{
  "data_version": "1",
  "schema": "https://whatledto.com/data",
  "slug": "fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
  "title": "The Fed's Rate Path: From the 2024 Cuts to Warsh's First Meetings",
  "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026",
  "markdown": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026.md",
  "feed": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026/feed.xml",
  "vertical": "economy",
  "topic": "Economy",
  "status": "live",
  "tags": [
    {
      "slug": "federal-reserve",
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/federal-reserve"
    },
    {
      "slug": "inflation",
      "name": "Inflation",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/inflation"
    },
    {
      "slug": "interest-rates",
      "name": "Interest rates",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/tags/interest-rates"
    }
  ],
  "created_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.208791+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-09T06:16:56.900197+00:00",
  "last_researched_at": "2026-09-06T02:43:01.492693+00:00",
  "tldr": "The Fed began easing in September 2024 with a half-point cut after holding rates at 5.25 to 5.5 percent for 14 months, then made two further cuts that year. It paused through most of 2025, slowed balance-sheet runoff in March, resumed cutting in September, and reached a 3.5 to 3.75 percent target range in December 2025; that range has held through five 2026 meetings. Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as chair in May 2026, and the debate has shifted from cuts to whether elevated inflation warrants an increase, with three regional-bank presidents dissenting for a hike in July and Warsh warning in August that inflation remained too high. The other central tension is institutional independence: Trump pressed for lower rates and sought to remove Governor Lisa Cook, but the Supreme Court ruled that governors have statutory for-cause protection and must receive notice and an opportunity to respond; the White House has restarted its removal process.",
  "hero_image": "https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1633059050703-0f1b50828402?ixid=M3w5OTg1Nzd8MHwxfGFsbHx8fHx8fHx8fDE3ODg2NjM1NTB8&ixlib=rb-4.1.0&w=1600&q=80&auto=format&fit=crop",
  "hero_credit": {
    "source": "unsplash",
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    "photographer": "Joshua Woroniecki",
    "photographer_url": "https://unsplash.com/@joshuaworoniecki?utm_source=whatledto&utm_medium=referral",
    "photo_url": "https://unsplash.com/photos/a-large-building-with-columns-and-a-flag-on-the-corner-Skfy8ljB7X4?utm_source=whatledto&utm_medium=referral",
    "description": "Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Building",
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  },
  "entities": [
    {
      "name": "CME Group",
      "kind": "company",
      "role": "Its FedWatch tool is cited for futures-implied probabilities of FOMC policy moves."
    },
    {
      "name": "Freddie Mac",
      "kind": "company",
      "role": "Its weekly 30-year mortgage-rate measure tracks the consumer borrowing effects of changing rate expectations."
    },
    {
      "name": "Consumer Price Index",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Inflation measure reported by BLS."
    },
    {
      "name": "System Open Market Account",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Account used for FOMC-directed market operations."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. Senate",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Confirmed Miran as a governor and confirmed Warsh as governor and chair in May 2026."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. Treasury market",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Market in which the 10-year Treasury yield rose, according to the June FOMC minutes."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. energy market",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Sector referenced in the March CPI report."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. labor market",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Subject of the payroll and unemployment reports."
    },
    {
      "name": "federal-funds futures market",
      "kind": "other",
      "role": "Market whose pricing was cited in the January FOMC minutes."
    },
    {
      "name": "Abbe Lowell",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Cook's lawyer in her challenge to the attempted removal."
    },
    {
      "name": "Austan Goolsbee",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Chicago Fed president who preferred no December 2025 cut."
    },
    {
      "name": "Beth Hammack",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Cleveland Fed president who dissented against the December 2024 cut and later joined dissents favoring a July 2026 rate increase."
    },
    {
      "name": "Bill Pulte",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "FHFA director who alleged that Cook claimed two primary residences in 2021."
    },
    {
      "name": "Christopher Waller",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Fed governor who dissented for a July 2025 and January 2026 rate cut and was considered in Trump's chair search."
    },
    {
      "name": "Dan Scavino",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Wrote Cook a notice letter giving her until August 26 to answer the mortgage allegations."
