{ "data_version": "1", "schema": "https://whatledto.com/data", "slug": "middle-east-oil-export-routes", "title": "Around the Strait: The Pipelines Gulf Oil Uses When Hormuz Is Shut", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes", "markdown": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes.md", "feed": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes/feed.xml", "vertical": "energy", "topic": "Energy", "status": "live", "tags": [ { "slug": "oil", "name": "Oil", "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/oil" }, { "slug": "pipelines", "name": "Pipelines", "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/pipelines" }, { "slug": "saudi-arabia", "name": "Saudi Arabia", "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/saudi-arabia" }, { "slug": "shipping", "name": "Shipping", "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/shipping" } ], "created_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.022019+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-10-14T14:58:27.422452+00:00", "last_researched_at": "2026-10-14T14:40:01.826431+00:00", "tldr": "Most Gulf oil normally crosses the Strait of Hormuz, while the IEA estimated in February that only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day could initially bypass it, chiefly through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. The usable capacity is uncertain because design ratings, operator claims and reported flows differ: Aramco says Petroline reached 7.0 million b/d, while Saudi Arabia later said flows had recovered to 5.8 million b/d after a September attack, and the IEA estimated total bypass exports at 5.6 million b/d in October. Those routes remain vulnerable: attacks cut or temporarily shut the East-West Pipeline, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have become both a supplementary outlet and a reported target. ADNOC is building a second Fujairah line due in 2027, but Iran’s Jask route remains unproven beyond a reported first test cargo, and Iraq’s Ceyhan route has only a stated allocation rather than demonstrated large-scale bypass flows.", "hero_image": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a7/Oil_pipelines%2C_jubail_desert%2C_Saudi_Arabia_-_panoramio.jpg/1280px-Oil_pipelines%2C_jubail_desert%2C_Saudi_Arabia_-_panoramio.jpg", "hero_credit": { "source": "commons", "photo_id": "File:Oil pipelines, jubail desert, Saudi Arabia - panoramio.jpg", "photographer": "Suresh Babunair", "photographer_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20161027094658/http://www.panoramio.com/user/4081300?with_photo_id=82917644", "photo_url": "https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_pipelines,_jubail_desert,_Saudi_Arabia_-_panoramio.jpg", "description": "Oil pipelines, jubail desert, Saudi Arabia", "license": "CC BY 3.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0" }, "entities": [ { "id": "adnoc", "name": "ADNOC", "kind": "company", "role": "Operates Abu Dhabi’s Habshan-Fujairah crude route and is accelerating the parallel West-East 1 pipeline." }, { "id": "bota", "name": "BOTAŞ", "kind": "company", "role": "Party to the agreement allocating Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity." }, { "id": "kpler", "name": "Kpler", "kind": "company", "role": "Reported that most Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship crude cargoes were likely UAE-origin, with the rest from Kuwait and Iraq." }, { "id": "north-oil-company", "name": "North Oil Company", "kind": "company", "role": "Iraqi producer allocated part of the 750,000 b/d Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity arrangement." }, { "id": "somo", "name": "SOMO", "kind": "company", "role": "Iraq’s state oil marketer, allocated 750,000 b/d of Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity in August." }, { "id": "somo-and-north-oil-company", "name": "SOMO and North Oil Company", "kind": "company", "role": "Received an agreement allocating 750,000 b/d of Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity." }, { "id": "saudi-aramco", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/saudi-aramco", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/saudi-aramco.json", "name": "Saudi Aramco", "kind": "company", "role": "Operates Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and reported that it reached a 7.0 million b/d maximum during the first quarter of 2026." }, { "id": "ceyhan", "name": "Ceyhan", "kind": "other", "role": "Türkiye’s Mediterranean export terminal for oil moved through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline." }, { "id": "fujairah", "name": "Fujairah", "kind": "other", "role": "UAE east-coast export hub outside Hormuz and endpoint for ADNOC’s current and planned crude pipelines." }, { "id": "islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps.json", "name": "IRGC", "kind": "other", "role": "Iranian military organization identified in the report in connection with the vessel-targeting account." }, { "id": "iran", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/iran", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/iran.json", "name": "Iran", "kind": "other", "role": "Built the Goreh-Jask route to export outside Hormuz, but the route has only a reported first cargo and no established continuing use in the timeline." }, { "id": "iraq", "name": "Iraq", "kind": "other", "role": "Country of origin for part of the remaining Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler." }, { "id": "kuwait", "name": "Kuwait", "kind": "other", "role": "Country of origin for