine beef, and cattle groups object

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said the United States would buy beef from Argentina to bring prices down and to help Buenos Aires. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association objected that the move rewarded a country that sells far more beef to the US than it buys, and Senator Chuck Grassley told AgriTalk the president ought to stop talking about beef prices.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n979 (Announcement)
- Source: Drovers · Oct 20, 2025 · https://www.drovers.com/news/industry/argentina-beef-answer-lowering-beef-prices — ""We would buy some beef from Argentina," he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington."

### Jul 19, 2025 — Beef prices hit record highs with no end in sight

Retail beef was already at an all-time high in the summer of 2025, and analysts told Axios the cause was a supply problem years in the making: the 2021-2022 drought had forced ranchers to sell breeding stock, and rebuilding a herd takes years because a heifer held back is a calf not sold.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n978 (Report)
- Source: Axios · Jul 19, 2025 · https://www.axios.com/2025/07/19/beef-prices-2025-cpi-inflation — "A multi-year drought shrunk cattle herds, and global imports are under threat - but consumer demand remains strong."

### May 11, 2025 — USDA closes the southern border to live cattle over New World screwworm

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suspended imports of live cattle, horses and bison through every port of entry on the southern border, after the flesh-eating parasite was found on farms about 700 miles from the US line. Mexican feeder cattle had supplied roughly 5 percent of US feedlot placements, and the closure removed that supply just as the domestic herd was already shrinking.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n977 (Regulatory)
- Source: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service · May 11, 2025 · https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/secretary-rollins-suspends-live-animal-imports-through-ports-entry-along — "(Washington, D.C., May 11, 2025) - U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins today announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports through U.S. ports of entry along the southern border due to the continued and rapid northward spread of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico, effective immediately. NWS has been recently detected in remote farms with minimal cattle movement as far north as Oaxaca and Veracruz, about 700 miles away from the U.S. border."
- Source: CNN · May 14, 2025 · https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/14/health/mexico-cattle-imports-halted-screwworm — "The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the transport of live cattle, horses and bison through ports of entry along the border with Mexico for at least two weeks. It's part of an effort to curb the spread of New World screwworm, a flesh-burrowing larva that can be fatal to animals and devastate cattle herds."

### Jan 1, 2025 — U.S. cattle inventory reaches 86.7 million head

U.S. farms had 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 1, 2025. The National Agricultural Statistics Service published the Cattle report containing the figure.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n998 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 31, 2025 · https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2025/01-31-2025.php — "There were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Cattle report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)."
- Editor's note: The page states that U.S. farms had 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 1, 2025, and attributes the figure to NASS's Cattle report. The page reproduces the quoted text; its release dateline says January 31, 2024, but the stated inventory event date is January 1, 2025.

### Jan 1, 2024 — U.S. cattle inventory declines to 87.2 million head

U.S. cattle and calf inventory totaled 87.2 million head on January 1, 2024. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that the total was 2 percent below its stated January 1, 2023 comparison level.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n997 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 31, 2024 · https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Regional_Office/Southern/includes/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/Cattle2024.pdf — "Inventory of all cattle and calves in the United States, as of January 1, 2024, totaled 87.2 million head, down 2 percent from the 88.8 million head on January 1, 2023."
- Editor's note: The page states that U.S. cattle and calves inventory as of January 1, 2024 totaled 87.2 million head, down 2 percent from 88.8 million on January 1, 2023. The stated event date matches the report.

### Jan 1, 2023 — U.S. cattle inventory falls to 89.3 million head

U.S. cattle and calf inventory totaled 89.3 million head on January 1, 2023. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that the total was 3 percent below the January 1, 2022 inventory.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/us-beef-prices#n996 (Report)
- Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service · Jan 31, 2023 · https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Regional_Office/Southern/includes/Publications/Livestock_Releases/Cattle_Inventory/Cattle2023.pdf — "Inventory of all cattle and calves in the United States, as of January 1, 2023, totaled 89.3 million head, down 3 percent from the 92.1 million head on January 1, 2022."
- Editor's note: The page states that U.S. cattle and calf inventory as of January 1, 2023 totaled 89.3 million head, down 3 percent from 92.1 million on January 1, 2022. The quoted text appears on the page, aside from line wrapping.

