# Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil

- URL: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows
- Topic: Energy · Tags: Energy, Energy prices, Iran, Oil, Shipping
- Updated: Oct 16, 2026 · 30 dated entries

## Summary

War that began on 28 February disrupted oil and LNG trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran closed the strait on 2 March. A 18 June US-Iran memorandum of understanding led to increased shipping and lower July price forecasts, but attacks on shipping, a renewed US blockade of Iranian ports, insurance-related sanctions, and constrained transits undermined that recovery. EIA still expected millions of barrels per day of Middle East crude production to remain shut in late in 2026, while producers used alternative routes, facilitated transits, and ship-to-ship transfers. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September after the Saudi East-West Pipeline disruption, even as the IEA later estimated total Hormuz oil flows had recovered to 10.9 million barrels per day; the central question is whether that recovery can persist safely and restore the remaining lost supply and product trade.

## Key moments

- Feb 28, 2026: War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz
- Mar 2, 2026: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
- Mar 2, 2026: Ras Laffan LNG facility goes offline after an attack
- Mar 10, 2026: Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen
- Jun 9, 2026: IMO says safe passage through Hormuz does not exist
- Jul 7, 2026: After a June 18 memorandum between Washington and Tehran, traffic resumes and EIA cuts its price forecast by $14
- Jul 14, 2026: CENTCOM resumes blockade of traffic at Iranian ports
- Aug 11, 2026: One month after the reopening, EIA raises its shut-in estimate again — the constraints are back
- Sep 9, 2026: The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in
- Sep 15, 2026: Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption
- Oct 6, 2026: Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon
- Oct 14, 2026: Flows through the strait recover to 10.9 million barrels a day, and the IEA says demand is what broke

## EIA forecast for the 2026 Brent average

| Date | Value | Entry |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | $79/b | Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen |
| Apr 7, 2026 | $96/b | EIA has to model something it has never modelled: a closed Strait of Hormuz, and then a reopening |
| May 12, 2026 | $95/b | EIA starts publishing chokepoint flows, because the closure showed nobody had the numbers |
| Jun 9, 2026 | $95/b | The world is burning a million barrels a day less, and that is what is capping the price |
| Jul 7, 2026 | $82/b | After a June 18 memorandum between Washington and Tehran, traffic resumes and EIA cuts its price forecast by $14 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | $87/b | One month after the reopening, EIA raises its shut-in estimate again — the constraints are back |
| Sep 9, 2026 | $91/b | The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in |
| Oct 6, 2026 | $96/b | Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon |

## Middle East crude production shut in

| Date | Value | Entry |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | 5.7 million b/d | The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4.5 million b/d | Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon |

## Timeline (newest first)

### Oct 15, 2026 — Crude petroleum prices to US producers jump 28.3 percent in a month

In the September producer price report the index for crude petroleum jumped 28.3 percent, leading the rise in unprocessed goods for intermediate demand. Further down the chain diesel fuel rose 21.0 percent and gasoline 20.3 percent. The IEA had flows through the strait recovering to 10.9 million barrels a day the day before; this is what the months of disruption behind that recovery cost at the first stage of US production, before any of it reaches a pump.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2189 (Update)
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 15, 2026 · https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm — "Leading the September increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand, the index for crude petroleum jumped 28.3 percent."
- Editor's note: Hand-written from the release on 2026-10-16.

### Oct 14, 2026 — Flows through the strait recover to 10.9 million barrels a day, and the IEA says demand is what broke

The IEA's October report put total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz up 3.7 million barrels a day on the month to 10.9 million, helped by Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers. It also forecast world oil demand falling 2.5 million barrels a day year on year in the fourth quarter and 2.6 million on average in 2026, with diesel a quarter of the drop — the supply side mending while the demand side does not. North Sea Dated averaged $116.89 in September, $26.17 above August.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2151 (Report)
- Source: International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026 — "Robust Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers helped lift total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by 3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d, while the swift return of East-West pipeline flows increased overall bypass exports by 970 kb/d to 5.6 mb/d."