    },
    {
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "President who repeatedly demanded lower rates, nominated Stephen Miran and Warsh, and initiated efforts to remove Governor Lisa Cook."
    },
    {
      "name": "James E. Boasberg",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Chief judge who granted the Fed Board's motion to quash the Justice Department subpoenas."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jeffrey Schmid",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Kansas City Fed president who dissented against cuts in October and December 2025."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jerome H. Powell",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Fed chair through May 2026, who led the 2024-25 easing cycle, faced White House pressure and Justice Department subpoenas, and remains a governor."
    },
    {
      "name": "Jerome Powell",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Fed chair from 2018 to May 15, 2026; stayed on as a governor."
    },
    {
      "name": "John Fetterman",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Crossed party lines to vote for Warsh's Senate confirmation."
    },
    {
      "name": "John Roberts",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "As chief justice, joined the decision denying the government's application to remove Cook while her suit proceeds."
    },
    {
      "name": "Kevin Warsh",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Former Fed governor whom Trump nominated and the Senate confirmed as chair; he began leading the FOMC in May 2026 and has emphasized that inflation remains too high."
    },
    {
      "name": "Lisa Cook",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Federal Reserve governor targeted for removal over mortgage-related allegations; she has challenged the action in court and remains in office while the dispute continues."
    },
    {
      "name": "Lorie Logan",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Dallas Fed president who objected to the April 2026 easing bias and dissented for a July rate increase."
    },
    {
      "name": "Michelle Bowman",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Fed governor who dissented for a smaller September 2024 cut and later joined Christopher Waller in dissenting for a July 2025 cut."
    },
    {
      "name": "Neel Kashkari",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Minneapolis Fed president who objected to the April 2026 statement's easing bias and dissented for a July rate increase."
    },
    {
      "name": "Stephen Miran",
      "kind": "person",
      "role": "Trump's former Council of Economic Advisers chair, appointed as a Fed governor in September 2025; he repeatedly dissented for larger or earlier rate cuts."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal-funds target range",
      "kind": "product",
      "role": "The Fed's main policy-rate target, held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent since the December 2025 cut."
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Publishes employment and inflation data that have driven rate expectations, including the strong August 2026 payroll report."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Housing Finance Agency",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Its director, Bill Pulte, made the mortgage-related allegations cited by Trump in his attempt to remove Cook."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "The agency whose director publicized the mortgage-related allegations used by Trump in seeking Cook's removal."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Open Market Committee",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Sets the federal funds target range at eight scheduled meetings a year."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Sets the federal-funds target range and has moved from 2024-25 easing to holding rates amid renewed inflation concerns."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "It published the FOMC statements."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Its Desk implements FOMC operations and supplied market context in the minutes."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve Board",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "The central bank's governing body, responsible for Board appointments, balance-sheet policy, and the disputes involving Cook and Powell."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Set the federal-funds target, manage the balance sheet, and have faced increasingly divided votes over the appropriate policy stance."
    },
    {
      "name": "Supreme Court",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Held in June 2026 that Fed governors keep for-cause protection."
    },
    {
      "name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Held that Fed governors have statutory for-cause protection and must receive notice and an opportunity to respond before removal."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Released employment and consumer-price reports."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. Department of Justice",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Issued subpoenas to the Fed Board in an investigation Powell called a pretext; a federal judge later quashed the subpoenas."
    },
    {
      "name": "U.S. Supreme Court",
      "kind": "regulator",
      "role": "Held that the Federal Reserve Act's for-cause protection for governors is constitutional and required notice and an opportunity for Cook to respond before removal."