## Cause and effect

- A second proclamation adds 300,000 tonnes, allocated to countries other than Argentina was answered by Farm Bureau says its ground-beef sample showed a 16-cent price decline (The American Farm Bureau Federation used its retail-price sample in calling for the additional 300,000-metric-ton import plan to be rolled back.)
- Executive Order 14424 tells USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations was answered by Farm Bureau urges USDA to retain meatpacking rules (Farm Bureau asked that the rules be retained and highlighted in the report to the president, addressing the U.S. Department of Agriculture review required by Executive Order 14424.)

## Where sources disagree or fall silent

- DOJ has confirmed investigations of the Big Four packers and requested records from retailers, but has not disclosed findings, charges, or evidence of collusion or unlawful pricing.
- The available sources do not establish how much of the Argentine or other-countries duty-free quota has actually entered the United States, or whether imported product was sold 25% below market prices as contemplated by the August proclamation.
- It remains unclear whether limited reopenings at Douglas and Santa Teresa will restore a meaningful share of pre-closure Mexican feeder-cattle imports, especially given the earlier operational pause at Douglas and continuing screwworm controls.
- The September 1.0% monthly decline in the BLS beef index and Farm Bureau's 16-cent ground-beef sample decline sit alongside an August ground-beef average that was 7.9% above a year earlier and USDA's forecast of a 9.4% annual increase; the durability and breadth of any retail price relief are not yet clear.
- USDA programs seek to retain heifers and add processing options, but the January and July inventory data still showed a shrinking herd; the timing and scale of herd rebuilding remain unresolved.
- The mandatory country-of-origin-labeling review has a consultation deadline, but no decision on legal authority or a labeling rule has been announced.

## What to watch next

- Oct 23, 2026: USDA NASS releases October Cattle on Feed report — The report will update feedlot placements and marketings, indicating near-term supplies of cattle headed for slaughter. (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Reports_by_Release_Day/)
- Oct 30, 2026: Second other-countries temporary beef quota tranche closes — The deadline ends entry under the second 100,000-metric-ton duty-free tranche and may clarify use of the temporary import allocation. (https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-17842.pdf?1787930108=)
- Oct 31, 2026: Final other-countries temporary beef quota tranche opens — The last 100,000-metric-ton tranche can add imported beef supply under the August quota expansion. (https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17842/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer)
- Nov 10, 2026: USDA releases November WASDE report and BLS releases October CPI — The releases will update the federal beef supply outlook and show whether consumer food-price pressure changed after the quota intervention began. (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)
- Nov 20, 2026: USDA NASS releases November Cattle on Feed report — The report will update cattle inventories, placements, and marketings heading into 2027. (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Reports_by_Release_Day/)
- Nov 30, 2026: Final other-countries temporary beef quota tranche closes — This is the final entry deadline for the 300,000-metric-ton allocation created by the August proclamation. (https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-17842.pdf?1787930108=)
- Dec 3, 2026: USDA-USTR consultation on mandatory beef country-of-origin labeling is due — USDA and USTR must consult on whether existing authority may permit mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef. (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/09/supporting-americas-ranchers/)
- Dec 10, 2026: USDA releases December WASDE report and BLS releases November CPI — The reports will update the year-end supply outlook and consumer beef-price trend heading into 2027. (https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)
- Dec 18, 2026: USDA NASS releases December Cattle on Feed report — The report will provide another read on feedlot supply before the next annual cattle inventory report. (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Reports_by_Release_Day/)
- Dec 31, 2026: Final Argentine lean-beef quota tranche closes — The fourth and final 20,000-metric-ton Argentine allocation is scheduled to close at year end. (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-02-13/pdf/2026-03050.pdf)