part of the remaining Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler." }, { "id": "saudi-arabia", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/saudi-arabia", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/saudi-arabia.json", "name": "Saudi Arabia", "kind": "other", "role": "Country whose crude flows were routed through the East-West Pipeline and whose pipeline was shut after attacks." }, { "id": "united-arab-emirates", "name": "United Arab Emirates", "kind": "other", "role": "Likely origin of most Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes according to Kpler." }, { "id": "yanbu", "name": "Yanbu", "kind": "other", "role": "Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export outlet for crude moved through the East-West Pipeline." }, { "id": "abdulaziz-bin-salman", "name": "Abdulaziz bin Salman", "kind": "person", "role": "Said East-West Pipeline flows had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day and that the line resumed use within five or six days of the drone strike." }, { "id": "amin-nasser", "name": "Amin H. Nasser", "kind": "person", "role": "Saudi Aramco executive who made the statement on export routes and overseas storage." }, { "id": "khaled-bin-mohamed-bin-zayed-al-nahyan", "name": "Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan", "kind": "person", "role": "As Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince, directed ADNOC to accelerate the West-East 1 line." }, { "id": "abdulaziz-bin-salman", "name": "Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman", "kind": "person", "role": "Saudi energy minister who said Petroline had returned to 5.8 million b/d and set a prospective 10 million b/d pipeline-capacity target." }, { "id": "sultan-ahmed-al-jaber", "name": "Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber", "kind": "person", "role": "ADNOC executive associated with the announcement of the pipeline construction milestone." }, { "id": "abu-dhabi-crude-oil-pipeline-habshan-fujairah-pipeline", "name": "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Habshan-Fujairah pipeline)", "kind": "product", "role": "The UAE’s operating 400-km route to Fujairah, with a 1.5 million b/d nameplate rating and reported capacity near 1.8 million b/d." }, { "id": "abu-dhabi-crude-oil-pipeline-habshan-fujairah", "name": "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Habshan-Fujairah)", "kind": "product", "role": "Existing UAE pipeline to Fujairah, with a 1.5 million b/d nameplate and a reported capacity near 1.8 million b/d." }, { "id": "east-west-crude-pipeline-petroline", "name": "East-West Crude Pipeline (Petroline)", "kind": "product", "role": "Saudi pipeline system carrying crude from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the largest operational route avoiding Hormuz." }, { "id": "east-west-pipeline", "name": "East-West Pipeline", "kind": "product", "role": "Saudi crude pipeline affected by attacks, later used for Yanbu export flows, and shut again in September." }, { "id": "goreh-jask-pipeline-and-jask-oil-terminal", "name": "Goreh-Jask pipeline and Jask Oil Terminal", "kind": "product", "role": "Iranian Gulf of Oman export route reported to have roughly 1 million b/d capacity, but not counted by the IEA as a viable option." }, { "id": "iraq-t-rkiye-pipeline", "name": "Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline", "kind": "product", "role": "Northern Iraqi export route to Ceyhan that avoids Hormuz, with 750,000 b/d allocated in the reported agreement." }, { "id": "jask-oil-terminal", "name": "Jask Oil Terminal", "kind": "product", "role": "Terminal from which Iran's first reported crude cargo was exported." }, { "id": "khurais", "name": "Khurais", "kind": "product", "role": "Oil field for which the Saudi Ministry said capacity-restoration work was ongoing." }, { "id": "kirkuk-ceyhan-pipeline", "name": "Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline", "kind": "product", "role": "Pipeline route identified for planned Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil exports." }, { "id": "petroline", "name": "Petroline", "kind": "product", "role": "Saudi crude-export pipeline named in connection with the pipeline-capacity target." }, { "id": "west-east-1", "name": "West-East 1", "kind": "product", "role": "ADNOC’s planned parallel Fujairah pipeline, directed to be accelerated and due to enter operation in 2027 to double Fujairah export capacity." }, { "id": "west-east-1-pipeline", "name": "West-East 1 pipeline", "kind": "product", "role": "ADNOC’s second Fujairah crude line, reported 50% complete and due to be operational in 2027." }, { "id": "west-east-pipeline", "name": "West-East Pipeline", "kind": "product", "role": "Crude pipeline project that ADNOC said was 50% complete." }, { "id": "yanbu-terminal", "name": "Yanbu terminal", "kind": "product", "role": "Red Sea export endpoint for Saudi crude moved through the East-West Pipeline." }, { "id": "international-energy-agency", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/international-energy-agency", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/international-energy-agency.json", "name": "International Energy Agency", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Provides the baseline assessment of Hormuz volumes, available bypass capacity and subsequent bypass-export estimates." }, { "id": "iraq", "name": "Iraqi Ministry of Oil", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Said it expected procedures to enable direct Kirkuk exports through Ceyhan to be completed within