    }
  ],
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": 410,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n410",
      "date": "2024-09-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "The Fed starts cutting with a half-point move to 4.75 to 5 percent",
      "summary": "After holding at 5.25 to 5.5 percent for fourteen months, the FOMC opened its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut, saying it had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent while job gains had slowed. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favour of a quarter point, the first dissent by a governor since 2005. Mortgage rates had already fallen to about 6.1 percent in anticipation.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Michelle Bowman"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.215908+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
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        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2024-09-18",
          "quote": "In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 431,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n431",
      "date": "2024-11-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC lowers the federal-funds target range to 4.5 to 4.75 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on November 7, 2024.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page is readable and dated November 07, 2024. It states that the Committee lowered the target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent, matching the summary and quote.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2024-11-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 411,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n411",
      "date": "2024-12-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Third cut of 2024 takes the range to 4.25 to 4.5 percent; projections pencil in only two cuts for 2025",
      "summary": "The FOMC cut by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting, but the new projections showed just two cuts in 2025 instead of four and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented for no change. Markets fell sharply and the ten-year yield rose; the range would then stay unchanged for nine months as tariffs clouded the inflation outlook.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Beth Hammack"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216032+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241218a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2024-12-18",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 432,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n432",
      "date": "2025-01-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on January 29, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page is a Federal Reserve FOMC statement dated January 29, 2025, and states that the Committee maintained the target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250129a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-01-29",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 433,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n433",
      "date": "2025-03-19",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC reduces the monthly Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion",
      "summary": "Beginning in April, the FOMC reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Federal Reserve published the statement on March 19, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page is readable and states that, beginning in April, the Committee would reduce the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25 billion to $5 billion. It is dated March 19, 2025.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-03-19",
          "quote": "Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 434,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n434",
      "date": "2025-05-07",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent",
      "summary": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The Federal Reserve published the statement on May 7, 2025.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page is readable and is dated May 07, 2025. It states that the Committee decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250507a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve",
          "published": "2025-05-07",
          "quote": "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 412,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n412",
      "date": "2025-07-30",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Fifth straight hold at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with two governors dissenting for a cut",
      "summary": "Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point cut, the first time two governors had dissented together since 1993, as President Trump escalated demands for lower rates and named Powell's replacement a running theme. The statement said growth had moderated, the labour market remained solid and inflation was somewhat elevated. Trump had toured the Fed's renovation site the week before.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Michelle Bowman",
        "Christopher Waller",
        "Jerome Powell"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216093+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250730a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-07-30",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 413,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n413",
      "date": "2025-08-22",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jackson Hole: Powell says the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy",
      "summary": "In his final Jackson Hole speech as chair Powell said the labour market was in a curious kind of balance with both supply and demand for workers slowing, that tariff effects on prices were now visible, and that with policy restrictive the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks might warrant a change in stance. The Fed also released its revised framework, dropping the 2020 average inflation targeting language. Markets took it as a signal for a September cut.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216141+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
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        "terms_url": "",
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      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-08-22",
          "quote": "Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 414,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n414",
      "date": "2025-08-25",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump says he is firing Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations; Cook refuses to go",
      "summary": "In a letter posted on Truth Social the president said he was removing Cook for cause, effective immediately, citing FHFA director Bill Pulte's allegation that she had claimed two primary residences in 2021. No president had ever removed a Fed governor. Cook said no cause existed and she would not resign, hired Abbe Lowell and sued; a district court and the D.C. Circuit let her keep her seat while the case went to the Supreme Court.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Lisa Cook",
        "Bill Pulte",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216185+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-hes-firing-federal-reserve-governor-lisa-cook-she-says-she-wont-resign",
          "outlet": "PBS News (AP)",
          "published": "2025-08-25",
          "quote": "Trump said in a letter posted on his Truth Social platform that he is removing Cook effective immediately because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 415,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n415",