### Oct 11, 2026 — IMO reports two seafarers missing from PETRO DOLPHIN

The International Maritime Organization reported that two seafarers were missing from the product tanker PETRO DOLPHIN. The IMO identified the vessel as IMO 1072294.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2166 (Update)
- Source: International Maritime Organization · Oct 13, 2026 · https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/hottopics/pages/middle-east-strait-of-hormuz.aspx — "PETRO DOLPHIN (IMO 1072294) - 11 October - Two seafarers missing."
- Editor's note: The IMO page lists “PETRO DOLPHIN (IMO 1072294) - 11 October - Two seafarers missing.” The page context dates the update to 11 October 2026.

### Oct 10, 2026 — U.S. forces disable M/V Ocean Molica in Gulf of Oman

U.S. Central Command said its forces disabled the cargo vessel M/V Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman after its crew ignored warnings and attempted to run the naval blockade against Iran. The vessel was also known as Arika Sun.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2165 (Regulatory)
- Source: U.S. Central Command · Oct 10, 2026 · https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4623817/us-forces-disable-cargo-vessel-attempting-to-violate-blockade/ — "U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Oct. 10, after the ship’s crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to run the ongoing naval blockade against Iran."
- Editor's note: CENTCOM's cited release states that its forces disabled M/V Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on Oct. 10 after repeated warnings were ignored and it attempted to run the blockade against Iran. It also identifies the vessel as also known as the Arika Sun.

### Oct 7, 2026 — IEA members support accelerating March oil-stock releases

IEA member governments supported accelerating oil-stock releases announced in the March 2026 collective action. They said the releases should be completed as soon as possible.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1964 (Response)
- Source: IEA · Oct 7, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/news/statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-meeting-of-iea-member-governments-on-7-october-2026 — "At today’s meeting, IEA Member governments expressed support for accelerating the oil stock releases announced in the Collective Action of March 2026 with a view to completing them as soon as possible."
- Editor's note: The cited IEA statement says that member governments supported accelerating the March 2026 Collective Action oil-stock releases to complete them as soon as possible. Its title identifies the meeting date as 7 October 2026.

### Oct 6, 2026 — Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon

The October outlook recorded the worst month of the whole episode for prices. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, and EIA raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $105 — $14 above the previous month's — citing falling global inventories and tight diesel markets. US retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September and diesel $6.29. Shut-ins were expected to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 as facilitated transits, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers expanded. The outlook's own indicator table put the 2026 Brent average at $96 a barrel and 2027 at $84.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1948 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php — "The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $114 per barrel (b) in September, $23/b higher than in August. EIA forecasts Brent will average $105/b in 4Q26, $14/b higher than in last month’s forecast, as Middle East disruptions contribute to falling global inventories and tight diesel markets keep prices high."

### Sep 22, 2026 — East-West Pipeline partially resumes flows after repair

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows as of 22 September. Vortexa ship-tracking data indicated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1963 (Shipment)
- Source: EIA · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf — "Daily prices eased somewhat during the last week of September as the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was repaired and partially resumed flows as of September 22."
- Source: EIA · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf — "Ship tracking data from Vortexa indicates that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia increasingly used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman’s coast."
- Editor's note: The cited EIA report states that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows as of September 22. It also attributes the reported slight September increase in Strait of Hormuz shipments and ship-to-ship transfers along Oman’s coast to Vortexa tracking data. Source swapped from the live steo_text.pdf, which EIA overwrites every month, to the archived October 2026 STEO at the same wording. Source swapped from the live steo_text.pdf, which EIA overwrites every month, to the archived October 2026 STEO at the same wording.

### Sep 15, 2026 — Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption

The disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September. The IEA also reported that attacks had caused the shutdown of the pipeline.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1962 (Update)
- Source: EIA · Oct 6, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf — "The disruption of the pipeline led to the daily Brent spot price reaching as high as $131/b on September 15, as buyers scrambled to secure near-term supplies due to the loss of Saudi exports."
- Source: IEA · https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets — "Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure by Iran-backed groups in both Yemen and Iraq also pose risks, having recently caused the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which brought 3.5 million barrels a day of crude exports to global markets in August."
- Editor's note: EIA states that the pipeline disruption drove the daily Brent spot price as high as $131/b on September 15. The IEA states that attacks by Iran-backed groups caused the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. Source swapped from the live steo_text.pdf, which EIA overwrites every month, to the archived October 2026 STEO at the same wording.