days." }, { "id": "kurdistan-regional-government", "name": "Kurdistan Regional Government", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Agreed in March to export Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil through the route to Ceyhan." }, { "id": "saudi-ministry-of-energy", "name": "Saudi Ministry of Energy", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Reported the April attack’s throughput loss and later described the East-West Pipeline’s recovery after the September strike." }, { "id": "t-rkiye-ministry-of-energy-and-natural-resources", "name": "Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Announced the agreement allocating Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity to Iraqi entities." }, { "id": "us-energy-information-administration", "url": "https://whatledto.com/who/us-energy-information-administration", "json": "https://whatledto.com/who/us-energy-information-administration.json", "name": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "kind": "regulator", "role": "Attributed part of the projected decline in Middle East shut-in crude to alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers." } ], "nodes": [ { "id": 1971, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1971", "date": "2024-09-30", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal", "summary": "MEES reported that Iran exported its first crude oil cargo from Jask Oil Terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. The report identified the shipment as the terminal's first crude export cargo.", "type": "shipment", "entities": [ "Iran", "Jask Oil Terminal" ], "parties": [ "iran", "jask-oil-terminal" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The cited MEES page states that Iran exported the first crude oil cargo from Jask Oil Terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. It says the 2mn-barrel cargo loaded on 2024-09-30.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.mees.com/2024/10/25/news-in-brief/irans-jask-terminal-exports-first-cargo/d12d48c0-92d3-11ef-a43d-150b7932de10", "outlet": "MEES", "published": "2024-10-25", "quote": "Vessel tracking data from Kpler show that Iran has exported the first crude oil cargo from its Jask oil terminal located outside the Strait of Hormuz." } ] }, { "id": 1965, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1965", "date": "2026-02", "date_precision": "month", "title": "Twenty million barrels a day go through the strait, and at most five and a half can go around it", "summary": "The IEA's standing assessment of the chokepoint sets the arithmetic this page is about. Nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude and products were exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, around a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, and only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational crude pipelines that can re-route any of it. The agency put the available bypass capacity at 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day, and warned that the logistics of actually moving substantial volumes that way have not been robustly tested.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "International Energy Agency", "Saudi Arabia" ], "parties": [ "international-energy-agency", "saudi-arabia" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.031858+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-02", "quote": "Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational crude pipelines that could potentially re-route flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with an estimated 3.5 to 5.5 mb/d of available capacity. While additional capacity may exist in major pipelines to bypass the Strait, the logistics and supply chains needed to re-route and export substantial flows have not been robustly tested." } ] }, { "id": 1966, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1966", "date": "2026-02", "date_precision": "month", "title": "Two pipelines, three different numbers each: design capacity, operator claim, and what is actually flowing", "summary": "The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline runs 400 km from Habshan to Fujairah with a nameplate of 1.5 million barrels a day and a reported current capacity near 1.8 million; the UAE was already using about 1.1 million of it, leaving room for perhaps 700,000 more. Saudi Arabia's Petroline is two lines from Abqaiq to Yanbu with a design capacity of 5 million barrels a day, which Aramco said in March 2025 it had raised to 7 million — a level the IEA notes has not been tested at sustainable flows. In early 2026 only about 2 million barrels a day of it was in use.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "International Energy Agency", "Saudi Arabia", "Saudi Aramco" ], "parties": [ "international-energy-agency", "saudi-arabia", "saudi-aramco" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.031995+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-02", "quote": "The system is composed of two lines with a total design capacity of 5 mb/d of crude oil. In March 2025, Aramco reported that it had increased capacity to 7 mb/d, but sustainable flows have not been tested at this level. As of early 2026, it is estimated that about 2 mb/d of the pipeline’s capacity is used, leaving between 3 and 5 mb/d of spare capacity, depending on operational conditions and available export capacity on the Saudi West Coast." } ] }, { "id": 1967, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1967", "date": "2026-02", "date_precision": "month", "title": "Iran built its own way around the strait and has never used it", "summary": "The Goreh-Jask pipeline and the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman were inaugurated in 2021 to give Iran an export route outside the strait it periodically threatens to close, with a reported capacity of a million barrels a day. A single test cargo left Jask in late 2024 and nothing since. The IEA does not count it as a viable export option, which is the asymmetry underneath the whole story — the country closing the strait has no working bypass of its own, while the two countries it blocks do.