      "date": "2025-09-16",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Stephen Miran sworn in as governor the day before the meeting, on leave from the White House",
      "summary": "The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers took the oath as a Fed governor one day after a party-line Senate confirmation and two weeks after his nomination, filling Adriana Kugler's seat with a term ending January 31, 2026. He took unpaid leave from the White House rather than resigning, which drew criticism about the Fed's independence, and voted at the next day's meeting.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Federal Reserve Board",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216231+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
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      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20250916a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-09-16",
          "quote": "President Trump nominated Dr. Miran on September 2, 2025, and he was confirmed by the United States Senate on September 15, 2025. His term as a member of the Board ends on January 31, 2026."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 416,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n416",
      "date": "2025-09-17",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "First cut of 2025: a quarter point to 4 to 4.25 percent, citing downside risks to employment",
      "summary": "The FOMC resumed easing after nine months, saying downside risks to employment had risen, and the projections showed two more cuts in 2025. Miran dissented on his first day in favour of a half-point cut; Bowman and Waller, who had dissented in July, voted with the majority. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.26 percent that week, the lowest in almost a year.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216275+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-09-17",
          "quote": "In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 417,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n417",
      "date": "2025-10-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Second cut to 3.75 to 4 percent; balance-sheet runoff to end December 1; dissents in both directions",
      "summary": "With the government shut down and most official data suspended, the committee cut again and announced it would stop shrinking its securities holdings on December 1. Miran again wanted a half point while Kansas City's Jeffrey Schmid wanted no change. Powell said a December cut was far from a foregone conclusion.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Jeffrey Schmid"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216315+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-10-29",
          "quote": "The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 418,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n418",
      "date": "2025-12-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Third cut of the year to 3.5 to 3.75 percent, over three dissents",
      "summary": "The FOMC delivered a third consecutive quarter-point cut, taking the range 75 basis points below its September level. Miran dissented for a larger cut while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold, the most dissents at a meeting since 2019. The projections showed only one cut in 2026, and this was the last change in the target range for at least the following nine months.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Austan Goolsbee",
        "Jeffrey Schmid"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216354+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2025-12-10",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 436,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n436",
      "date": "2026-01-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Powell calls Justice Department subpoenas pretexts",
      "summary": "Jerome H. Powell said the Justice Department subpoenas were pretexts. The statement concerned subpoenas served on the Federal Reserve Board.",
      "type": "response",
      "entities": [
        "Jerome H. Powell",
        "Federal Reserve Board",
        "U.S. Department of Justice",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The statement is dated January 11, 2026, and says the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas. Powell states that the stated reasons for the action were pretexts, using the quoted words.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20260111a.pdf",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-01-11",
          "quote": "Those are pretexts."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 419,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n419",
      "date": "2026-01-28",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "First hold of 2026 at 3.5 to 3.75 percent; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut",
      "summary": "The committee kept rates unchanged, saying job gains had remained low but the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilising and inflation remained somewhat elevated. Governors Miran and Waller, both seen as candidates for chair, dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. Two days later Trump announced his choice of chair.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Christopher Waller"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216394+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-01-28",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 420,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n420",
      "date": "2026-01-30",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump names Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed chair",
      "summary": "Ending a search that had run since the summer of 2025 and considered nearly a dozen names, including governors Waller and Bowman, Trump announced on Truth Social that former governor Kevin Warsh, 55, would be his nominee for chair when Powell's term ended in May. Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 who had called for regime change at the central bank, would take the board seat held by Miran, whose term expired the next day. Gold and silver fell on the pick as markets read it as less of a threat to independence.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216433+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/trump-nominates-kevin-warsh-for-federal-reserve-chair-to-succeed-jerome-powell.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-01-30",
          "quote": "President Donald Trump on Friday named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, ending a prolonged odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 440,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n440",
      "date": "2026-03-06",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "BLS reports February payrolls fell 92,000",
      "summary": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "U.S. labor market"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page is readable and identifies the release as Friday, March 6, 2026. It states that total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February and that the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent, using the quoted wording.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062026.htm",
          "outlet": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
          "published": "2026-03-06",
          "quote": "Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 442,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n442",
      "date": "2026-03-11",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Judge Boasberg grants the Fed Board's motion to quash subpoenas",