### Sep 9, 2026 — The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in

EIA pushed its assumption out to the end of 2026. Traffic through the strait would stay constrained through the fourth quarter, leaving an average of 5.7 million barrels a day of Middle East crude production shut in over that quarter, even as flows gradually increased and producers used alternative export routes. The 2026 Brent forecast rose again, to $91 a barrel.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1947 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Sep 9, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press592.php — "EIA expects constraints on traffic through the strait will continue through the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), leaving an average of 5.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production shut in during the quarter."

### Sep 2026 — Middle East refined-product and LPG shipments remain below pre-war levels

The International Energy Agency estimated that Middle East refined-product shipments rose to 1.9 million barrels per day in September and LPG shipments rose to 670,000 barrels per day. The report compared those levels with pre-war flows of 4.7 million barrels per day for refined products and 1.5 million barrels per day for LPG.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2169 (Shipment)
- Source: International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026 — "Refined products rose by 210 kb/d to 1.9 mb/d in September, while LPG increased by 90 kb/d to 670 kb/d – from pre-war levels of 4.7 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively."
- Editor's note: The IEA report states that Middle East refined-product shipments rose to 1.9 mb/d and LPG shipments to 670 kb/d in September, compared with pre-war levels of 4.7 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively.

### Sep 2026 — Global oil supply rises to 102.3 million barrels per day

The International Energy Agency estimated that global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels per day month on month to 102.3 million barrels per day in September. The agency said Gulf producers drove the increase.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2168 (Financial)
- Source: International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026 — "Global oil supply increased by 2.5 mb/d m-o-m to 102.3 mb/d in September, driven by Gulf producers."
- Editor's note: The IEA’s October 2026 Oil Market Report states that global oil supply increased by 2.5 mb/d month on month to 102.3 mb/d in September, driven by Gulf producers.

### Sep 2026 — Gulf producers' crude exports rise to 13.9 million barrels per day

The International Energy Agency estimated that crude exports from Gulf producers increased by 4.4 million barrels per day to 13.9 million barrels per day in September. The report said Saudi Arabia led the increase and exports reached over 75% of pre-war levels.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n2167 (Shipment)
- Source: International Energy Agency · Oct 14, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026 — "Crude oil exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, surged by 4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d in September, reaching over 75% of pre-war levels as supply recovered strongly and inventories were drawn down."
- Editor's note: The IEA’s cited October 2026 report states that Gulf crude exports, led by Saudi Arabia, surged by 4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d in September and exceeded 75% of pre-war levels.

### Aug 11, 2026 — One month after the reopening, EIA raises its shut-in estimate again — the constraints are back

The August outlook reversed part of July's optimism. EIA increased its estimate of shut-in Middle East crude production against the July forecast because transit through the strait was still constrained, and assumed those constraints would persist through August. It expected global inventories to fall and Brent to average $85 a barrel in the third quarter; the 2026 forecast went back up to $87.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1946 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Aug 11, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press591.php — "EIA has increased its estimates of shut-in crude oil production in the Middle East in the coming months compared with the July forecast as a result of continued constraints on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The forecast assumes those constraints persist through August."

### Jul 29, 2026 — OFAC designates firms in an IRGC-backed insurance scheme

OFAC said it was designating two firms involved in an IRGC-backed scheme. The scheme forced commercial vessels to purchase mandatory maritime insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1961 (Regulatory)
- Source: U.S. Treasury OFAC · Jul 29, 2026 · https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0581 — "OFAC is designating two firms integral to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-backed extortion scheme that forces commercial vessels to purchase mandatory maritime “insurance” to transit the Strait."
- Editor's note: The cited Treasury press release states that OFAC was designating two firms integral to an IRGC-backed extortion scheme that forces commercial vessels to purchase mandatory maritime insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz. It is dated 2026-07-29.

### Jul 14, 2026 — OFAC action includes more than 50 people, entities and vessels

OFAC said its action included more than 50 individuals, entities, and vessels connected to Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani and the Iranian regime. Treasury published the action on 14 July.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1960 (Regulatory)
- Source: U.S. Treasury OFAC · Jul 14, 2026 · https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0562 — "Today’s action includes more than 50 individuals, entities, and vessels that enable Shamkhani and the Iranian regime to continue profiting while the Iranian people remain burdened under the economic yoke imposed by their government."
- Editor's note: The Treasury press release dated July 14, 2026 states that OFAC's action included more than 50 individuals, entities, and vessels enabling Shamkhani and the Iranian regime.