## Who is involved

- U.S. Department of Agriculture (regulator): Leads the federal response through beef-industry plans, processor funding, herd-retention programs, trade actions, and market oversight.
- Donald Trump (person): Ordered or backed the packer investigation, signed the quota proclamations, and directed reviews of livestock-market enforcement and beef labeling.
- Brooke Rollins (person): As Agriculture Secretary, closed and later phased open the Mexican cattle border and announced USDA's beef-industry initiatives.
- National Agricultural Statistics Service (regulator): Measures cattle inventory, slaughter, production, and feedlot activity that define the underlying supply shortfall.
- Office of the United States Trade Representative (regulator): Must consult with USDA on whether authorities allow mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef.
- U.S. Department of Justice (regulator): Is conducting a criminal antitrust investigation of major beef packers and has sought information from eight grocery chains.
- USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (regulator): Closed the Mexican border to live cattle over New World screwworm and manages the phased reopening and import protocols.
- U.S. government (regulator): Issuer of Executive Orders 14424 and 14425.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (regulator): Publishes the CPI and retail food-price series that track consumer beef-price changes.
- Mexico (regulator): Supplies feeder cattle to U.S. feedlots; trade was halted over screwworm risk and is now reopening through limited ports.
- Texas Animal Health Commission (regulator): Released areas from the Infested Zone 09 quarantine and movement restrictions.
- USDA (regulator): Prepared and scheduled the reopening of the Santa Teresa livestock crossing.
- American Farm Bureau Federation (company): Has documented cattle-cycle conditions and urged USDA to preserve meatpacking protections while criticizing expanded beef imports.
- Argentina (regulator): Received an additional 80,000-metric-ton 2026 duty-free quota for lean beef trimmings under the February proclamation.
- Colin Woodall (person): As NCBA chief executive, he said government-subsidised below-market beef was not the way to rebuild the American herd.
- Department of the Interior (regulator): Partnered with USDA to expand grazing access on federal rangeland as a long-term supply response.
- National Cattlemen's Beef Association (company): Opposed the import measures, arguing that additional low-priced beef undermines incentives to rebuild the U.S. herd.
- New World screwworm (other): The animal-health threat that led to the 2025 border closure and continues to limit how Mexican cattle imports can resume.
- Stanley Woodward (person): As Associate Attorney General, sent the July requests for beef-pricing records to eight grocery chains.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection (regulator): Administers quota entry procedures for the lean-beef-trimmings allocations.
- Amazon (company): One of eight grocery chains included in DOJ's expanded beef-price inquiry.
- beef and veal (product): Product category covered by the reported beef index.
- Cargill (company): It was one of the Big Four beef packers in the Justice Department's criminal antitrust investigation.
- Chuck Grassley (person): He said the president ought to stop talking about beef prices.
- CME Group (company): Exchange associated with the live- and feeder-cattle futures discussed in market reporting.
- Consumer Price Index (other): Measures the reported monthly price-index changes.
- Costco (company): One of eight grocery chains included in DOJ's expanded beef-price inquiry.
- Department of Health and Human Services (regulator): Federal department that joined the October 2025 beef-industry announcement.
- Department of Homeland Security (regulator): Confirmed officers' presence in Kansas and said they were not conducting worksite raids.
- Derrell Peel (person): Oklahoma State University Extension economist cited on beef-cow slaughter.
- Doug Burgum (person): Secretary of the Interior who joined the October 2025 beef-industry announcement.
- Economic Research Service (regulator): Publishes the federal food-price outlook, including its forecast for a 9.4% increase in 2026 beef and veal prices.
- Federal Trade Commission (regulator): Was directed under Executive Order 14364 to create a Food Supply Chain Security Task Force alongside DOJ.
- Food Safety and Inspection Service (regulator): Began enforcing voluntary "Product of USA" and related U.S.-origin claims on regulated meat products in January 2026.
- Ground beef (product): The politically prominent retail product targeted by the lean-beef import quotas because imported lean trimmings are blended into it.
- JBS (company): It was one of the Big Four beef packers in the Justice Department's criminal antitrust investigation.
- Kansas Livestock Association (other): Reported delayed fed-cattle shipments and associated costs.
- Kelly Loeffler (person): Small Business Administrator who joined the October 2025 beef-industry announcement.
- Kroger (company): One of eight grocery chains asked by DOJ for beef pricing, costs, margins, and strategy records.
- National Beef Packing (company): It was one of the Big Four beef packers in the Justice Department's criminal antitrust investigation.
- New Mexico Border Authority (regulator): Was reported as preparing with USDA for the Santa Teresa livestock-crossing reopening.
- Oklahoma State University Extension (other): Institution affiliated with the economist reporting on cattle-cycle data.
- R.J. Layher (person): American Farm Bureau Federation representative quoted on retaining the rules.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (person): Secretary of Health and Human Services who joined the October 2025 beef-industry announcement.
- Santa Teresa Port of Entry (other): New Mexico crossing through which live-cattle imports were reported to have resumed.
- Small Business Administration (regulator): Federal agency that joined the October 2025 beef-industry announcement.
- Todd Blanche (person): As Acting Attorney General, publicly confirmed DOJ's criminal antitrust investigation into major beef packers.
- Tyson Foods (company): It was one of the Big Four beef packers in the Justice Department's criminal antitrust investigation.
- U.S. beef industry (other): Industry covered by the USDA Economic Research Service forecast.
- U.S. beef-cow producers (other): Producers affected by changes in beef-cow slaughter.
- U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (regulator): USDA agency that reported the October opening of the Hermosillo sterile fly dispersal facility.
- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (regulator): Agency identified in the reported workforce-disruption context.
- USDA Economic Research Service (regulator): Publishes forecasts for beef and veal consumer-price changes.
- USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (regulator): Measures the cattle herd, slaughter, production, and feedlot supply that underpin the beef shortage.
- Walmart (company): One of eight grocery chains included in DOJ's expanded beef-price inquiry.
- Zippy Duvall (person): American Farm Bureau Federation president who called for the import-plan rollback.