      "summary": "Chief Judge James E. Boasberg granted the Federal Reserve Board's motion to quash Justice Department subpoenas. The ruling concerned the Powell investigation.",
      "type": "legal",
      "entities": [
        "James E. Boasberg",
        "Jerome H. Powell",
        "Federal Reserve Board",
        "U.S. Department of Justice",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The memorandum opinion signed by Chief Judge James E. Boasberg on March 11, 2026 grants the Federal Reserve Board's Motion to Quash subpoenas concerning the investigation of Chair Jerome Powell. The quoted sentence appears in the opinion.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://cases.justia.com/federal/district-courts/district-of-columbia/dcdce/1%3A2026mc00012/288962/23/0.pdf",
          "outlet": "U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia",
          "published": "2026-03-11",
          "quote": "It will therefore grant the Board's Motion to Quash."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 421,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n421",
      "date": "2026-03-18",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent as Middle East developments cloud the outlook; Miran the lone dissent",
      "summary": "With oil prices rising on the conflict in the Middle East, the committee held for a second meeting and added that the implications for the U.S. economy were uncertain. Miran dissented alone for a quarter-point cut. Trump had formally sent Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216478+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-03-18",
          "quote": "The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 445,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n445",
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "BLS reports CPI rose 0.9 percent in March",
      "summary": "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report on April 10.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "Consumer Price Index",
        "U.S. energy market"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page states that CPI-U increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. Its release header is dated Friday, April 10, 2026.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm",
          "outlet": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
          "published": "2026-04-10",
          "quote": "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 422,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n422",
      "date": "2026-04-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Four dissents at Powell's last full meeting as chair: one for a cut, three against the easing bias",
      "summary": "The FOMC held for a third meeting, describing inflation as elevated in part because of global energy prices. Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported holding but objected to the statement's easing bias, the widest split under Powell. The Senate Banking Committee had advanced Warsh's nomination on a party-line vote the same day.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "Stephen Miran",
        "Beth Hammack",
        "Neel Kashkari",
        "Lorie Logan"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216517+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-04-29",
          "quote": "Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 423,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n423",
      "date": "2026-05-13",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Senate confirms Warsh 54 to 45, the narrowest vote for a Fed chair in the modern era",
      "summary": "Only Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman crossed party lines. The confirmation came as fresh data showed inflation well above 2 percent and producer-price pressures at a three-year high, and markets had stopped pricing cuts. Powell's chair term expired two days later; he said he would stay on the board at least until the investigation into the Fed's headquarters renovation was complete, the first former chair to remain as governor in nearly 80 years.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Jerome Powell",
        "U.S. Senate",
        "John Fetterman"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216556+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/13/kevin-warsh-wins-senate-confirmation-as-the-next-federal-reserve-chair.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-05-13",
          "quote": "The Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Warsh, ending a monthslong saga that began in the summer of 2025 and included an extensive search for Powell's successor. The vote was almost completely along party lines, with only Pennsylvania Democrat Sen. John Fetterman crossing over to vote for Warsh, who becomes the 11th Fed chair of the modern banking era."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 446,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n446",
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Federal Reserve names Powell chair pro tempore",
      "summary": "The Federal Reserve Board named Jerome H. Powell chair pro tempore. Powell was to serve in that role until Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chair.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Jerome H. Powell",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The page states that the Federal Reserve Board named Jerome H. Powell chair pro tempore and that he would serve until Kevin M. Warsh was sworn in as chair. It is dated May 15, 2026.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-05-15",
          "quote": "Powell will serve as chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in as the new chair."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 424,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n424",
      "date": "2026-05-22",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Warsh sworn in as chair at the White House; the FOMC elects him unanimously",
      "summary": "Justice Clarence Thomas administered the oath in the East Room with Trump present, saying he wanted Warsh to be totally independent. The Fed noted that Trump had formally nominated Warsh on March 4, the Senate had confirmed him as a governor on May 12 and as chair on May 13, and that his term as chair runs to May 21, 2030, with a board term to January 31, 2040. The same day the FOMC unanimously chose him as its chairman.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve Board",
        "Donald Trump"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216594+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-05-22",
          "quote": "President Donald J. Trump nominated Mr. Warsh on March 4, 2026. He was confirmed by the United States Senate to serve as a member of the Board on May 12, and as chairman of the Board on May 13. His term as chairman ends on May 21, 2030, and his term as a member of the Board ends on January 31, 2040."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 425,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n425",
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Warsh's first meeting: a unanimous hold and a rewritten, shorter statement",
      "summary": "The committee held at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a 12 to 0 vote, its first unanimous decision since June 2025, and issued a shorter statement in a new format that leads with the decision and reaffirms a policy of ample reserves. It described growth as solid despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, productivity and capital investment as strong, and inflation as elevated relative to target.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216631+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-06-17",
          "quote": "The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate."