### Jul 14, 2026 — CENTCOM resumes blockade of traffic at Iranian ports

U.S. Central Command said it would resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. It set the restart for 4 p.m. Eastern Time on 14 July.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1959 (Response)
- Source: CENTCOM · Jul 13, 2026 · https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4542098/us-forces-to-resume-naval-blockade-against-iran/ — "At the Commander in Chief's direction, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET."
- Editor's note: The cited CENTCOM release states that CENTCOM forces would resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET. The node's stated date matches the announced restart date.

### Jul 10, 2026 — OFAC acts after Iran resumes attacks on shipping

OFAC took action against Iranian financial facilitator Ali Ansari. Treasury said the action followed Iran's resumption of attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1958 (Regulatory)
- Source: U.S. Treasury OFAC · Jul 10, 2026 · https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0558 — "Today, following Iran’s resumption of attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action against Iranian financial facilitator Ali Ansari"
- Editor's note: The cited Treasury release states that OFAC took action against Iranian financial facilitator Ali Ansari following Iran’s resumption of attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The release is dated July 10, 2026. Quote trimmed in review: the stored version ended with a full stop the release does not have, because the sentence runs on into "(Ansari), who oversees...".

### Jul 7, 2026 — After a June 18 memorandum between Washington and Tehran, traffic resumes and EIA cuts its price forecast by $14

EIA raised its global production forecast, citing increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on June 18 to end the conflict and reopen the strait. It expected crude production and trade flows back near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026 and most shut-in production online by the first quarter of 2027. The 2026 Brent forecast fell to $82 a barrel from $96, and the 2027 forecast to $65.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1945 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Jul 7, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php — "Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased following the June 18 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran to end a months-long conflict and reopen the strait."

### Jun 25, 2026 — IMO reports attack on vessel after Hormuz transit

IMO reported an attack in the Gulf of Oman on a vessel that had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The report was issued on 25 June.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1957 (Response)
- Source: IMO · Jun 25, 2026 · https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/statement-on-the-attack-in-strait-of-hormuz-evacuation-plan-pause.aspx — "I have been informed of an attack today in the Gulf of Oman on a vessel which passed through the Strait of Hormuz."
- Editor's note: The IMO page is dated 25 June 2026 and states that it was informed of an attack that day in the Gulf of Oman on a vessel that had passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

### Jun 9, 2026 — IMO says safe passage through Hormuz does not exist

IMO said safe passage could not be considered to exist under the circumstances it described. The statement was issued on 9 June.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1956 (Response)
- Source: IMO · Jun 9, 2026 · https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/statement-no-safe-passage-strait-of-hormuz.aspx — "Under such circumstances, safe passage cannot be considered to exist."
- Editor's note: The IMO statement dated 09 June 2026 says that, under the described circumstances, safe passage cannot be considered to exist.

### Jun 9, 2026 — The world is burning a million barrels a day less, and that is what is capping the price

EIA cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast. High prices, reduced availability and government measures were curbing consumption, particularly in Asia, leaving the world using a million fewer barrels a day than the year before. The agency's point was uncomfortable — demand destruction, not restored supply, was holding Brent down. Abbey warned that any return to pre-conflict levels would have to reckon with a market that had already partly rearranged itself. The 2026 Brent average stayed at $95 a barrel, unchanged from May.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1944 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Jun 9, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press589.php — "Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred"

### May 12, 2026 — EIA starts publishing chokepoint flows, because the closure showed nobody had the numbers

Alongside the May outlook, EIA announced a new quarterly energy security dataset covering global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for both petroleum and LNG, with the first release the following day. Abbey named the two unknowns the dataset was meant to narrow — when oil flows resume through the strait, and how fast Middle Eastern producers restore output. The outlook's indicator table held the 2026 Brent average at $95 a barrel.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1943 (Announcement)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · May 12, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press588.php — "On Wednesday, May 13, EIA will release a new energy security dataset, which will be published quarterly, with information on global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG)."

### Apr 13, 2026 — Maritime restrictions begin affecting Iranian ports and coasts

Maritime access restrictions affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas took effect at 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026. UKMTO said the restrictions included locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1954 (Regulatory)
- Source: UKMTO · Apr 13, 2026 · https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260413_ukmto_advisory_035-26.pdf — "UKMTO have been informed that, effective from 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026, maritime access restrictions are being enforced affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz."
- Editor's note: The cited UKMTO advisory states that the restrictions were effective from 1400 UTC on 13 April 2026 and affected Iranian ports and coastal areas, including the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.