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "International Energy Agency", "Iran" ], "parties": [ "international-energy-agency", "iran" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.032059+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-02", "quote": "A test load was exported from Jask in late 2024, but no further oil has been exported from Jask since then." } ] }, { "id": 1972, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1972", "date": "2026-03-17", "date_precision": "day", "title": "KRG agreed to export Kirkuk and Kurdish oil through the Ceyhan route", "summary": "The Kurdistan Regional Government said it agreed to export oil from Kirkuk fields alongside oil from Kurdistan Region fields through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline. The Iraqi News Agency reported that the Iraqi Ministry of Oil hoped the process would be completed within days to export Kirkuk oil directly.", "type": "announcement", "entities": [ "Kurdistan Regional Government", "Iraq", "Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "kurdistan-regional-government", "iraq", "kirkuk-ceyhan-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The KRG statement dated 17 March 2026 confirms its agreement to export Kirkuk and Kurdistan Region oil through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline. INA’s 17 March 2026 report quotes the Oil Ministry as hoping the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline work would be completed within days to enable direct Kirkuk exports.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://gov.krd/english/news-and-announcements/posts/2026/march/statement-by-the-krg-negotiating-team-regarding-oil-exports/", "outlet": "Kurdistan Regional Government", "published": "2026-03-17", "quote": "The KRG expressed its agreement to export oil from the Kirkuk fields alongside oil from the Kurdistan Region’s own fields through the Kurdistan Region–Ceyhan pipeline." }, { "url": "https://ina.iq/en/economy/46706-oil-ministry-clarifies-export-procedures-via-turkish-port-of-ceyhan.html", "outlet": "Iraqi News Agency", "published": "2026-03-17", "quote": "It is hoped that it will be completed within the next few days so that it can be used to export Kirkuk oil directly." } ] }, { "id": 1973, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1973", "date": "2026-04-09", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Attack cut East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 b/d", "summary": "Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said an attack included a pumping station on the East-West Pipeline. It said the attack caused a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput.", "type": "other", "entities": [ "Saudi Ministry of Energy", "East-West Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "saudi-ministry-of-energy", "east-west-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The cited SPA page attributes the statement to an official source at Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy and states that an attack included an East-West Pipeline pumping station, causing a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput. It is dated April 9, 2026.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2556681", "outlet": "Saudi Press Agency / Saudi Ministry of Energy", "published": "2026-04-09", "quote": "These attacks included one of the pumping stations on the East-West Pipeline, leading to a loss of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in throughput." } ] }, { "id": 1979, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1979", "date": "2026-05-10", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Aramco tells shareholders Petroline reached its maximum 7 million barrels a day, the number the IEA said had never been tested", "summary": "In its first-quarter results Aramco said the East-West Pipeline had \"sharply ramped up\" to reach its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels a day during the quarter, supporting exports from Saudi Arabia's west coast, and chief executive Amin Nasser said the line had proven itself. It is the operator's own number for the figure the IEA had recorded in March 2025 as a claim whose sustainable flows had not been tested — and it arrived in a results release rather than an engineering disclosure, so it still states a capacity reached rather than a volume sustained.", "type": "financial", "entities": [ "Saudi Aramco", "Amin Nasser" ], "parties": [ "saudi-aramco", "amin-nasser" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:14.963174+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2026/aramco-announces-first-quarter-2026-results", "outlet": "Saudi Aramco", "published": "2026-05-10", "quote": "East-West Pipeline sharply ramped up to reach its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day in Q1, supporting exports via Saudi Arabia’s west coast" } ] }, { "id": 