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-06-17",
          "quote": "Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 426,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n426",
      "date": "2026-06-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Supreme Court, 5 to 4, keeps Cook in office: governors have for-cause protection and a right to notice and a hearing",
      "summary": "Chief Justice Roberts, joined by Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson, denied the government's application to remove Cook while her suit proceeds, holding that the Federal Reserve Act's for-cause protection is constitutional and that a governor must receive notice and some opportunity to respond before removal, which Cook had not. The Court said eliminating that protection was for Congress, even as it had allowed at-will removal at most other independent agencies.",
      "type": "legal",
      "entities": [
        "Supreme Court",
        "Lisa Cook",
        "Donald Trump",
        "John Roberts"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216672+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25a312_5468.pdf",
          "outlet": "Supreme Court of the United States",
          "published": "2026-06-29",
          "quote": "If the Federal Reserve’s for-cause removal protections are to be eliminated, that change must occur through the legislative process."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 449,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n449",
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "June FOMC minutes disclose Warsh task-force plans",
      "summary": "The June FOMC minutes said Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces. The task forces were to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.763351+00:00",
      "note": "The June 16–17, 2026 FOMC minutes state that Chairman Kevin Warsh described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy. The page’s last update is July 8, 2026, matching the node date.",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-08",
          "quote": "The Chairman described plans to establish five independent task forces to examine issues related to the broad conduct of monetary policy."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 427,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n427",
      "date": "2026-07-29",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Fifth straight hold; three regional presidents dissent in favour of a rate increase",
      "summary": "The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferring a quarter-point increase, the first dissents for a hike since 2019 and a sign the debate under Warsh had flipped from when to cut to whether to tighten. Inflation remained elevated relative to target and core PCE was running near 3.3 percent.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Beth Hammack",
        "Neel Kashkari",
        "Lorie Logan"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216710+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-07-29",
          "quote": "Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 428,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n428",
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Trump restarts the Cook removal with a notice letter and a 21-day deadline",
      "summary": "Following the Supreme Court's instruction that Cook was entitled to notice and a chance to respond, deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino wrote that the president was considering removing her and gave her until August 26 to answer the mortgage allegations. Her lawyers called the allegations as baseless as a year earlier and, in a five-page reply on August 26, noted that the Treasury secretary and the attorney general had faced similar accusations.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Donald Trump",
        "Lisa Cook",
        "Dan Scavino",
        "Abbe Lowell"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216748+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/08/trump-informs-lisa-cook-that-he-is-considering-her-removal/",
          "outlet": "SCOTUSblog",
          "published": "2026-08-07",
          "quote": "In a letter dated Aug. 5, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino notified Cook that Trump was “considering” whether to remove her from the Board of Governors."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 429,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n429",
      "date": "2026-08-28",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "Jackson Hole: Warsh says inflation is too high and the Fed may have work to do",
      "summary": "In his first Jackson Hole keynote, on his hundredth day as chair, Warsh declined to offer forward guidance or a reaction function, said this summer's better inflation readings did not show underlying trends had meaningfully improved, and set his standard as confidence that inflation is moving to target clearly and at sufficient speed. He also argued AI investment could lift growth substantially. Two-year yields jumped and futures moved to better than even odds of a September hike.",
      "type": "announcement",
      "entities": [
        "Kevin Warsh",
        "Federal Reserve Board"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216786+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm",
          "outlet": "Federal Reserve Board",
          "published": "2026-08-28",
          "quote": "Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 430,
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/fed-rate-path-2025-2026#n430",
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "date_precision": "day",
      "title": "August payrolls jump 162,000; traders put 60 percent odds on a hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting",
      "summary": "Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the strongest month since March, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent; bars and restaurants led and information jobs fell, possibly on AI investment. Short-dated Treasury yields rose and CME FedWatch showed about 60 percent odds of a quarter-point increase at the first meeting with new projections under Warsh, pending the August CPI and PPI reports the following week.",
      "type": "report",
      "entities": [
        "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "Federal Open Market Committee",
        "Kevin Warsh"
      ],
      "published_at": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.216823+00:00",
      "note": "",
      "image": "",
      "image_credit": {
        "credit": "",
        "source_url": "",
        "image_url": "",
        "terms_url": "",
        "mode": "licensed"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/jobs-report-august-2026.html",
          "outlet": "CNBC",
          "published": "2026-09-04",
          "quote": "Traders were still pricing in about 60% odds of a quarter percentage point increase at the central bank's policy meeting Sept. 15-16, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relations": [
    {
      "from": 410,
      "to": 411,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Three cuts in 2024, then a nine-month pause."