### Apr 7, 2026 — EIA has to model something it has never modelled: a closed Strait of Hormuz, and then a reopening

The April outlook was built on an assumption about how long the closure would last, because there was no precedent for either end of it. Administrator Tristan Abbey said full restoration of flows would take months and that fuel prices would keep rising until the variables resolved. The forecast for the 2026 Brent average jumped to $96 a barrel from $79 a month earlier, and retail gasoline to $3.70 a gallon.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1942 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Apr 7, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php — "First, to even run our model we have to make an assumption about the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Second, we know that the closure is forcing production to shut in, but we can only estimate these outages. Third, just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen."

### Mar 11, 2026 — IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels

The 32 IEA member countries agreed to make 400 million barrels from emergency reserves available to the market. The release was intended to address oil-market disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1953 (Response)
- Source: IEA · Mar 11, 2026 · https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict — "The 32 Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed today to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East."
- Editor's note: The agreement date is on the page, in its <time datetime="2026-03-11T14:05:00+00:00">11 March 2026</time> element; the fetcher strips markup, so a re-check that reports the date as absent is reading the stripped text, not the page.

### Mar 10, 2026 — Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen

In its first Short-Term Energy Outlook after military action began in the Middle East, EIA put the Brent spot price at $94 a barrel on March 9 — up about 50 percent since the start of the year — and tied the rise directly to falling petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shut-in Middle East production. The STEO's forecast for the 2026 average was $79 a barrel. Everything that follows on this page is measured against that number.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1941 (Report)
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Mar 10, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press584.php — "The Brent crude oil spot price has risen sharply following the onset of military action in the Middle East. Brent settled at $94 per barrel (b) on March 9, up about 50% from the beginning of the year and the highest since September 2023."

### Mar 2, 2026 — Ras Laffan LNG facility goes offline after an attack

The Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar had been offline since an attack on 2 March. The IEA identified it as the world's largest liquefaction facility.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1952 (Update)
- Source: IEA · https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets — "The Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, which is the world's largest liquefaction facility, has been offline since an attack on 2 March."
- Editor's note: The cited IEA page states that Ras Laffan had been offline since an attack on 2 March and identifies it as the world's largest liquefaction facility. The IEA page cited here is a standing overview of the Middle East and global energy markets that the agency updates as the situation develops, so the wording quoted is as it stood when this entry was checked on 2026-10-09, not a dated release.

### Mar 2, 2026 — Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March. EIA said the closure preceded an increase in tanker prices.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1951 (Update)
- Source: EIA · Mar 26, 2026 · https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67386 — "The price increase followed Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2."
- Editor's note: The EIA page states that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2 and that the resulting tanker-rate price increase followed the closure.

### Mar 1, 2026 — IMO reports merchant-vessel casualties in attacks

IMO reported at least one fatality and several seafarer injuries in attacks on merchant vessels. The statement was published on 1 March.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1950 (Response)
- Source: IMO · Mar 1, 2026 · https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/statement-on-the-strait-of-hormuz.aspx — "I am deeply concerned by reports of at least one fatality and several seafarers injured in attacks on merchant vessels."
- Editor's note: The IMO page, dated 01 March 2026, states that there were reports of at least one fatality and several seafarers injured in attacks on merchant vessels. The cited quote appears on the page.

### Feb 28, 2026 — War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz

A war in the region began on 28 February and impeded energy trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA described the resulting interruption as the largest supply disruption in global oil-market history.

- Entry: https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1949 (Update)
- Source: IEA · https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets — "The war in the region that began on 28 February has impeded energy trade flows through the Strait, creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
- Editor's note: The cited IEA page states that the war began on 28 February, impeded energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and created the largest supply disruption in global oil-market history. The IEA page cited here is a standing overview of the Middle East and global energy markets that the agency updates as the situation develops, so the wording quoted is as it stood when this entry was checked on 2026-10-09, not a dated release.