1968, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1968", "date": "2026-05-15", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids Hormuz", "summary": "Ten weeks into the closure, Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince directed ADNOC to accelerate the West-East 1 line, a pipeline running parallel to the existing Habshan-Fujairah route and intended to double the company's export capacity through Fujairah. It is due to be operational in 2027. The decision converts a standing hedge against a Hormuz closure into a construction schedule, and it is the only new bypass capacity anyone has committed to since the strait shut.", "type": "announcement", "entities": [ "ADNOC", "Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan" ], "parties": [ "adnoc", "khaled-bin-mohamed-bin-zayed-al-nahyan" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.032107+00:00", "note": "Official source added: https://adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2026/khaled-bin-mohamed-bin-zayed--chairs-meeting-of-executive", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/sheikh-khaled-adnoc-meeting-west-east-pipeline-project", "outlet": "Khaleej Times", "published": "2026-05-15", "quote": "Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has directed Adnoc on Friday to accelerate the delivery of the new West-East Pipeline project, which will double the oil giant's export capacity through Fujairah." }, { "url": "https://adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2026/khaled-bin-mohamed-bin-zayed--chairs-meeting-of-executive", "outlet": "ADNOC", "published": "2026-05-15", "quote": "His Highness directed ADNOC to accelerate delivery of the project, as the company moves forward into a new phase of world-scale project execution to meet global energy demand." } ] }, { "id": 2171, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n2171", "date": "2026-05-20", "date_precision": "day", "title": "ADNOC said the second West-East Pipeline was 50% complete", "summary": "ADNOC said the second West-East crude pipeline was 50% complete. It said delivery was being accelerated toward 2027.", "type": "announcement", "entities": [ "ADNOC", "Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber", "West-East Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "adnoc", "sultan-ahmed-al-jaber", "west-east-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-14T14:57:36.523474+00:00", "note": "ADNOC’s May 20, 2026 release says it was accelerating construction of a second pipeline to double export capacity through Fujairah, that it was already 50 percent complete, and that delivery was being accelerated toward 2027.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2026/new-investment-ai-and-freedom-of-navigation-key-to-building-a-resilient-energy-system", "outlet": "ADNOC", "published": "2026-05-20", "quote": "Today it is already 50 percent complete, and we are accelerating delivery toward 2027." } ] }, { "id": 1975, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1975", "date": "2026-06", "date_precision": "month", "title": "IEA said Saudi Arabia ramped East-West Pipeline flows for Yanbu exports", "summary": "The International Energy Agency said Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through the East-West Pipeline. It said the flows were for export through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.", "type": "shipment", "entities": [ "Saudi Arabia", "East-West Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "saudi-arabia", "east-west-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The cited IEA commentary, dated 2026-06-22, states that Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through its East-West Pipeline for export via the Red Sea port of Yanbu.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-06-22", "quote": "Saudi Arabia rapidly ramped up crude oil flows through its East-West pipeline for export via the Red Sea port of Yanbu." } ] }, { "id": 1976, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1976", "date": "2026-06", "date_precision": "month", "title": "Kpler said most Gulf of Oman transfer cargoes were likely UAE-origin", "summary": "Kpler said most crude cargoes loaded through Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship operations were likely from the United Arab Emirates. It said the remaining cargoes comprised Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels.", "type": "shipment", "entities": [ "Kpler", "United Arab Emirates", "Kuwait", "Iraq" ], "parties": [ "kpler", "united-arab-emirates", "kuwait", "iraq" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The cited Kpler page, dated June 17, 2026, states that crude oil loaded from the Gulf of Oman after STS operations was mostly likely UAE-origin, with the remainder comprising Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://cn.kpler.com/blog/returning-persian-gulf-barrels-risk-a-short-term-supply-glut", "outlet": "Kpler", "published": "2026-06-17", "quote": "Most of these cargoes are likely UAE-origin, with the remainder comprising Kuwaiti and Iraqi barrels." } ] }, { "id": 1977, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1977", "date": "2026-08-01", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Agreement allocated 750,000 b/d of Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline capacity", "summary": "Türkiye's Energy Ministry said an agreement allocated 750,000 barrels per day of pipeline capacity to SOMO and North Oil Company. The allocated amount was a portion of the pipeline's daily capacity.", "type": "announcement", "entities": [ "BOTAŞ", "SOMO", "North Oil Company", "Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "bota", "somo", "north-oil-company", "iraq-t-rkiye-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "The ministry page dated 2026-08-01 states that 750,000 barrels of the pipeline’s daily capacity were allocated to SOMO/NOC. It explicitly describes this quantity as part of the pipeline’s daily capacity.