    },
    {
      "from": 412,
      "to": 413,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The July dissents foreshadowed the pivot Powell signalled in August."
    },
    {
      "from": 413,
      "to": 416,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The Jackson Hole signal was delivered in September."
    },
    {
      "from": 414,
      "to": 426,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Ten months from the firing letter to the Supreme Court ruling."
    },
    {
      "from": 415,
      "to": 416,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Miran was sworn in one day before his first dissent."
    },
    {
      "from": 418,
      "to": 419,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The December cut was the last move; 2026 has been all holds."
    },
    {
      "from": 420,
      "to": 423,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Announced in January, confirmed in May by the closest vote on record."
    },
    {
      "from": 423,
      "to": 424,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Sworn in nine days after confirmation."
    },
    {
      "from": 424,
      "to": 425,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Warsh's first meeting produced the first unanimous vote in two years."
    },
    {
      "from": 426,
      "to": 428,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The Court required notice and a hearing; the White House supplied one."
    },
    {
      "from": 427,
      "to": 429,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Three dissents for a hike in July, then the chair opened the door in August."
    },
    {
      "from": 429,
      "to": 430,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "Strong hiring pushed hike odds past even."
    },
    {
      "from": 410,
      "to": 431,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The November 7 rate reduction followed the September 18, 2024 reduction in the federal-funds target range."
    },
    {
      "from": 431,
      "to": 411,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The December 18, 2024 reduction followed the November 7, 2024 reduction."
    },
    {
      "from": 411,
      "to": 432,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The January 29, 2025 decision maintained the target range established after the December 18, 2024 cut."
    },
    {
      "from": 432,
      "to": 433,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The March 19, 2025 balance-sheet decision followed the January 29, 2025 FOMC rate decision."
    },
    {
      "from": 433,
      "to": 434,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The May 7, 2025 rate decision followed the March 19, 2025 FOMC decision."
    },
    {
      "from": 434,
      "to": 412,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The July 30, 2025 hold followed the May 7, 2025 hold at the same target range."
    },
    {
      "from": 423,
      "to": 446,
      "kind": "follows",
      "note": "The Board named Powell chair pro tempore after the Senate confirmed Warsh and before Warsh's swearing-in."
    }
  ],
  "links": [],
  "key_node_ids": [
    410,
    411,
    433,
    412,
    413,
    414,
    416,
    418,
    424,
    426,
    429,
    430
  ],
  "catalysts": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09",
      "title": "August CPI and PPI reports",
      "why": "The upcoming inflation releases could alter market expectations for whether the FOMC raises rates in September after the stronger-than-expected August jobs report.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/jobs-report-august-2026.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "title": "September 15-16 FOMC meeting and updated projections",
      "why": "This will be Warsh's first FOMC meeting with new projections, with traders recently assigning roughly a 60 percent probability to a quarter-point increase.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/04/jobs-report-august-2026.html"
    }
  ],
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether the August inflation reports will validate market expectations of a September rate increase or lead the FOMC to extend its run of holds.",
    "How Warsh's forthcoming projections and his planned monetary-policy task forces will change the committee's policy framework or communications.",
    "Whether Trump will formally remove Cook after reviewing her August response, and how the courts will resolve the underlying challenge if he does.",
    "Whether Powell will remain on the Board until the headquarters-renovation investigation is complete, as he said he intended to do."
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "key": "fed-funds-upper",
      "name": "Federal funds target range, upper bound",
      "unit": "%",
      "kind": "step",
      "points": [
        {
          "node_id": 410,
          "date": "2024-09-18",
          "value": 5,
          "quote": "the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
        },
        {
          "node_id": 431,
          "date": "2024-11-07",
          "value": 4.75,
          "quote": "The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 to 4.75 percent."