## Cause and effect

- War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz was answered by IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels (The IEA said the 400 million-barrel release was intended to address oil-market disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.)
- War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz led to Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as Middle East developments cloud the outlook; Miran the lone dissent [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n421] (The Middle East war that impeded energy trade through Hormuz provides the conflict and rising oil-price uncertainty cited when the FOMC held rates in March.)
- Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz led to Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids Hormuz [on https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1968] (Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz preceded Abu Dhabi's order, ten weeks into the closure, to accelerate a second Fujairah pipeline intended to expand export capacity outside the strait.)
- Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen led to Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as Middle East developments cloud the outlook; Miran the lone dissent [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n421] (EIA tied Brent's rise to reduced Hormuz shipments and shut-in Middle East production, while the FOMC said rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict clouded its outlook when it held rates.)
- Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen led to The window shuts: Middle East oil lifts yields, the 30-year rate returns to 6.30 percent [on https://whatledto.com/events/mortgage-rates-2025-2026#n1313] (EIA tied Brent's roughly 50 percent rise to reduced Hormuz shipments and shut-in Middle East production, while the mortgage-rate entry says Middle East oil lifted yields as the 30-year rate returned to 6.30 percent.)
- Brent is at $94 and the highest since 2023, and EIA says it is because shipments through Hormuz have fallen led to Four dissents at Powell's last full meeting as chair: one for a cut, three against the easing bias [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n422] (EIA tied Brent's rise to reduced Hormuz shipments and shut-in production, while the April FOMC described inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices.)
- Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the strait [on https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1978] led to Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption (Attacks shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline in early September, and the resulting pipeline disruption led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September.)
- The constraints are now expected to last the year, with 5.7 million barrels a day still shut in led to Cook sees continued inflation pressure in coming months [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1584] (EIA's September finding that Hormuz constraints would persist with 5.7 million barrels per day shut in supports Cook's later statement that higher oil prices and Middle East supply disruptions would continue to pressure inflation.)
- Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption led to Susan Collins cites insufficient inflation progress after rate increase [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1490] (The attack-related disruption of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline is a Middle East conflict development that Collins cited, along with persistent inflation, as a reason for supporting September's rate increase.)
- Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption led to Cook sees continued inflation pressure in coming months [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n1584] (The East-West Pipeline disruption drove Brent to $131, and Cook said higher oil prices and Middle East supply disruptions would continue to pressure inflation.)
- Brent averaged $114 in September, $23 above August, and diesel is at $6.29 a gallon led to September CPI accelerates to 3.7 percent, and gasoline is over half of the monthly rise [on https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n2147] (EIA recorded September's $114 average Brent price and elevated U.S. fuel prices during the disruption, while the CPI report said the Gulf disruption had reached headline inflation through a sharp gasoline and energy increase.)

## Where sources disagree or fall silent

- Can the 18 June reopening be considered durable when attacks on shipping resumed, the US blockade of Iranian-port traffic remains in force, and IMO-reported vessel incidents continued into October?
- How much oil is actually moving through Hormuz and how much production remains shut in? EIA has cautioned that transit data have been especially unreliable since the conflict began, and ship-tracking-based estimates should not be treated as precise physical-flow counts.
- Will the recovery in crude flows persist after the East-West Pipeline disruption, or will dependence on facilitated transits, alternative routes, and ship-to-ship transfers continue to limit exports?
- Why have crude flows recovered faster than refined-product and LPG shipments, which the IEA said in September remained well below pre-war levels?
- EIA's outlook changed sharply from a July expectation of near-pre-conflict crude production and trade flows by year-end to September and October forecasts that still showed substantial fourth-quarter shut-ins; the November forecast will show whether the latest improvement changes that view.
- How much of the easing in oil-market pressure will come from supply restoration versus the demand destruction reported by EIA and IEA, particularly in diesel consumption?