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://enerji.gov.tr/haber-detay?id=31887", "outlet": "Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources", "published": "2026-08-01", "quote": "İmzalanan anlaşma kapsamında, boru hattı günlük kapasitesinin 750 bin varillik kısmı SOMO/NOC şirketlerine tahsis edildi." } ] }, { "id": 1978, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1978", "date": "2026-09", "date_precision": "month", "title": "Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the strait", "summary": "The IEA reported that attacks on the pipeline carrying Saudi crude to Yanbu shut it down in early September, curtailing bypass flows further. For the weeks it was down, the single largest alternative to the Strait of Hormuz was unavailable at the same time as the strait itself.", "type": "delay", "entities": [ "Saudi Arabia", "East-West Pipeline" ], "parties": [ "saudi-arabia", "east-west-pipeline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.443077+00:00", "note": "Repaired in review. The entry as proposed carried a second source, an AP report of a three-to-five-week repair estimate, whose quote is not on that page; the AP source and the repair-estimate claim were both removed. The date was also moved from 10 September to month precision, because the IEA says \"early September\" and no opened source gives the day.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/commentaries/oil-markets-strain-to-plug-the-gap-left-by-middle-east-supply-shortfall", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-09-18", "quote": "Attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline that carries oil to Yanbu resulted in its shutdown in early September, curtailing bypass flows further." } ] }, { "id": 1969, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1969", "date": "2026-10-06", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Saudi Arabia says Petroline is back to 5.8 million barrels a day, five or six days after the strike on it", "summary": "Energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a GCC forum panel in Manama that flows through the East-West Pipeline had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day, and that the line had been back in use within five or six days of the drone strike that hit it the previous month. The figure is an operator statement rather than an observed flow, and it is almost three times what the IEA had recorded running through the line at the start of the year.", "type": "response", "entities": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Abdulaziz bin Salman" ], "parties": [ "saudi-arabia", "abdulaziz-bin-salman" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.032152+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/6/saudi-arabia-says-east-west-pipeline-pumping-5-8-million-bpd", "outlet": "Al Jazeera", "published": "2026-10-06", "quote": "Not everyone knows that within five or six days, we began using the pipeline again after the major attack that struck it" } ] }, { "id": 1970, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1970", "date": "2026-10-06", "date_precision": "day", "title": "EIA now credits the workarounds with bringing shut-in production down", "summary": "In its October outlook EIA attributed the expected fall in Middle East shut-in crude — from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million in the first quarter of 2027 — to facilitated transits of the strait together with alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers. It is the first time the agency has put the bypass routes, rather than the strait reopening, at the centre of its recovery path.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "U.S. Energy Information Administration" ], "parties": [ "us-energy-information-administration" ], "published_at": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.032197+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php", "outlet": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "published": "2026-10-06", "quote": "EIA expects oil production and exports out of the Middle East to gradually increase with facilitated transits through the Strait of Hormuz and as producers use alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers." } ] }, { "id": 2172, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n2172", "date": "2026-10-12", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Saudi minister set a 10 million b/d pipeline-capacity target", "summary": "Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia could reach 10 million barrels per day of pipeline capacity within two to three years. The statement described a prospective capacity target.", "type": "announcement", "entities": [ "Saudi Ministry of Energy", "Abdulaziz bin Salman", "Saudi Aramco", "East-West Pipeline", "Petroline" ], "parties": [ "saudi-ministry-of-energy", "abdulaziz-bin-salman", "saudi-aramco", "east-west-pipeline", "petroline" ], "published_at": "2026-10-14T14:57:36.523474+00:00", "note": "The cited page reports that Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia was considering expanding pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels a day within two to three years. It was published October 12, 2026 and includes the quoted statement.