        },
        {
          "node_id": 411,
          "date": "2024-12-18",
          "value": 4.5,
          "quote": "Third cut of 2024 takes the range to 4.25 to 4.5 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 432,
          "date": "2025-01-29",
          "value": 4.5,
          "quote": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent."
        },
        {
          "node_id": 434,
          "date": "2025-05-07",
          "value": 4.5,
          "quote": "The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent."
        },
        {
          "node_id": 412,
          "date": "2025-07-30",
          "value": 4.5,
          "quote": "Fifth straight hold at 4.25 to 4.5 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 416,
          "date": "2025-09-17",
          "value": 4.25,
          "quote": "First cut of 2025: a quarter point to 4 to 4.25 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 417,
          "date": "2025-10-29",
          "value": 4,
          "quote": "Second cut to 3.75 to 4 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 418,
          "date": "2025-12-10",
          "value": 3.75,
          "quote": "Third cut of the year to 3.5 to 3.75 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 419,
          "date": "2026-01-28",
          "value": 3.75,
          "quote": "First hold of 2026 at 3.5 to 3.75 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 421,
          "date": "2026-03-18",
          "value": 3.75,
          "quote": "Hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent"
        },
        {
          "node_id": 425,
          "date": "2026-06-17",
          "value": 3.75,
          "quote": "The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate."
        },
        {
          "node_id": 427,
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "value": 3.75,
          "quote": "The FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "slug": "us-tariff-refund-litigation",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/us-tariff-refund-litigation",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/us-tariff-refund-litigation.json"
    },
    {
      "slug": "social-security-2027-cola",
      "url": "https://whatledto.com/events/social-security-2027-cola",
      "json": "https://whatledto.com/events/social-security-2027-cola.json"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07T05:52:44.053557+00:00",
      "kind": "summary",
      "summary": "Chart data refreshed: 13 point(s) across 1 metric(s).",
      "node_ids": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07T05:51:34.178649+00:00",
      "kind": "summary",
      "summary": "Chart data refreshed: 6 point(s) across 1 metric(s).",
      "node_ids": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-07T05:24:50.408287+00:00",
      "kind": "summary",
      "summary": "Summary, key players and catalysts refreshed.",
      "node_ids": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06T02:45:20.489953+00:00",
      "kind": "summary",
      "summary": "Summary, key players and catalysts refreshed.",
      "node_ids": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06T02:44:42.794446+00:00",
      "kind": "publish",
      "summary": "Added 10 node(s): 2024-11-07 FOMC lowers the federal-funds target range to 4.5 to 4.75 percent; 2025-01-29 FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent; 2025-03-19 FOMC reduces the monthly Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion; 2025-05-07 FOMC maintains the federal-funds target range at 4.25 to 4.5 percent and 6 more.",
      "node_ids": [
        431,
        432,
        433,
        434,
        436,
        440,
        442,
        445,
        446,
        449
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06T02:44:19.907382+00:00",
      "kind": "research",
      "summary": "Research run found 15 candidate node(s).",
      "node_ids": [
        435,
        436,
        437,
        438,
        439,
        440,
        441,
        442,
        443,
        444,
        445,
        446,
        447,
        448,
        449
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06T02:38:36.845643+00:00",
      "kind": "research",
      "summary": "Research run found 4 candidate node(s).",
      "node_ids": [
        431,
        432,
        433,
        434
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-06T02:35:47.224844+00:00",
      "kind": "seed",
      "summary": "Seeded 21 hand-verified node(s) from fed-rate-path-2025-2026.yaml.",
      "node_ids": [
        410,
        411,
        412,
        413,
        414,
        415,
        416,
        417,
        418,
        419,
        420,
        421,
        422,
        423,
        424,
        425,
        426,
        427,
        428,
        429,
        430
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  ],
  "license": {
    "holder": "What Led To",
    "terms": "https://whatledto.com/methodology#reuse",
    "summary": "Quote entries with attribution and a link to the entry; do not republish whole timelines or train models on the text."
  }
}