## Changelog

- Oct 14, 2026: Added 1 entry: 2026-10-14 U.S. beef index falls 1.0 percent in September. Added 1 hand-verified entry by the editor.
- Oct 10, 2026: Added 2 hand-verified entries by the editor. Added 2 entries: 2026-10 Sterile fly dispersal facility opens in Hermosillo; 2026-10-09 Farm Bureau urges USDA to retain meatpacking rules.
- Oct 7, 2026: Added 1 entry: 2026-09-16 Texas releases Infested Zone 09 from screwworm restrictions. Added 1 entry: 2026-10-06 Texas modifies New World screwworm Infested Zone 06.
- Oct 2, 2026: Added 3 entries: 2026-09-23 Farm Bureau says its ground-beef sample showed a 16-cent price decline; 2026-10-01 Final Argentine lean-beef quota tranche opens; 2026-10-01 Second other-countries lean-beef quota tranche opens.
- Sep 30, 2026: Added 3 entries: 2026-09 Beef-cow slaughter is 13.7 percent below year-earlier level; 2026-09-25 ERS forecasts 9.4 percent rise in 2026 beef and veal prices; 2026-09-25 KLA reports delayed cattle shipments amid ICE workforce disruption.
- Sep 26, 2026: Added 3 entries: 2026-08 U.S. commercial beef output and cattle slaughter decline; 2026-09-21 Texas releases one screwworm infested zone and modifies another; 2026-09-24 Live-cattle imports resume through Santa Teresa.
- Sep 18, 2026: Added 2 entries: 2026-08 U.S. average ground-beef price rises in August; 2026-09-17 USDA schedules Santa Teresa cattle-port reopening for September 24.
- Sep 12, 2026: Added 9 entries: 2023-01-01 U.S. cattle inventory falls to 89.3 million head; 2024-01-01 U.S. cattle inventory declines to 87.2 million head; 2025-01-01 U.S. cattle inventory reaches 86.7 million head; 2025-10-22 Federal departments announce Plan to Fortify the American Beef Industry and 5 more. Added 19 hand-verified entries by the editor.

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