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://gcaptain.com/saudi-eyes-10-million-barrels-a-day-of-oil-pipe-capacity/", "outlet": "Bloomberg, republished by gCaptain", "published": "2026-10-12", "quote": "We may end up with 10 million barrels within the next two to three years" } ] }, { "id": 2174, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n2174", "date": "2026-10-12", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar are reported targeted", "summary": "Al Jazeera reported that multiple vessels were targeted overnight on Sunday into Monday, among them two outbound tankers and one at anchorage off the Omani port of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are said to be taking place. No official advisory confirms the incident. Sohar anchorage is one of the transfer points the bypass route on this page depends on.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "Iran", "IRGC" ], "parties": [ "iran", "islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps" ], "published_at": "2026-10-14T14:57:36.523474+00:00", "note": "The cited Al Jazeera article, published October 12, 2026, contains the quoted statement verbatim and supports all details in the summary.", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/12/iran-sets-crosshairs-on-us-uae-oil-shuttle-out-of-strait-of-hormuz", "outlet": "Al Jazeera", "published": "2026-10-12", "quote": "Multiple vessels were targeted overnight Sunday to Monday, including two outbound tankers and one in anchorage near Oman’s port city of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are allegedly being conducted." } ] }, { "id": 2152, "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n2152", "date": "2026-10-14", "date_precision": "day", "title": "Bypass exports reach 5.6 million barrels a day, past the top of the capacity the IEA estimated", "summary": "The October report put overall bypass exports up 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million, on the swift return of East-West pipeline flows. That is above the 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day of available alternative capacity the IEA's own chokepoint assessment had estimated in February, and it names 11 September as the date of the bombing that took the pipeline out — a day this page previously had only at month precision.", "type": "report", "entities": [ "International Energy Agency" ], "parties": [ "international-energy-agency" ], "published_at": "2026-10-14T14:20:56.293536+00:00", "note": "", "image": "", "image_credit": { "credit": "", "source_url": "", "image_url": "", "terms_url": "", "mode": "licensed", "photographer": "", "photographer_url": "", "photo_url": "", "license": "", "license_url": "" }, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026", "outlet": "International Energy Agency", "published": "2026-10-14", "quote": "The 11 September bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline and an exponential rise in freight rates compounded the rally." } ] } ], "relations": [ { "from": 1971, "to": 1967, "kind": "contradicts", "note": "MEES reported that Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal, which conflicts with the existing node's statement that Iran had never used its route around the strait." } ], "links": [ { "from": { "event": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows", "id": 1951, "date": "2026-03-02", "title": "Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1951" }, "to": { "event": "middle-east-oil-export-routes", "id": 1968, "date": "2026-05-15", "title": "Abu Dhabi orders a second Fujairah pipeline built faster, to double the capacity that avoids Hormuz", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1968" }, "kind": "causes", "note": "Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz preceded Abu Dhabi's order, ten weeks into the closure, to accelerate a second Fujairah pipeline intended to expand export capacity outside the strait." }, { "from": { "event": "middle-east-oil-export-routes", "id": 1978, "date": "2026-09", "title": "Attacks shut the East-West Pipeline in early September, closing the main way around the strait", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/middle-east-oil-export-routes#n1978" }, "to": { "event": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows", "id": 1962, "date": "2026-09-15", "title": "Brent reaches $131 after East-West Pipeline disruption", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows#n1962" }, "kind": "causes", "note": "Attacks shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline in early September, and the resulting pipeline disruption led Brent's daily spot price to reach $131 per barrel on 15 September." } ], "key_node_ids": [ 1965, 1966, 1971, 1973, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1969, 2152 ], "catalysts": [ { "date": "2026-11-03", "title": "Saudi Aramco reports third-quarter results", "why": "The results should provide the operator’s account of Petroline’s performance during the September shutdown and subsequent recovery.", "source_url": "https://www.aramco.com/en/investors" }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "title": "EIA releases its November Short-Term Energy Outlook", "why": "The outlook will show whether EIA still attributes falling Middle East shut-ins partly to bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers.", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.php" }, { "date": "2027", "title": "ADNOC’s West-East 