## What to watch next

- Nov 1, 2026: Eight OPEC+ countries meet on production — The group will review output after holding November production at its September level while Gulf exports still depend on constrained and alternative routes. (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/616-4-october-2026.html)
- Nov 10, 2026: EIA publishes November Short-Term Energy Outlook — The outlook is scheduled to update estimates for Hormuz constraints, Middle East shut-ins, inventories, Brent, and US fuel prices. (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.php)
- Nov 13, 2026: IEA publishes November Oil Market Report — The report is scheduled to update the independent assessment of Hormuz flows, alternative exports, supply, and demand through 2027. (https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/oil-market-report-omr)
- Nov 29, 2026: 42nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting — The full producer group is scheduled to revisit its cooperation framework after disrupted Gulf exports changed available supply. (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/605-7-june-2026.html)
- Dec 11, 2026: IEA publishes December Oil Market Report — The report is scheduled to provide another assessment of whether facilitated transits and alternative routes are producing a sustained recovery. (https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/oil-market-report-omr)

## Who is involved

- U.S. Energy Information Administration (regulator): Publishes monthly forecasts for Hormuz flows, shut-in production, inventories, Brent, and US fuel prices.
- International Energy Agency (regulator): Described the disruption as historically large, coordinated emergency stock releases, and estimates flows, supply, and demand.
- Iran (other): Closed the Strait of Hormuz, was linked by US authorities to renewed shipping attacks, and imposed or backed measures affecting vessel access and transit insurance.
- International Maritime Organization (regulator): Reported merchant-vessel casualties and attacks and said safe passage through the strait could not be considered to exist in June.
- Tristan Abbey (person): Said full restoration of Strait of Hormuz flows would take months and identified uncertainties around resumed flows and restored Middle East output.
- Office of Foreign Assets Control (regulator): Took action against Ali Ansari and designated firms in an IRGC-backed maritime-insurance scheme.
- Saudi Arabia (other): Led the September increase in Gulf crude exports, but its East-West Pipeline disruption helped drive the September price spike.
- East-West Pipeline (product): Saudi Arabia's route to the Red Sea was shut by attacks, helping drive the mid-September price spike, before partial flows resumed on 22 September.
- U.S. Central Command (regulator): Announced the July resumption of the Iranian-port blockade and said US forces disabled the Ocean Molica in October.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury (regulator): Took regulatory actions concerning Iranian financial and shipping-linked networks.
- Ali Ansari (person): Iranian financial facilitator designated by OFAC in July after Treasury cited renewed attacks on shipping.
- Arika Sun (other): Alternate name reported for M/V Ocean Molica.
- Brent crude (product): The main oil-price benchmark, which averaged $114 per barrel in September after averaging $94 on 9 March.
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (other): The organization Treasury said backed the scheme requiring commercial vessels to buy mandatory maritime insurance for Hormuz transits.
- M/V Ocean Molica (other): Cargo vessel disabled by US forces in the Gulf of Oman after CENTCOM said it attempted to run the Iranian-port blockade.
- Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani (person): Iranian figure connected to more than 50 individuals, entities, and vessels targeted in OFAC's 14 July action.
- PETRO DOLPHIN (other): Product tanker from which IMO reported two seafarers missing in October.
- Qatar (other): Hosts the Ras Laffan LNG facility, which went offline after a 2 March attack.
- Ras Laffan LNG facility (other): The world's largest liquefaction facility, according to the IEA, and a major LNG supply loss after the March attack.
- UK Maritime Trade Operations (regulator): Issued the April advisory on maritime access restrictions affecting Iranian ports and coastal areas.
- Vortexa (company): Provided ship-tracking data cited by EIA on September shipments and Saudi ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast.

## Changelog

- Oct 16, 2026: Linked 1 entry with Mortgage Rates: One Week Below 6 Percent, Then Back Above 7. Linked 1 entry with The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings. Added 1 hand-verified entry by the editor.
- Oct 14, 2026: Linked 1 entry with Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut. Linked 1 entry with The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings. Added 5 entries: 2026-09 Gulf producers' crude exports rise to 13.9 million barrels per day; 2026-09 Global oil supply rises to 102.3 million barrels per day; 2026-09 Middle East refined-product and LPG shipments remain below pre-war levels; 2026-10-10 U.S. forces disable M/V Ocean Molica in Gulf of Oman and 1 more. Linked 1 entry with The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings. Added 1 hand-verified entry by the editor.
- Oct 13, 2026: Linked 3 entries with The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings.
- Oct 9, 2026: Linked 1 entry with Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut. Linked 2 entries with The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings. Added 15 entries: 2026-02-28 War impedes energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz; 2026-03-01 IMO reports merchant-vessel casualties in attacks; 2026-03-02 Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz; 2026-03-02 Ras Laffan LNG facility goes offline after an attack and 11 more. Added 8 hand-verified entries by the editor.

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