1 pipeline is due to be operational", "why": "The parallel Fujairah line is the only committed new bypass capacity in the timeline and is intended to double ADNOC’s export capacity through Fujairah.", "source_url": "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/sheikh-khaled-adnoc-meeting-west-east-pipeline-project" } ], "open_questions": [ "The IEA’s February estimate capped available bypass capacity at 5.5 million b/d, but its October report put bypass exports at 5.6 million b/d; it is unclear whether the difference reflects changed capacity, methodology, or a temporary level above the earlier estimate.", "Aramco’s reported 7.0 million b/d Petroline maximum and the Saudi minister’s later 5.8 million b/d figure are operator statements; the timeline does not establish how long either rate was sustained or provide independently observed flows.", "Iran’s Jask route is described by the IEA-based node as effectively unused and not viable, but MEES reported a first crude cargo from Jask in late 2024.", "The timeline does not establish the current sustained throughput, spare capacity, or terminal constraints for the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline beyond its nameplate and reported capacity figures.", "The 750,000 b/d Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline allocation does not show how much oil is actually flowing to Ceyhan or whether the route can reliably add export volumes.", "Reported attacks on tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar lack an official advisory confirmation, leaving the disruption to transfer operations unclear." ], "metrics": [ { "key": "petroline-throughput", "name": "Crude moving through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline", "unit": "million b/d", "kind": "line", "points": [ { "node_id": 1966, "date": "2026-02", "value": 2, "quote": "As of early 2026, it is estimated that about 2 mb/d of the pipeline’s capacity is used" }, { "node_id": 1969, "date": "2026-10-06", "value": 5.8, "quote": "flows through the East-West Pipeline had recovered to 5.8 million barrels a day" } ] } ], "related": [ { "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows", "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flows.json" }, { "slug": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026", "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026", "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026.json" } ], "changelog": [ { "date": "2026-10-14T14:58:27.423937+00:00", "kind": "link", "summary": "Linked 1 entry with Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.", "node_ids": [ 1968 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-14T14:58:09.347902+00:00", "kind": "summary", "summary": "Chart data refreshed: 2 point(s) across 1 metric(s).", "node_ids": [] }, { "date": "2026-10-14T14:58:09.347898+00:00", "kind": "summary", "summary": "Summary, key players and catalysts refreshed.", "node_ids": [] }, { "date": "2026-10-14T14:57:36.576153+00:00", "kind": "publish", "summary": "Added 3 node(s): 2026-05-20 ADNOC said the second West-East Pipeline was 50% complete; 2026-10-12 Saudi minister set a 10 million b/d pipeline-capacity target; 2026-10-12 Tankers and a ship-to-ship anchorage near Sohar are reported targeted.", "node_ids": [ 2171, 2172, 2174 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-14T14:40:23.588843+00:00", "kind": "research", "summary": "Research run found 4 candidate node(s).", "node_ids": [ 2171, 2172, 2173, 2174 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-14T14:20:56.300362+00:00", "kind": "seed", "summary": "Seeded 1 hand-verified node(s) from middle-east-oil-export-routes.yaml.", "node_ids": [ 2152 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:47:13.988200+00:00", "kind": "link", "summary": "Linked 1 entry with Hormuz Disrupted: The Closure, the Reopening That Did Not Hold, and $114 Oil.", "node_ids": [ 1978 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:46:59.251390+00:00", "kind": "summary", "summary": "Chart data refreshed: 2 point(s) across 1 metric(s).", "node_ids": [] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:46:59.251386+00:00", "kind": "summary", "summary": "Summary, key players and catalysts refreshed.", "node_ids": [] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:46:23.493617+00:00", "kind": "publish", "summary": "Added 7 node(s): 2024-09-30 Iran exported its first crude cargo from Jask Oil Terminal; 2026-03-17 KRG agreed to export Kirkuk and Kurdish oil through the Ceyhan route; 2026-04-09 Attack cut East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000 b/d; 2026-06 IEA said Saudi Arabia ramped East-West Pipeline flows for Yanbu exports and 3 more.", "node_ids": [ 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:46:14.971637+00:00", "kind": "seed", "summary": "Seeded 1 hand-verified node(s) from middle-east-oil-export-routes.yaml.", "node_ids": [ 1979 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:44:14.253891+00:00", "kind": "research", "summary": "Research run found 8 candidate node(s).", "node_ids": [ 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09T09:24:08.040357+00:00", "kind": "seed", "summary": "Seeded 6 hand-verified node(s) from middle-east-oil-export-routes.yaml.", "node_ids": [ 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970 ] } ], "license": { "holder": "What Led To", "terms": "https://whatledto.com/methodology#reuse", "summary": "Quote entries with attribution and a link to the entry; do not republish whole timelines or train models on the text." } }